Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.88 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Breaking To New Highs

We like to say that new highs are not a sell signal, and this time is no different. With the S&P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of the uptrends that began in March... see charts below. Therefore, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Several growth-oriented large-cap Sectors hit new all-time closing highs within the past week, including Technology (XLK), Communications (XLC), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Health Care (RYH). Such breakouts are exactly what we expect in a bull market and suggest significant upside moving forward... see pages 2-4.

· Growth Over Value. Last week we saw value gain some ground relative to growth. We view this as a countertrend move and it already appears to be reversing back in favor of growth. Growth remains long-term leadership -- stay overweight... see page 5.

· Treasury Yields, Copper vs. Gold. In order for value to have a period of sustained outperformance we would likely need to see Treasury yields lift higher -- something that we simply are not seeing. The uptrend in the copper vs. gold ratio would suggest interest rates are likely to find a bottom, however a simultaneous breakdown in yields and the copper/gold ratio cannot be ruled out... see page 6.

· US Dollar. The US dollar (DXY) is flirting with a breakdown below the 96 support level. As we stated after the initial break below 98.50, we believe non-US equities (especially EM equities) are likely to outperform relative to the US as long as the DXY is below 98.50. A decisive weekly close below 96 would be bullish for global risk sentiment and would add a further tailwind to both foreign/EM equities and commodity prices.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Materials: HC-06 Biotech, Large-Cap, HC-07 Biotech, Mid-Cap, MA-27 Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, and MA-30 Silver, Platinum... see pages 14-31.
Underlyings
Agilent Technologies Inc.

Agilent Technologies is engaged in life sciences, diagnostics and applied chemical markets. The company's segments are: Life Sciences and Applied Markets Business, which provides instruments and software that enable customers to identify, quantify and analyze the physical and biological properties of substances and products; Diagnostics and Genomics Business, which includes the genomics, nucleic acid contract manufacturing and research and development, pathology, companion diagnostics, reagent partnership and biomolecular analysis businesses; and Agilent CrossLab Business, which spans the entire lab with its consumables and services portfolio to improve customer outcomes.

Alamos Gold Inc.

Alamos Gold is engaged in the exploration, mine development, and the mining and extraction of precious metals, primarily gold. Co.'s s primary asset is the Mulatos Mine and holds the mineral rights to the Salamandra group of concessions in the State of Sonora, Mexico, which includes several known satellite gold occurrences.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company developing therapeutics based on RNA interference (RNAi). RNAi is a biological pathway within cells for sequence-specific silencing and regulation of gene expression. The company has two RNAi-based medicines, ONPATTRO? (patisiran) and GIVLAARI? (givosiran). ONPATTRO is approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of the polyneuropathy of hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis in adults and has also been approved in the European Union, Japan, Canada and Switzerland. GIVLAARI is approved by FDA for the treatment of adults with acute hepatic porphyria.

AMGEN INC.

Amgen is a biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers human therapeutics. The company's products include: Enbrel? (etanercept), which is used in indications for the treatment of adult patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis, patients with chronic moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who are candidates for systemic therapy or phototherapy and patients with active psoriatic arthritis; and Prolia? (denosumab), which is used for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at high risk of fracture or multiple risk factors for fracture, or patients who have failed or are intolerant to other available osteoporosis therapy.

B2Gold Corp.

B2Gold is a Vancouver-based gold producer with three operating mines (two in Nicaragua and one in the Philippines), a fourth mine which has entered into the commissioning and testing phase in Namibia and a portfolio of development and exploration assets in Mali, Colombia, Burkina Faso and Nicaragua. Co.'s reportable operating segments include its mining operations and development projects. The Other Mineral Properties segment consists of Co.'s interests in mineral properties which are at various stages of exploration. The Corporate and Other segment includes corporate operations and the Bellavista property in Costa Rica which is classified as held for sale.

