Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Downgrading Manufacturing and Materials; Large-cap Financials at critical support

Sector Relative Strength Rankings. Heightened trade war concerns and related China growth worries have fueled the recent risk-off Sector rotations. Cap-weighted Materials and Manufacturing have fallen to the bottom of our ranks and relative strength is breaking down, as they would likely be hardest-hit if retaliatory tariffs come to fruition. Due to relative strength breakdowns, we are downgrading both Materials and Manufacturing to underweight... see below and page 2.

Market internals. So far the S&P 500 has failed to overcome the 2,790-2,800 resistance level we first highlighted in our 6/5/18 Compass. However, while a breakdown below support remains in the cards, the S&P 500 currently finds itself at an area where we would expect to see some support based on recent trends (i.e., the 200-day MA). Similarly, breadth indicators (% of stocks above their 200-day MA, 50-day MA, and A-D Line) are at levels where we would expect to see some support based on recent trends... see page 3.

Large-cap Financials at critical support. We continue to believe that a breakdown in Financials has the potential to usher in another broad market selloff, which could cause the S&P 500 to fall below 200-day moving average support and lead to more negative breadth signals for the indicators highlighted above. $26.50 on the XLF is the level we are watching - three consecutive closes below this level would warrant a downgrade of Financials... see page 4.

Discretionary vs. Staples, Small vs. Large. Both of these ratios remain in uptrends despite recent backing-and-filling. We'll be monitoring for additional outperformance from defensive Sectors which would be cause for concern. Continue to overweight small-caps... see page 4.

In today's report we highlight concerning Groups within Financials and Manufacturing: FN-30 Investment Banking & Brokerage, Large-Cap, FN-36 Life & Health Insurance, Large-Cap, and MF-03 Aero Defense, Large-Cap... see pages 9-22.
Underlyings
Aegon N.V. ADS

BOEING COMPANY (THE)

The Boeing is an aerospace firm. The company's segments include: Commercial Airplanes, which develops, produces and markets commercial jet aircraft and provides fleet support services, mainly to the commercial airline industry; Defense, Space and Security, which engages in the research, development, production and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems for strike, surveillance and mobility, vertical lift, and commercial derivative aircraft; Global Services, which provides supply chain and logistics management, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, and data analytics and digital services; and Boeing Capital, which manages overall financing exposure.

China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. ADS

Citigroup Inc.

Citigroup is a financial services holding company whose businesses provide consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, trade and securities services and wealth management. The company operates via two primary business segments: Global Consumer Banking, which provides banking services to retail customers through retail banking, Citi-branded cards and Citi retail services; and Institutional Clients Group, which includes banking and markets and securities services.

Credit Suisse Group ADS

General Dynamics Corporation

General Dynamics is an aerospace and defense company. The company has five operating segments: Aerospace, which provides a family of Gulfstream aircraft and services for business aircraft produced by Gulfstream and other original equipment manufacturers; Combat Systems, which provides combat vehicles, weapons systems and munitions; Information Technology, which provides information technology (IT) services, IT infrastructure modernization and professional services; Mission Systems, which provides mission-critical products and systems; and Marine Systems, which designs and builds nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, and auxiliary and combat-logistics ships.

Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc.

Huntington Ingalls Industries is a military shipbuilding company and a provider of services to partners in government and industry. The company's segments include: Ingalls Shipbuilding, which designs and constructs non-nuclear ships for the United States Navy and United States Coast Guard, including amphibious assault ships, expeditionary warfare ships, surface combatants, and national security cutters; Newport News Shipbuilding, which is designing and constructing nuclear-powered ships, such as aircraft carriers and submarines, and the refueling and overhaul and the inactivation of such ships; and Technical Solutions, which includes businesses that are focused on life-cycle sustainment services.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's segments include: Consumer and Community Banking, which provides services through bank branches, ATMs, digital (including mobile and online) and telephone banking; Corporate and Investment Bank, which consists of Banking and Markets and Securities Services, provides a suite of investment banking, market-making, prime brokerage, and treasury and securities products and services; Commercial Banking, which provides financial solutions, including lending, treasury services, investment banking and asset management products; and Asset and Wealth Management, which is engaged in investment and wealth management.

Lincoln National Corporation

Lincoln National operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses through its subsidiary companies. The company provides products and services through four segments as follows: Annuities, which provides tax-deferred investment growth and lifetime income opportunities for its clients by providing variable annuities, fixed annuities and indexed variable annuities; Retirement Plan Services, which provides employers with retirement plan products and services, primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace; Life Insurance, which focuses on the creation and protection of wealth for its clients; and Group Protection, which provides group non-medical insurance products.

