Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 240.13 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

U.S. dollar breaking down; Gold breaking out

The S&P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. Below we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends.

• U.S. dollar (DXY) breaking down, Treasury yields remain suppressed. Dovish Fed comments opened the door for rate cuts, sending the DXY and Treasury yields lower. As expected and desired, the DXY ultimately broke down below the 200-day MA and 96.50 support levels and we expect additional weakness ahead. We have noted for some time and continue to believe that a weakening dollar may save global equity markets.

• Gold breaking out. Dovish global central banks and a weaker U.S. dollar has gold breaking out above the $1,360-1,370/oz. resistance level. We remain bullish on gold and gold miners. The last time gold broke out from a similar multi-year base was in 2002, and a 9-year bull market ensued in the yellow metal... see chart below.

• Cyclicals unable to hit new price highs. The only GICS Sectors hitting new price highs are defensives - Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate. On the other hand, several key cyclical areas of the market - Tech (XLK), Discretionary (XLY), Transports (IYT), Materials (RTM), banks (KBE), retail (XRT), small-caps (IWM), etc. - are either making lower highs or have been unable to break out to new highs. This helps lead us to believe the market may not be ready to break out... see pages 3-4.

• On the bright side. As noted above, a breakout to new highs is certainly possible as the dollar weakens and several indicators remain constructive: high yield spreads are narrowing substantially, copper is holding above support, and the 10Y/2Y Treasury spread is at YTD highs... see page 5.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Health Care, and Utilities: MA-26 & -27 (Large- and Small-Cap) Gold, Western Hemisphere, HC-11 Cardiovascular Products, and UT-12 Gas, Midwest... see pages 12-29.
Underlyings
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

Agnico-Eagle Mines is a gold mining company with mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland. Co. earns a proportion of its revenues from the production and sale of gold in both dore bar and concentrate form. The remainder of revenue and cash flow is generated by the production and sale of byproduct metals. The revenue from byproduct metals is mainly generated by production at the LaRonde mine in Canada (silver, zinc, copper and lead) and the Pinos Altos mine in Mexico (silver).

Alamos Gold Inc.

Alamos Gold is engaged in the exploration, mine development, and the mining and extraction of precious metals, primarily gold. Co.'s s primary asset is the Mulatos Mine and holds the mineral rights to the Salamandra group of concessions in the State of Sonora, Mexico, which includes several known satellite gold occurrences.

Alliant Energy Corp

Alliant Energy is a public utility holding company, engaged in providing regulated electric and natural gas service. The company's subsidiaries are: Interstate Power and Light Company, which is engaged principally in the generation and distribution of electricity and the distribution and transportation of natural gas to retail customers in select markets in Iowa; Wisconsin Power and Light Company, which is engaged principally in the generation and distribution of electricity and the distribution and transportation of natural gas to retail customers in select markets in Wisconsin; and Alliant Energy Finance, LLC, which manages a portfolio of wholly-owned subsidiaries and additional holdings.

Ameren Corporation

Ameren is a public utility holding company. Through its subsidiary, Union Electric Company, the company operates a rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution business and a rate-regulated natural gas distribution business in Missouri. Through its subsidiary, Ameren Illinois Company, the company operates rate-regulated electric transmission, electric distribution, and natural gas distribution businesses in Illinois. Through its Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois subsidiary, the company operates a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rate-regulated electric transmission business. The company also has other subsidiaries that conduct other activities, such as providing shared services.

Atmos Energy Corporation

Atmos Energy is engaged in the regulated natural gas distribution and pipeline and storage businesses. The company delivers natural gas through regulated sales and transportation arrangements to residential, commercial, public-authority and industrial customers. The company's segments are: Distribution, which is comprised of its regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations; and Pipeline and Storage, which consists of the pipeline and storage operations of its Atmos Pipeline-Texas Division (APT) and its natural gas transmission operations in Louisiana. APT has intrastate pipeline operations in Texas with a focus on the natural gas-producing areas of central, northern and eastern Texas.

