Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.42 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support

We discussed last week (6/21/23 Compass) how consolidation was likely, and so far that is what we have seen with the S&P 500 back to test the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023. We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4300. However, a break below 4300 could bring selling pressure, and potential support levels to watch would be 4165-4200 followed by 4050. Structurally higher core inflation and strong employment suggests the Fed will need to continue hiking rates -- and it appears market participants are starting to come to this same realization.

Russell 2000 (IWM), Dow, Equal-Weighted S&P 500 (RSP). The Russell 2000 (IWM), Dow, and equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) were all unable to break above resistance levels discussed in recent weeks, including $190, 34,280, and $153/$150, respectively. It is hard for us to call this a bull market if these indexes remain below these important levels. Moreover, the IWM is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see hold as support, but if $180 fails to hold we expect a trip back to $170... see chart below.
Financials/Banks. Financials (XLF) remain below 3.5-month resistance at $33.50 and the 200-day MA, and banks appear to be breaking key levels including $41.50 on the KRE and $35.50 on the KBE. The XLF is constructive as it remains above critical support at $30.50, but banks are a problem and should be avoided. Breakdowns in banks is not a healthy sign for the broad equity market... see page 3.
Technology, Industrials. Technology (XLK) has predictably pulled back after testing its 2021 highs at $177. Equal-weighted Technology (RSPT) is back to test 1+ year base support near $280 -- a logical place to expect a bounce. Industrials (XLI) are holding above base support at $103; this remains our favorite Sector to buy now... see page 4.
Big Picture Trends. Breadth remains constructive on the SPX and Russell 2000. Gold miners (GDX) have pulled back to support. Biotech (XBI) is rolling over... see pages 5-7.
Underlyings
AECOM

AECOM designs, builds, finances and operates infrastructure assets for governments, businesses and organizations. The company provides: planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design services to commercial and government clients in transportation, facilities, environmental, energy, water and government markets; construction services, including building construction and energy, infrastructure and industrial construction; as well as program and facilities management and maintenance, training, logistics, consulting, technical assistance, and systems integration and information technology services, for agencies of the United States government and for other national governments.

Construction Partners

Construction Partners is a holding company. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, the company provides a variety of products and services to infrastructure projects, with a focus on highways, roads, bridges, airports, and commercial and residential sites. The company's primary operations consist of manufacturing and distributing hot mix asphalt (HMA), paving activities, including the construction of roadway base layers and application of asphalt pavement, site development, including the installation of utility and drainage systems, mining aggregates, such as sand and gravel, that are used as raw materials in the production of HMA, and distributing liquid asphalt cement in connection with HMA production.

Copa Holdings S.A. Class A

Granite Construction Incorporated

Granite Construction is a holding company, which delivers infrastructure solutions for public and private clients. The company's segments are: Transportation, which focuses on construction and rehabilitation of roads, pavement preservation, bridges, rail lines, airports and marine ports; Water, which focuses on water-related construction and water management solutions; Specialty, which focuses on construction of various complex projects including infrastructure/site development, mining, public safety, tunnel and power projects; and Materials, which focuses on production of aggregates, asphalt and construction related materials as well as proprietary sanitary and storm water rehabilitation products.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock is a provider of dredging services. The company provides dredging services in the East, West, and Gulf Coasts of the U.S. and worldwide. The company operates in one operating segment, which is also the company's sole reportable segment and reporting unit. Dredging generally involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Domestically, the company's work generally is performed in coastal waterways and deep water ports. The U.S. dredging market consists of four primary types of work: capital, coastal protection, maintenance and rivers and lakes.

Huron Consulting Group Inc.

Huron Consulting Group is a consulting firm. The company partners with clients to develop strategies and implement solutions that enable the transformative change its clients need. The company's segments are: Healthcare, which provides care transformation, financial and operational, technology and analytics, and leadership development; Business Advisory, which provides services to large and middle market organizations, not-for-profit organizations, lending institutions, law firms, investment banks and private equity firms; and Education, which provides consulting and technology solutions to higher education institutions and academic medical centers.

IES Holdings Inc.

IES Holdings is a holding company. The company has four business segments: Commercial & Industrial, which provides electrical and mechanical design, construction, and maintenance services to the commercial and industrial markets in various regional markets and nationwide in certain areas such as the power infrastructure market; Communications, which provides technology infrastructure services to corporations and independent businesses; Infrastructure Solutions, which provides electro-mechanical solutions for industrial operations; and Residential, which provides electrical installation services for single-family housing and multi-family apartment complexes.

KBR Inc.

KBR provides services and technologies across the asset and program life-cycle within the government services and hydrocarbons industries. The company has three segments: Government Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions to defense, space, aviation and other programs and missions for military and other government agencies; Technology Solutions, which combines technologies, equipment and catalyst supply, digital solutions and associated knowledge-based services into a global business for refining, petrochemicals, inorganic and specialty chemicals; and Energy Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions across the upstream, midstream and downstream hydrocarbons markets.

MasTec Inc.

MasTec is an infrastructure construction company operating mainly throughout North America across a range of industries. The company's segments include: Communications, which performs engineering, construction, maintenance and customer fulfillment activities related to communications infrastructure; Oil and Gas, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance services on oil and natural gas pipelines and processing facilities; Electrical Transmission, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance of electrical transmission lines and substations; and Power Generation and Industrial, which performs installation and construction of power facilities.

MYR Group Inc.

MYR Group is a holding company of electrical construction service providers. Through its subsidiaries, the company serves the electric utility infrastructure, commercial and industrial construction markets located throughout the U.S. and Canada. The company manages its operations through two segments: Transmission and Distribution, which provides services on electric transmission and distribution networks and substation facilities; and Commercial and Industrial, which provides services such as the design, installation, maintenance and repair of commercial and industrial wiring, installation of traffic networks and the installation of bridge, roadway and tunnel lighting.

Primoris Services Corporation

Primoris Services, through its subsidiaries, provides a range of construction, fabrication, maintenance, replacement, and engineering services to main public and private utilities, petrochemical companies, energy companies, municipalities, state departments of transportation and other customers. The company installs, replaces, repairs and rehabilitates natural gas, refined product, water and wastewater pipeline systems; large diameter gas and liquid pipeline facilities; electric utility systems; and heavy civil projects, earthwork and site development. The company also constructs mechanical facilities and other structures. Finally, the company provides process and product engineering services.

Sterling Construction Company Inc.

Sterling Construction is a construction company that focuses in heavy civil construction and infrastructure rehabilitation as well as residential construction projects. The company operates primarily in Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas and Utah, as well as other states. The company's heavy civil construction projects include highways, roads, bridges, airfields, ports, light rail, water, wastewater and storm drainage systems, foundations for multi-family homes, commercial concrete projects and parking structures. Residential construction projects include concrete foundations for single-family homes.

Volaris Aviation Holding ADS

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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