Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.20 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Financials To Overweight, Downgrading Technology & Consumer Discretionary

The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&P 500 is going through a consolidation phase. While we cannot say precisely how deep this pullback will be or if the lows are already in, ongoing positive market dynamics tell us the pullback is likely to be contained and therefore should be viewed as a buying opportunity. With that said, a break below 3789 would signal additional downside ahead.

· S&P 500. As noted in last week's Compass, a break of 3870 on the S&P 500 signaled a loss of upside momentum and a false breakout, meaning additional downside was likely. Thus far, the downside has been short-lived, with the S&P 500 quickly reclaiming the 3870 level while forming a bull flag pattern. The bull flag breakout level of 3915-3925 is current resistance to watch; a break above this level would likely mean a test of the all-time highs and beyond. For this to happen we need 3860 short-term support to hold; if this level fails to hold, the next important support comes in at 3789-3805 and the 50-day moving average, followed by 3694, 3635, 3588, and 3550... see chart below.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading Financials (XLF) to overweight with RS emerging from a bullish base. Additionally, we are downgrading Technology and Consumer Discretionary to market weight due to RS deterioration and the broad shift toward value... see pages 2-3.

· Treasury Yields, Value vs. Growth. In the near-term we are watching 2.4% on the 30-year Treasury yield and 1.61% on the 10-year yield. We need to see some stabilization in interest rates, ideally below these levels, in order for growth stocks and the major averages to find some support. It is possible that this stabilization started on Friday of last week. Additionally, large-cap value appears to be overtaking growth as leadership as evidenced by the Russell 1000 value vs. growth ratio..
Underlyings
AGCO Corporation

AGCO is a manufacturer and distributor of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts. The company sells a range of agricultural equipment, including tractors, combines, self-propelled sprayers, hay tools, forage equipment, seeding and tillage equipment, implements, and grain storage and protein production systems. The company's products are used in the agricultural equipment industry and are marketed under the Challenger?, Fendt?, GSI?, Massey Ferguson? and Valtra? brands. The company distributes its products through independent dealers and distributors. In addition, the company provides retail and wholesale financing through its finance joint ventures with Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A.

Baker Hughes Company Class A

Baker Hughes is an energy technology company. The company's segments are: Oilfield Services, which provides products and services for onshore and offshore operations ranging from drilling, evaluation, completion, production, and intervention; Oilfield Equipment, which provides products and services for the subsea, offshore surface and onshore operating environments; Turbomachinery and Processing Solutions, which provides equipment and related services for mechanical-drive, compression and power-generation applications; and Digital Solutions, which includes condition monitoring, industrial controls, non-destructive technologies, measurement, sensing, and pipeline solutions.

Bonanza Creek Energy Inc

Bonanza Creek Energy is an exploration and production company focused on the extraction of oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas in the Rocky Mountain region of the U.S. The company's assets and operations are concentrated in the rural portions of unincorporated Weld County within the Wattenberg Field. The Wattenberg Field is primarily developed for the Niobrara and Codell formations using horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracture stimulation techniques.

Callon Petroleum

Contango Oil & Gas Co.

Contango Oil & Gas is an independent oil and natural gas company. The company's business is focused on the production from its offshore properties in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico and onshore properties in Texas and Wyoming. The company is also engaged in the exploration, development, exploitation, production, and acquisition of crude oil and natural gas properties in West Texas, the onshore Texas Gulf Coast and the Rocky Mountain regions of the United States.

Core Laboratories NV

Core Laboratories is a holding company. Co. is a provider of reservoir description, production enhancement and reservoir management services to the oil and gas industry. Co. has three segments: reservoir description, which encompasses the characterization of petroleum reservoir rock, fluid and gas samples; production enhancement, which includes products and services relating to reservoir well completions, perforations, stimulations and production; and reservoir management, which combines and integrates information from reservoir description and production enhancement services to increase production and improve recovery of oil and gas from its clients' reservoirs.

Deere & Company

Deere & Co. operates the following segments: Agriculture and Turf, which manufactures and distributes a line of agriculture and turf equipment and related service parts, including utility tractors, tractor loaders, combines, cotton pickers, cotton strippers, and sugarcane harvesters; Construction and Forestry, which manufactures and distributes a range of machines and service parts used in construction, earthmoving, road building, material handling and timber harvesting, including backhoe loaders and crawler dozers and loaders; and Financial Services, which finances sales and leases by the company's dealers of new and used agriculture and turf equipment and construction and forestry equipment.

Dorchester Minerals L.P.

Dorchester Minerals is engaged in the acquisition, ownership and administration of Royalty Properties and Net Profits Interests (NPIs). The Royalty Properties consist of producing and nonproducing mineral, royalty, overriding royalty, net profits, and leasehold interests located in several counties and parishes in several states. The NPIs represent net profits overriding royalty interests in various properties owned by the operating partnership. The company's general partner is Dorchester Minerals Management LP, which is managed by its general partner, Dorchester Minerals Management GP LLC.

Earthstone Energy

Earthstone Energy is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition and development of oil and gas reserves through activities that include the acquisition, drilling and development of undeveloped leases, asset and corporate acquisitions and mergers. The company's operations are all in the upstream segment of the oil and natural gas industry and all the company's properties are onshore in the U.S. The company's primary assets are located in the Midland Basin of west Texas and the Eagle Ford Trend of south Texas.