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Lockheed Martin is a security and aerospace company. The company has four segments: Aeronautics, which is engaged in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, sustainment, support and upgrade of military aircraft; Missiles and Fire Control, which provides air and missile defense systems, logistics, fire control systems, and mission operations support; Rotary and Mission Systems, which provides design, manufacture, service and support for military and commercial helicopters, radar systems, and simulation and training services; Space, which researches, designs, develops, engineers and produces satellites, space transportation systems, and strategic, strike, and defensive systems.

Manulife Financial Corporation

Manulife Financial is a provider of financial protection and wealth management products and services, including individual life insurance, group life and health insurance, long-term care insurance, pension products, annuities and mutual funds to individual and group customers in Asia, Canada and the United States. Co. also provides investment management services with respect to Co.'s general fund assets, segregated fund assets, mutual funds, and to institutional customers. Co. also offers reinsurance services, specializing in property and aviation catastrophe risk reinsurance products.

MetLife Inc.

MetLife, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides insurance, annuities, employee benefits and asset management. The company's segments include: United States; Asia; Latin America; Europe, the Middle East and Africa; and MetLife Holdings. In the United States, the company provides a variety of insurance and financial services products, including life, dental, disability, property and casualty, guaranteed interest, stable value and annuities to both individuals and groups. Outside the United States, the company provides life, medical, dental, credit and other accident and health insurance, as well as annuities, endowment and retirement and savings products to both individuals and groups.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company advises, and originates, trades, manages and distributes capital for, governments, institutions and individuals. The company's segments are: Institutional Securities, which provides investment banking, sales and trading, lending and other services; Wealth Management, which provides brokerage and investment advisory services, financial and wealth planning services, stock plan administration services, annuity and insurance products, residential real estate loans and other lending products, banking, and retirement plan services; and Investment Management, which provides investment strategies and products.

Nomura Holdings Inc. ADS

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Northrop Grumman is a security company. The company's segments include: Aerospace Systems, which is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of manned aircraft, autonomous systems, spacecraft, high-energy laser systems, microelectronics and other systems and subsystems; Innovation Systems, which is engaged in the design, development, integration and production of flight, armament and space systems; Mission Systems, which is engaged in end-to-end mission solutions and multifunction systems; and Technology Services, which is engaged in delivering solutions and services in support of mission-critical networks and systems.

Principal Financial Group Inc.

Principal Financial Group is an insurance holding company, engaged in investment management. The company provides businesses, individuals and institutional clients a range of financial products and services, including retirement, asset management and insurance through its financial services companies. The company provides long-term investment strategies to institutional, retirement, high net worth and retail clients by providing a range of capabilities including equity, fixed income, real estate and other alternative investments, as well as fund offerings. The company's segments include: retirement and income solutions; principal global investors; principal international; and United States insurance solutions.

Prudential Financial Inc.

Prudential Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company provides a range of financial products and services, including life insurance, annuities, retirement-related products and services, mutual funds and investment management. The company provides these products and services to individual and institutional customers. The company's principal operations are comprised of PGIM (its global investment management business), its United States Businesses (consisting of its United States Workplace Solutions, United States Individual Solutions, and Assurance IQ divisions), its International Businesses, the Closed Block division and its Corporate and Other operations.

Prudential PLC

Raytheon Company

Raytheon, together with its subsidiaries, is a technology company, focused on defense and other government markets. The company has five segments: Integrated Defense Systems, which is engaged in integrated air and missile defense; large land- and sea-based radar solutions; command, control, communications, computers, cyber and intelligence solutions; Intelligence, Information and Services, which provides technical services to intelligence, defense, federal and commercial customers; Missile Systems, which produces missile and combat systems; Space and Airborne Systems, which develops integrated sensor and communication systems for missions; and Forcepoint, which develops cybersecurity products.

Sun Life Financial Inc.

Sun Life Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is an international financial services organization providing a range of protection and wealth accumulation products and services to individuals and corporate customers in Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Ireland, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Japan, Indonesia, India, China, Australia, Singapore, Vietnam and Bermuda. Co. manages its operations in four business segments: Sun Life Financial Canada, Sun Life Financial United States, MFS Investment Management and Sun Life Financial Asia.

TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation

TD Ameritrade Holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of securities brokerage services and related technology-based financial services to retail clients and independent registered investment advisors. The products and services available to the company's clients include: common and preferred stock, Exchange-Traded Funds, options, futures, foreign exchange, mutual funds, fixed income, new and secondary issue securities, margin lending, cash management services, and annuities. The company provides the client service and support through the following means: websites, branches, email, telephone, TTY services for the hearing impaired, and mobile app.

UBS Group AG

UBS Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, UBS, Co. provides financial services including advisory services, underwriting, financing, market making, asset management and brokerage and retail banking. Co.'s operations are organized along five segments: Wealth Management (financial services to high net worth and ultra high net worth individuals as well as private and corporate clients); Wealth Management Americas (advice-based solutions for ultra high net worth, high net worth and core affluent individuals and families); Personal & Corporate Banking (provides financial products and services to private, corporate and institutional clients); Asset Management and Investment Bank.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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