Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.92 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

ear Market Until Proven Otherwise

In our Sept. 27 Compass, and with the S&P 500 down 11.5% during the prior two weeks, we discussed our belief that the market indexes could see a bounce or pause in selling. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) have gone virtually nowhere since (i.e., a pause), and we still cannot rule out a bear market rally as long as the 200-week MA (3590-3600) holds on the S&P 500, and as long as $162-163 holds on the Russell 2000 (IWM). To confirm a bear market rally, we need to see reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or breaks above 3810 on the S&P 500 and above $176 on the IWM. Longer-term, this is still a bear market until the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 can break above their respective 200-day MAs.

S&P 500 Percent of Stocks Above Their 200-Day MAs. Recent major bear market bottoms (2002, 2009, 2020) were made when the % of stocks above their 200-day MAs goes below the 10% level, and then when it reverses back above the 10% level (often can take weeks/months), only at that point is when the major bottom is made. So far, this indicator has hit the 10% level twice, but has not broken below it. Based on this indicator, it suggests the S&P 500 may have lower to go before ultimately bottoming... see page 3.
Upgrading Manufacturing to Overweight. We are upgrading Manufacturing to overweight; RS on cap- and equal-weighted Manufacturing (XLI, RGI) is breaking above 7-month resistance -- add selective exposure. Price remains a concern, though the XLI continues to hold above major support at $83-84... see page 4.
Commodities, U.S. Dollar (DXY), 10-Yr Treasury Yield. We continue to monitor this trio for signs of tops; we believe at least two of these three need to start new downtrends in order for the broad equity market to establish a reliable bottom. The DXY and Treasury yields are still generally trending higher, while the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) is at least moving sideways... see page 5.
Long-Term Supports. Over the past two weeks week we have discussed how Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), Technology (XLK), equal-weighted Consumer Discretionary (RCD), ARK Innovation (ARKK), and Bitcoin are all testing multi-year support, some going all the way back to 2007. All continue to hold above support, with the one exception being Technology (XLK), which appears to be breaking below $122-123. The XLK breaking below $122 raises concerns that the others could follow.
Underlyings
AGCO Corporation

AGCO is a manufacturer and distributor of agricultural equipment and related replacement parts. The company sells a range of agricultural equipment, including tractors, combines, self-propelled sprayers, hay tools, forage equipment, seeding and tillage equipment, implements, and grain storage and protein production systems. The company's products are used in the agricultural equipment industry and are marketed under the Challenger?, Fendt?, GSI?, Massey Ferguson? and Valtra? brands. The company distributes its products through independent dealers and distributors. In addition, the company provides retail and wholesale financing through its finance joint ventures with Cooperatieve Centrale Raiffeisen-Boerenleenbank B.A.

Albany International Corp. Class A

Albany International is engaged in two business segments: Machine Clothing and Albany Engineered Composites (AEC). The Machine Clothing segment supplies permeable and impermeable belts used in the manufacture of paper, paperboard, tissue and towel, pulp, nonwovens, fiber cement and other industrial applications. This segment also supplies consumable fabrics used in the manufacturing process in the pulp, corrugator, nonwovens, fiber cement, building products, and tannery and textile industries. The AEC segment provides engineered, composite structures to customers in the aerospace and defense industries. Other AEC programs include the F-35, Boeing 787, Sikorsky CH-53K, and JASSM programs.

Applied Industrial Technologies Inc.

Applied Industrial Technologies is a distributor of bearings, power transmission products, fluid power components and systems, specialty flow control solutions, and other industrial supplies, operating in North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. In addition, the company provides engineering, design, and systems integration for industrial, fluid power, and flow control applications, as well as customized mechanical, fabricated rubber, fluid power, and flow control shop services. The company has two reportable segments: service center based distribution; and fluid power and flow control.

EnPro Industries Inc.

EnPro Industries designs, develops, manufactures, and markets engineered industrial products that primarily include: sealing products; heavy-duty truck wheel-end component systems; self-lubricating, non-rolling bearing products; precision engineered components and lubrication systems; and heavy-duty, medium-speed diesel, natural gas and dual fuel reciprocating engines, including parts and services. The company has three segments: Sealing Products, which includes its Garlock, Technetics and Stemco divisions; Engineered Products, which includes two industrial products businesses, GGB and Compressor Products International; and Power Systems, which is composed of its Fairbanks Morse business.