BeiGene Ltd. Sponsored ADR

Bio-Techne Corporation

Bio-Techne and its subsidiaries develop, manufacture and sell biotechnology life science reagents, instruments and services for the research and clinical diagnostic markets.Co.'s segments: Protein Sciences, which developes and manufactures purified proteins and reagent solutions, cytokines and growth factors, antibodies, immunoassays, biologically active small molecule compounds, tissue culture reagents and T-Cell activation technologies; and Diagnostics and Genomics, which develops and manufactures diagnostic products, including Food and Drug Administration-regulated controls, calibrators, blood gas and clinical chemistry controls and other reagents for Original Equipment Manufacturer.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes therapies for people with serious and life-threatening rare diseases and medical conditions. The company's commercial products are Aldurazyme (laronidase) for Mucopolysaccharidosis I; Brineura (cerliponase alfa) for the treatment of late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis type 2; Kuvan (sapropterin dihydrochloride) for the treatment of phenylketonuria; Naglazyme (galsulfase) the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VI ; Palynziq (pegvaliase-pqpz) for adult patients with phenylketonuria; and Vimizim (elosulfase alpha) for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis IV Type A.

Coeur Mining Inc.

Coeur Mining is a gold and silver producer, as well as a zinc and lead producer, with mines located in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and exploration projects in North America. The company operates the Palmarejo complex, and the Rochester, Kensington, Wharf and Silvertip mines. The company's dore, as well as the concentrate product produced by the Wharf mine, is refined into gold and silver bullion and then sells to multi-national banks, bullion trading houses, and refiners across the globe. The company's gold concentrate products from the Kensington mine and the zinc and lead concentrates from the Silvertip mine are sold under a variety of agreements with smelters and traders.

Eldorado Gold Corp.

Eldorado Gold is engaged in the exploration, development, mining and production of gold and other mining resources in Brazil, China, Turkey and Greece.

Exact Sciences Corporation

Exact Sciences is a molecular diagnostics company, focused on the early detection and prevention of cancer. The company has developed a non-invasive screening test called Cologuard? for the early detection of colorectal cancer and pre-cancer. The company's Cologuard test is a non-invasive stool-based DNAscreening test that utilizes a multi-target approach to detect DNA and hemoglobin biomarkers associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer. The company is also working on the development of additional tests for other types of cancer. The company is also focusing its research and development efforts on building a pipeline of potential future products and services with a focus on blood-based tests.

Exelixis Inc.

Exelixis is an oncology-focused biotechnology company that involved in the discovery, development and commercialization of new medicines for cancers. The company's marketd products are: CABOMETYX? (cabozantinib) tablets for renal cell carcinoma and previously treated hepatocellular carcinoma; and COMETRIQ? (cabozantinib) capsules for progressive, metastatic medullary thyroid cancer. The company's products resulting from its discovery efforts are: COTELLIC? (cobimetinib), an inhibitor of MEK approved as part of a combination regimen to treat melanoma; and MINNEBRO? (esaxerenone), an oral, non-steroidal, selective blocker of the mineralocorticoid receptor approved for the treatment of hypertension in Japan.

First Majestic Silver Corp.

First Majestic Silver is engaged in the business of silver production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver production in Mexico.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

Fortuna Silver Mines is engaged in the mining, exploration, extraction and processing of silver, gold and zinc mine properties in southern Peru and Mexico.

Global Payment Solutions Ltd.

Hecla Mining Company

Hecla Mining and its subsidiaries discover, acquire and develop mines and other mineral interests and produce and market concentrates, carbon material and dore containing silver, gold, lead and zinc. The company has five units: the Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, Casa Berardi, San Sebastian and Nevada Operations units. The company produces zinc, lead and bulk flotation concentrates at its Greens Creek unit and lead and zinc flotation concentrates at its Lucky Friday unit, each of which the company sells to custom smelters and metal traders on contract. The company also produces unrefined gold and silver bullion bars (dore), loaded carbon and precipitates at its Casa Berardi, San Sebastian and Nevada Operations units.

IAMGOLD Corporation

IAMGold is engaged in the exploration for, development and operation of gold mining properties, and the operation of a niobium mine.

INCYTE CORP

Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics. JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) has been approved for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older. The company has also obtained a license to develop and commercialize ICLUSIG (ponatinib) in Europe and other select countries. In the European Union, ICLUSIG is approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic phase, accelerated phase or blast phase chronic myeloid leukemia.

Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.