Halliburton Company

Halliburton assists its customers throughout the lifecycle of the reservoir, from locating hydrocarbons and managing geological data, to drilling and formation evaluation, well construction and completion and optimizing production throughout the life of the asset. The company's segments are: Completion and Production, which delivers cementing, stimulation, intervention, pressure control, specialty chemicals, artificial lift and completion products and services; and Drilling and Evaluation, which provides field and reservoir modeling, drilling, evaluation and wellbore placement solutions that enable customers to model, measure, drill and optimize their well construction activities.

Kubota Corp. ADS

Laredo Petroleum Inc.

Lastminute.com NV

lastminute.com is an online travel agency and leisure industry company based in Switzerland. Co. operates a flight search platform that allows users to search, compare, and book airline tickets online. Co.'s platform enables users to choose and book flights, package holidays, hotels, car hire, cruises, train tickets, flash offers, restaurants, and tourist guides. Co.'s brand names include lastminute.com, Bravofly, Rumbo, Volagratis and Jetcost. Co.'s websites and mobile apps are available in 15 languages and across 35 countries, serving customers in Switzerland, Spain, Italy, France, and internationally.

Matador Resources Company

Matador Resources is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development, production and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources in the United States, with a focus on oil and natural gas shale and other unconventional plays. The company's operations are focused on the oil and liquids-rich portion of the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. The company also operates in the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas and the Haynesville shale and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana. Also, the company conducts midstream operations, through its midstream joint venture, San Mateo Midstream, LLC together with San Mateo Midstream II, LLC.

Northern Oil And Gas

NOV Inc.

PDC Energy Inc.

PDC Energy is an independent exploration and production company that acquires, explores and develops properties for the production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids with operations in the Wattenberg Field in Colorado and the Delaware Basin in Texas. The company's operations in the Wattenberg Field are focused in the horizontal Niobrara and Codell plays and its Delaware Basin operations are primarily focused in the Wolfcamp zones. The company is engaged in two operating segments: its oil and gas exploration and production segment and its gas marketing segment.

Range Resources Corporation

Range Resources is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an independent natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil company, engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of natural gas and oil properties, located in the Appalachian and North Louisiana regions of the United States, primarily in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and the Lower Cotton Valley formation in Louisiana.

Rare Element Resources

Schlumberger NV

Schlumberger provides technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. The company has four segments: Reservoir Characterization, which consists of the principal technologies involved in finding and defining hydrocarbon resources; Drilling, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the drilling and positioning of oil and gas wells; Production, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the lifetime production of oil and gas reservoirs; and Cameron, which consists of the principal technologies involved in pressure and flow control for drilling and intervention rigs, oil and gas wells and production facilities.

SM Energy Company

SM Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. The company's operations are concentrated in the Midland Basin and South Texas.

Southwestern Energy Company

Southwestern Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an independent energy company engaged in exploration, development and production activities, including the related marketing of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) produced in its operations. The company's primary business is the exploration for, and production of, natural gas, oil and NGLs. The company's operations in northeast Pennsylvania are primarily focused on the unconventional natural gas reservoir known as the Marcellus Shale, and its operations in West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania are focused on the Marcellus Shale, the Utica and the Upper Devonian unconventional natural gas, oil and NGL reservoirs.

Talos Energy Inc.

Talos Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an exploration and production company with operations in the United States Gulf of Mexico and offshore Mexico. The company's focus in the United States Gulf of Mexico is the acquisition of deep water assets with existing infrastructure and the exploration, exploitation and development of such assets in key geological trends.

Titan Machinery

Titan Machinery owns and operates a network of agricultural and construction equipment stores. The company has three segments: Agriculture, Construction and International, within which the company engages in: new and used equipment sales; parts sales; equipment repair and maintenance services; and equipment rental and other activities. The agricultural equipment the company sells and services includes machinery and attachments for uses ranging from farming to home and garden use. The construction equipment the company sells and services includes heavy construction machinery, light industrial machinery, road and highway construction machinery, mining, energy, and forestry operations equipment.

Valmont Industries Inc.

Valmont Industries is a global producer of fabricated metal products. The company's segments are: Engineered Support Structures, which engineers and manufactures steel, aluminum, and composite poles and structures to which lighting and traffic control fixtures are attached for a range of outdoor lighting applications; Utility Support Structures, which engineers and manufactures tapered steel, pre-stressed concrete and hybrid structures, and steel lattice structures; Coatings, which provides the following services, including hot-dipped galvanizing, anodizing, powder coating, and e-coating; and Irrigation, which manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment and related service parts.

W&T Offshore Inc.

W&T Offshore is an independent oil and natural gas producer with substantially all of its operations in the Gulf of Mexico. The company is active in the exploration, development and acquisition of oil and natural gas properties. The company's interest in fields, leases, structures and equipment are primarily owned by the parent company, W&T Offshore, Inc. and its subsidiary, W & T Energy VI, LLC and through its proportionately consolidated interest in Monza Energy, LLC.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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