Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 233.43 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Gold at a critical juncture

We remain neutral on U.S. equities as the S&P 500 continues its sideways consolidation pattern between support at 2,720-2,730 and resistance at the all-time highs of 2,954. On the bright side, most technical indicators that were deteriorating throughout the month of May are now stabilizing - however they are not actually improving. Below we go into further detail, and also highlight the potential return of the gold trade.

• Gold at a critical juncture. Gold prices have been generally consolidating for six years, and have been consistently unable to break above the $1,360-1,370/oz. resistance level. It is impossible to know for certain if there will be a breakout, but we do know that a decisive break above resistance will be a major buy signal... see chart below.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Aside from Services, the top of our rankings are littered with defensive Sectors (Staples and Utilities). Still, despite the tailwind of low yields, bond proxies and defensive areas of the market are not decisively hitting new RS highs... see pages 2-3.

• Indicators not getting worse, but not getting better either. We highlight a number of important indicators that have stabilized, but that we would ultimately need to see reverse course in order for us to have a more constructive outlook. Such indicators include high yield spreads, Consumer Cyclicals vs. Staples ratios, and WTI crude oil and copper prices... see pages 3-4.

• 10Y/2Y Treasury spread, absolute 10-year Treasury yield, and banks. Bank stocks continue to struggle from both a price and RS perspective amid the double whammy of low rates and narrow spreads. We continue to believe the 10Y/2Y spread may be bottoming, which could offer some respite for the banks... see page 5.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Cons. Discretionary and Materials: CD-04 Auto Dealers, CD-06 Homebuilding, Large-Cap, CD-27 Restaurants, Large-Cap Fast-Food, and MA-26 Gold, Western Hemisphere, Large-Cap... see pages 12-26.
Underlyings
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

Agnico-Eagle Mines is a gold mining company with mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland. Co. earns a proportion of its revenues from the production and sale of gold in both dore bar and concentrate form. The remainder of revenue and cash flow is generated by the production and sale of byproduct metals. The revenue from byproduct metals is mainly generated by production at the LaRonde mine in Canada (silver, zinc, copper and lead) and the Pinos Altos mine in Mexico (silver).

ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC

Asbury Automotive Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an automotive retailer. The company's stores provide automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; parts and service, including vehicle repair and maintenance services, replacement parts and collision repair services; and finance and insurance products, including arranging vehicle financing through third parties and aftermarket products, such as extended service contracts, guaranteed asset protection debt cancellation, prepaid maintenance, and credit life and disability insurance. The company's new vehicle franchise retail network is made up of dealerships operating under locally-branded dealership groups.

AutoNation Inc.

AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The company provides a range of automotive products and services, including new vehicles, used vehicles, parts and service, which includes automotive repair and maintenance services as well as wholesale parts and collision businesses, and automotive finance and insurance products, which include vehicle service and other protection products, and the arranging of financing for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. The company owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in the United States, in main metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company has three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.

Barrick Gold Corporation

Barrick Gold is engaged in the production and sale of gold, as well as related activities such as exploration and mine development. Co. also produces copper and hold interests in oil and gas properties located in Canada. Co.'s mining operations are concentrated in three regional business units: North America, South America and Australia Pacific. Co. also hold a 73.9% equity interest in African Barrick Gold plc that owns gold mines and exploration properties in Africa. Co.'s copper business unit contains producing copper mines located in Chile and Zambia; and a mine under construction located in Saudi Arabia.

CarMax Inc.

CarMax is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as a retailer of used vehicles. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations, which sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers; and CarMax Auto Finance, which consists of finance operation that provides vehicle financing to customer buying retail vehicles from the company The company's products and services include retail merchandising, wholesale auctions, extended protection plans, reconditioning and service, and customer credit.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), tacos, and salads. The company operates Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, international Chipotle restaurants, and non-Chipotle restaurants. The company uses various herbs, spices and seasonings to prepare its meats and vegetables. The company also serves tortilla chips that seasoned with lime juice and salt, with sides of hand mashed guacamole, salsas, or queso. In addition to sodas, fruit and tea drinks, and organic milk, most of the company's restaurants also provide a selection of beer and margaritas.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

Domino's Pizza Inc.