Kirkland Lake Gold is a Canadian gold mining and exploration company with three producing mines in Australia: the Fosterville Gold Mine and the Stawell Gold Mine in the State of Victoria and the Cosmo Gold Mine in the Northern Territory. Co. also has a portfolio of development opportunities on its significant land package, including the Big Hill Project at Stawell and various projects in the Northern Territories. In addition, Co. owns title to a mining lease located in north-central Newfoundland, Canada.

MAG Silver Corp.

MAG Silver is an exploration company conducting work on mineral properties it has staked or acquired by way of option agreement, principally in Mexico. Co. has not yet determined whether the properties on which it is conducting exploration contain any ore reserves that are economically recoverable. The recoverability of these amounts is dependent upon the existence of economically recoverable reserves, Co.'s ability to obtain the necessary financing to complete the development of the interests, and future profitable production, or alternatively, upon Co.’s ability to dispose of its interests on a profitable basis.

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.

Neurocrine Biosciences is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing treatments for patients with neurological, endocrine and psychiatric disorders. The company is primarily focused on the commercialization of INGREZZA? (valbenazine) in the United States. The company's late-stage pipeline includes opicapone as an adjunctive therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors in adult Parkinson's disease patients, elagolix for the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids in women, valbenazine for the treatment of chorea in adult patients with Huntington's disease and NBIb-1817 (VY-AADC) for the treatment of Parkinson's disease patients.

New Gold Inc.

New Gold is a gold producer engaged in gold mining and related activities including acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing and reclamation.

Pan American Silver Corp.

Pan American Silver is engaged in the production and sale of silver, gold and other base metals including copper, lead and zinc as well as other related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing, refining and reclamation. Co.'s primary product (silver) is produced in Peru, Mexico, Argentina and Bolivia. Additionally, Co. has project development activities in Peru, Mexico and Argentina, and exploration activities throughout South America and Mexico.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company that discovers, invents, develops, manufactures, and commercializes medicines for the treatment of diseases. The company's commercialized medicines and product candidates in development are designed to assist patients with eye disease, allergic and inflammatory diseases, cancer, cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, neuromuscular diseases, infectious diseases, and rare diseases. The company's products include: EYLEA (aflibercept) injection, which is used for the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema; and Dupixent (dupilumab) injection, which is used for the treatment of adult patients with atopic dermatitis.

Sarepta Therapeutics Inc.

Sarepta Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery and development of RNA-targeted therapeutics, gene therapy and other genetic therapeutic modalities for the treatment of diseases. The company is developing therapeutic candidates for a range of diseases and disorders, including Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), Limb-girdle muscular dystrophies, Mucopolysaccharidosis type IIIA and other neuromuscular and central nervous system. The company's commercial product, EXONDYS 51? (eteplirsen) Injection is indicated for the treatment of DMD in patients who have a confirmed mutation of the DMD gene that is amenable to exon 51 skipping.

Seabridge Gold

Seabridge Gold is a development stage company engaged in the acquisition and exploration of gold properties located in North America.

Seagen Inc.

Seattle Genetics is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes therapies targeting cancer. The company is commercializing ADCETRIS?, or brentuximab vedotin, for the treatment of several types of lymphoma. The company is also developing a pipeline of therapies for solid tumors and blood-related cancers designed to address unmet medical needs and improve treatment outcomes for patients. Many of the company's programs, including ADCETRIS, are based on its antibody-drug conjugate (ADC), technology. The company's late-stage pipeline includes two ADCs and an oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor, for solid tumors that are in clinical trials designed to support applications for potential regulatory approvals.

SSR Mining Inc

SSR Mining is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and operation of silver-dominant resource properties located in the Americas. Co.'s strategic focus is to optimize the production of silver from its Pirquitas mine in Argentina, and to advance other principal development and exploration projects including San Luis in Peru, Diablillos in Argentina, and Pitarrilla and San Agustin in Mexico. In addition to its principal projects, Co. holds a geologically-diverse portfolio of other predominantly silver projects in various stages of exploration.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and developing research and development programs in other indications. The company's marketed products are TRIKAFTA (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor), SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI (tezacaftor in combination with ivacaftor), ORKAMBI (lumacaftor in combination with ivacaftor) and KALYDECO (ivacaftor), which are approved to treat patients with CF who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene. The company is evaluating CTX001, a genetic therapy as a potential treatment for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp

Wheaton Precious Metals is engaged in the silver mining business.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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