Gibraltar Industries Inc.

Gibraltar Industries is a manufacturer and distributor of building products for residential, industrial, infrastructure, renewable energy and conservation markets. The company has three segments: Residential Products, which services the residential repair and remodeling and the housing construction markets; Industrial and Infrastructure Products, which serves a variety of end markets such as industrial and commercial construction, highway and bridge construction, automotive, airports and energy and power generation; and Renewable Energy and Conservation, which is primarily a designer and manufacturer of solar mounting systems and greenhouse structures.

Lindsay Corporation

Lindsay is engaged in providing a variety of proprietary water management and road infrastructure products and services. The company has operations which are categorized into two key reporting segments, Irrigation and Infrastructure. The company's irrigation segment includes the manufacture and marketing of center pivot, lateral move, hose reel irrigation systems, and repair and replacement parts for its irrigation systems and controls. The company's infrastructure segment includes the manufacture and marketing of moveable barriers, specialty barriers, crash cushions and end terminals, road marking and road safety equipment, large diameter steel tubing, and railroad signals and structures.

Nordson Corporation

Nordson engineers, manufactures and markets differentiated products and systems used for dispensing, applying and controlling of adhesives, coatings, polymers, sealants, biomaterials, and other fluids, to test and inspect for quality, and to treat and cure surfaces. The company serves a range of consumer non-durable, consumer durable and technology end markets including packaging, nonwovens, electronics, medical, appliances, energy, transportation, building and construction, and general product assembly and finishing. The company has three operating segments: Adhesive Dispensing Systems, Advanced Technology Systems, and Industrial Coating Systems.

Titan Machinery

Titan Machinery owns and operates a network of agricultural and construction equipment stores. The company has three segments: Agriculture, Construction and International, within which the company engages in: new and used equipment sales; parts sales; equipment repair and maintenance services; and equipment rental and other activities. The agricultural equipment the company sells and services includes machinery and attachments for uses ranging from farming to home and garden use. The construction equipment the company sells and services includes heavy construction machinery, light industrial machinery, road and highway construction machinery, mining, energy, and forestry operations equipment.

Valmont Industries Inc.

Valmont Industries is a global producer of fabricated metal products. The company's segments are: Engineered Support Structures, which engineers and manufactures steel, aluminum, and composite poles and structures to which lighting and traffic control fixtures are attached for a range of outdoor lighting applications; Utility Support Structures, which engineers and manufactures tapered steel, pre-stressed concrete and hybrid structures, and steel lattice structures; Coatings, which provides the following services, including hot-dipped galvanizing, anodizing, powder coating, and e-coating; and Irrigation, which manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment and related service parts.

W.W. Grainger Inc.

W.W. Grainger is a distributor of maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) products and services in North America, Japan and Europe. The company's MRO product offering is grouped under material-handling equipment, safety and security supplies, lighting and electrical products, power and hand tools, pumps and plumbing supplies, cleaning and maintenance supplies and metalworking tools categories. The company's segments are the United States, which provides MRO products and services through its eCommerce platform, catalogs, branches and sales and service representatives; and Canada, which serves Canadian customers through its distribution center and branch network as well as sales and service representatives.

Watsco Inc.

Watsco is a distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies in North America. The products the company distributes consist of: equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, gas, electric, and oil furnaces, commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems, and other equipment; parts, including replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; supplies, including thermostats, insulation material, refrigerants, ductwork, grills, registers, sheet metal, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tape, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies; and plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies.

WESCO International Inc.

WESCO International is a distributor of products and provider of supply chain management and logistics services used primarily in industrial, construction, utility and commercial, institutional and government markets. The company is a provider of electrical, industrial, and communications maintenance, repair and operating and original equipment manufacturers products, construction materials, and supply chain management and logistics services. The company's primary product categories include general supplies, wire, cable and conduit, communications and security, electrical distribution and controls, lighting and sustainability, and automation, controls and motors.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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