Domino's Pizza is a pizza company. The company is primarily engaged in the following business activities: retail sales of food through the company-owned Domino's Pizza stores; sales of food, equipment and supplies to the company-owned and franchised Domino's Pizza stores through the company-owned supply chain centers; receipt of royalties, advertising contributions and fees from United States Domino's Pizza franchisees; and receipt of royalties and fees from international Domino's Pizza franchisees. The company's menu features pizza products with varying sizes and crust types. The company's store also provides oven-baked sandwiches, pasta, boneless chicken and wings, bread side items, desserts and soft drink products.

Dunkin' Brands Group Inc.

Dunkin' Brands Group is a franchisor of quick service restaurants serving hot and cold coffee and baked goods, as well as ice cream. Through its Dunkin' Donuts brand, the company franchises restaurants featuring coffee, donuts, bagels, breakfast sandwiches, and related products. The company licenses Dunkin' Donuts brand products sold in certain retail outlets such as retail packaged coffee, Dunkin' K-Cup? pods, and ready-to-drink bottled iced coffee. Through its Baskin-Robbins brand, the company franchises restaurants featuring ice cream, frozen beverages, and related products. The company distributes Baskin-Robbins ice cream products to certain markets for sale in Baskin-Robbins restaurants and certain retail outlets.

Franco-Nevada Corporation

Franco-Nevada is a gold-focused royalty and stream company with additional interests in silver, platinum group metals, oil and gas and other resource assets located in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Africa. Co.'s portfolio includes 340 mineral and oil and gas assets covering properties at various stages from production to early stage exploration.

Group 1 Automotive Inc.

Group 1 Automotive is an operator in the automotive retail industry. Through its dealerships, the company sells new and used cars and light trucks, arranges related vehicle financing, sells service and insurance contracts, provides automotive maintenance and repair services, and sells vehicle parts. The company sells retail used vehicles directly to its customers at its dealerships or via its internet sites and wholesale used vehicles at auctions. The company sells replacement parts and provides both warranty and non-warranty maintenance and repair services, as well as provides collision repair services at the collision centers that the company operates. The company also sells parts to wholesale customers.

Kinross Gold Corporation

Kinross Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of gold and, as a by-product, silver ore and the exploration for, and the acquisition of, gold bearing properties in the Americas, the Russian Federation, West Africa and worldwide. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s proven mineral reserves for gold and silver were 1,122 ounces and 1,179 ounces respectively.7,883 7,883 7,883

Lennar Corporation Class A

Lennar is a homebuilder in the United States, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. The company's homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes as well as the purchase, development and sale of residential land directly and through unconsolidated entities in which it has investments. The company operates under the Lennar brand name. The company creates and participates in joint ventures that acquire and develop land for its homebuilding operations, for sale to third parties or for use in the ventures' own homebuilding operations.

Lithia Motors Inc. Class A

Lithia Motors is a providers of personal transportation solutions. The company's segments are Domestic, Import and Luxury. The company's Domestic segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured by Chrysler, General Motors and Ford. The company's Import segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by Honda, Toyota, Subaru, Nissan and Volkswagen. The company's Luxury segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus. The franchises in each segment also sell used vehicles, parts and automotive services, and automotive finance and insurance products.

McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants. The company's menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, wraps, fries, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages. The company's restaurants in the United States and various international markets provide a full or limited breakfast menu. Breakfast offerings may include Egg McMuffin, Sausage McMuffin with Egg, McGriddles, biscuit and bagel sandwiches and hotcakes. The restaurants also sells a variety of other products during limited-time promotions

Newmont Corporation

Newmont is primarily a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. The company is also engaged in the production of copper, silver, lead and zinc. The company's operations are organized in five geographic regions; North America, South America, Australia, Africa and Nevada.

NVR Inc.

NVR is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are constructed on a pre-sold basis. The company conducts its homebuilding activities directly. The company's homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three trade names: Ryan Homes, which is marketed primarily to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes, which are marketed primarily to move-up and luxury buyers. The company's mortgage banking operations also include separate subsidiaries that broker title insurance and perform title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings.

PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC

Penske Automotive Group is a transportation services company that operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships and distributes commercial vehicles, diesel engines, gas engines, power systems and related parts and services. The company has four segments: Retail Automotive, consisting of its retail automotive dealership operations; Retail Commercial Truck, consisting of its retail commercial truck dealership operations in the United States and Canada; Other, consisting of its commercial vehicle and power systems distribution operations and other non-automotive consolidated operations; and Non-Automotive Investments, consisting of its equity method investments in non-automotive operations.

PulteGroup Inc.

PulteGroup through its subsidiaries is engaged in the homebuilding business. The company also has mortgage banking operations, conducted principally through its susidiary, Pulte Mortgage LLC, and title and insurance brokerage operations. The company's homebuilding business includes the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes within the United States. The company provides a variety of home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes at different prices and with varying levels of options and amenities to its customer groups: first-time, move-up, and active adult.

Restaurant Brands International Inc

Restaurant Brands International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a quick service restaurant (QSR) company with over 20,000 restaurants in approximately 100 countries and U.S. territories as of Dec 31 2016. Co.'s Tim Hortons® and Burger King® brands have similar franchise business models with complementary daypart mixes. Tim Hortons restaurants are QSRs with a menu that includes coffee, tea, espresso-based hot and cold drinks, baked goods, including donuts, Timbits®, bagels, sandwiches, soups and more. Burger King restaurants are QSRs that feature flame-grilled hamburgers, chicken and other sandwiches, french fries, soft drinks and other food items.

ROYAL GOLD INC

Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties and similar interests. The company acquires existing stream and royalty interests or finances projects that are in production or in the development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests. A metal stream is a purchase agreement that provides, in exchange for an upfront deposit payment, the right to purchase all or a portion of one or more metals produced from a mine, at a price determined for the life of the transaction by the purchase agreement. Royalties are non-operating interests in mining projects that provide the right to a portion of revenue or metals produced from the project after deducting specified costs, if any.

Sonic Automotive Inc. Class A

Sonic Automotive is an automotive retailer in the United States. The company has two reportable segments: the Franchised Dealerships Segment and the EchoPark Segment. The Franchised Dealerships segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles and buy and sell used vehicles, sell replacement parts, perform vehicle maintenance, warranty and repair services, and arrange finance and insurance products. The EchoPark segment is comprised of pre-owned vehicle retail locations that provide customers an opportunity to search the company's nationwide inventory, purchase a pre-owned vehicle, select finance and insurance products and sell their vehicle to the company

Toll Brothers Inc.

Toll Brothers designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges financing for residential single-family detached, attached home, master planned resort-style golf, and urban communities. The company also designs, builds, markets, and sells urban condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living?. The company operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, golf course development, and landscaping subsidiaries. The company also operates its own security company, TBI Smart Home Solutions, which provides homeowners with home automation and technology options. In addition, the company operates its own lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations.

Wendy's Company

The Wendy's is a holding company. The company's subsidiary, Wendy's Restaurants, LLC, is the parent company of Wendy's International, LLC (Wendy's), which is the owner and franchisor of the Wendy's? restaurant system in the U.S. Wendy's is a quick-service restaurant company in the hamburger sandwich segment. Each Wendy's restaurant provides a menu featuring hamburger sandwiches and filet of chicken breast sandwiches. Wendy's menu also includes chicken nuggets, chili, french fries, baked potatoes, salads, soft drinks, Frosty? desserts and kids' meals. In addition, the restaurants sell a variety of promotional products.Wendy's also provides breakfast in some restaurants in the U.S.

Yum! Brands Inc.

Yum! Brands franchises or operates a system of quick service restaurants through its KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands. The company's operating segments consist of the KFC Division, the Pizza Hut Division and the Taco Bell Division. KFC restaurants provides fried and non-fried chicken products such as sandwiches, chicken strips, chicken-on-the-bone and other chicken products marketed under a variety of names. Pizza Hut is engaged in the sale of ready-to-eat pizza products. Pizza Hut operates in the delivery, carryout and casual dining segments. Taco Bell is engaged in Mexican-style food products, including various types of tacos, burritos, quesadillas, salads, nachos and other related items.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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