Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.59 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the S&P 500). The S&P 500 is now above 4300-4325 -- a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023. It is increasingly likely that 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the S&P 500 is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder. We will need to see a break below 4300 in order to shift to a more defensive posture.

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Major Breakdown; Failed Breakout for 10-Year Treasury Yield. The U.S. dollar (DXY) broke below 1+ year support at $101, and the 10-year Treasury yield displays a false breakout, suggesting another test (or potential break) of 3.3%-3.4%. Uptrend violations in the DXY and 10-year yield in late-October/early-November of 2022 we
Underlyings
AECOM

AECOM designs, builds, finances and operates infrastructure assets for governments, businesses and organizations. The company provides: planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design services to commercial and government clients in transportation, facilities, environmental, energy, water and government markets; construction services, including building construction and energy, infrastructure and industrial construction; as well as program and facilities management and maintenance, training, logistics, consulting, technical assistance, and systems integration and information technology services, for agencies of the United States government and for other national governments.

Cintas Corporation

Cintas is a provider of corporate identity uniforms through rental and sales programs, as well as a provider of related business services, including entrance mats, restroom cleaning services and supplies, carpet and tile cleaning services, first aid and safety services and fire protection products and services. The company's segments are Uniform Rental and Facility Services, which consists of the rental and servicing of uniforms and other garments, including flame resistant clothing, mats, mops and shop towels and other ancillary items; and The First Aid and Safety Services, which consists of first aid and safety products and services.

Comfort Systems USA Inc.

Comfort Systems USA provides mechanical contracting services, which include heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), plumbing, piping and controls, as well as off-site construction, electrical, monitoring and fire protection. The company provides construction, renovation, expansion, maintenance, repair and replacement services for mechanical and related systems in commercial, industrial and institutional properties. The company's installation business related to newly constructed facilities involves the design, engineering, integration, installation and start-up of mechanical and related systems. The company also provides remote monitoring of temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for HVAC systems.

IES Holdings Inc.

IES Holdings is a holding company. The company has four business segments: Commercial & Industrial, which provides electrical and mechanical design, construction, and maintenance services to the commercial and industrial markets in various regional markets and nationwide in certain areas such as the power infrastructure market; Communications, which provides technology infrastructure services to corporations and independent businesses; Infrastructure Solutions, which provides electro-mechanical solutions for industrial operations; and Residential, which provides electrical installation services for single-family housing and multi-family apartment complexes.

KBR Inc.

KBR provides services and technologies across the asset and program life-cycle within the government services and hydrocarbons industries. The company has three segments: Government Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions to defense, space, aviation and other programs and missions for military and other government agencies; Technology Solutions, which combines technologies, equipment and catalyst supply, digital solutions and associated knowledge-based services into a global business for refining, petrochemicals, inorganic and specialty chemicals; and Energy Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions across the upstream, midstream and downstream hydrocarbons markets.

MasTec Inc.

MasTec is an infrastructure construction company operating mainly throughout North America across a range of industries. The company's segments include: Communications, which performs engineering, construction, maintenance and customer fulfillment activities related to communications infrastructure; Oil and Gas, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance services on oil and natural gas pipelines and processing facilities; Electrical Transmission, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance of electrical transmission lines and substations; and Power Generation and Industrial, which performs installation and construction of power facilities.

Quanta Services Inc.

Quanta Services is a provider of contracting services, delivering infrastructure solutions for the electric power, energy and communications industries in the United States, Canada, Australia, Latin America and select other international markets. The company has two segments: Electric Power Infrastructure Services, which provides network solutions to customers in the electric power industry and services that support the development of renewable energy generation; and Pipeline and Industrial Infrastructure Services, which provides infrastructure solutions to customers involved in the development, transportation, distribution, storage and processing of natural gas, oil and other products.

Tennant Company

Tennant is a manufacturer of floor cleaning equipment. The company provides products and solutions consisting of mechanized cleaning equipment, detergent-free and other cleaning technologies, aftermarket parts and consumables, equipment maintenance and repair service, specialty surface coatings, and business solutions such as financing, rental and leasing programs, and machine-to-machine asset management solutions. The company's products are used in several types of environments including retail establishments, distribution centers, factories and warehouses, public venues such as arenas and stadiums, office buildings, schools and universities, hospitals and clinics, parking lots and streets, and more.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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