Atrion Corporation

Atrion develops and manufactures products, primarily for medical applications. The company's fluid delivery products include valves designed to fill, hold and release controlled amounts of fluids or gasses for use in various intubation, intravenous, catheter and other applications. The company's primary cardiovascular products is the MPS2? Myocardial Protection System, which is used in open-heart surgery that delivers to the heart essential fluids and medications, mixes critical drugs and controls temperature, pressure and other variables. The company also manufactures medical devices that disinfect contact lenses and balloon catheters used in the treatment of nasolacrimal duct obstruction in children and adults.

Barrick Gold Corporation

Barrick Gold is engaged in the production and sale of gold, as well as related activities such as exploration and mine development. Co. also produces copper and hold interests in oil and gas properties located in Canada. Co.'s mining operations are concentrated in three regional business units: North America, South America and Australia Pacific. Co. also hold a 73.9% equity interest in African Barrick Gold plc that owns gold mines and exploration properties in Africa. Co.'s copper business unit contains producing copper mines located in Chile and Zambia; and a mine under construction located in Saudi Arabia.

Black Hills Corporation

Black Hills is a utility holding company, which operates in four segments: Electric Utilities, which generates, transmits and distributes electricity to electric utility customers in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota and Wyoming; Gas Utilities, which serves natural gas utility customers in Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming; Power Generation, which produces electric power from its wind, natural gas and coal-fired generating plants and sells the electric capacity and energy primarily to its utilities under long-term contracts; and Mining, which produces coal at its mine near Gillette, WY, and sells it under long-term contracts to mine-mouth electric generation facilities.

BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION

Boston Scientific develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Medical Surgical segment consist of: Endoscopy, which develops and manufactures devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions; and Urology and Pelvic Health, which develops and manufactures devices to treat various urological and pelvic conditions. The company's Rhythm and Neuro segment includes: Cardiac Rhythm Management, which develops and manufactures implantable devices to treat cardiac abnormalities; and Electrophysiology, which develops and manufactures medical technologies used in the diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart.

Cardiovascular Systems Inc.

Cardiovascular Systems is a medical technology company. The company has developed an orbital atherectomy systems (OAS) for both peripheral and coronary commercial applications. The primary base of the company's business is catheter-based platforms capable of treating a range of vessel sizes and plaque types, including calcified plaque. The company's products include its coronary arterial disease (CAD) product, the Diamondback 360 Coronary OAS, which is a catheter-based platform designed to facilitate stent delivery in patients with CAD who are acceptable candidates for percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or stenting due to de novo, severely calcified coronary artery lesions.

CMS Energy Corporation

CMS Energy is a holding company. The company has several subsidiaries, including: Consumers Energy Company, an electric and gas utility that serves individuals and businesses operating in the alternative energy, automotive, chemical, food, and metal products industries, as well as a group of other industries; CMS Enterprises Company, through its subsidiaries and equity investments, is engaged in domestic independent power production, including the development and operation of renewable generation, and the marketing of independent power production; and EnerBank USA, an industrial bank located in Utah that provides unsecured consumer installment loans, primarily for financing home improvements.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA Sponsored ADR

DTE Energy Company

DTE Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the generation, purchase, distribution and sale of electricity to customers in southeastern Michigan through its DTE Electric Company subsidiary, as well as in the purchase, storage, transportation, distribution and sale of natural gas throughout Michigan and the sale of storage and transportation capacity through its DTE Gas Company subsidiary. The company's non-utility operations are: gas storage and pipelines, which consists of natural gas pipeline, gathering, transportation, and storage businesses; power and industrial projects; and energy trading, which consists of energy marketing and trading operations.

EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP

Edwards Lifesciences is engaged in patient-focused medical for structural heart disease, as well as critical care and surgical monitoring. The company is a manufacturer of heart valve systems and repair products used to replace or repair a patient's diseased or defective heart valve. The company is also engaged in hemodynamic and noninvasive brain and tissue oxygenation monitoring systems used to measure a patient's cardiovascular function in the hospital setting. The company's products and technologies are categorized into four main areas: Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement, Transcatheter Mitral and Tricuspid Therapies, Surgical Structural Heart, and Critical Care.

Eldorado Gold Corp.

Eldorado Gold is engaged in the exploration, development, mining and production of gold and other mining resources in Brazil, China, Turkey and Greece.

Franco-Nevada Corporation

Franco-Nevada is a gold-focused royalty and stream company with additional interests in silver, platinum group metals, oil and gas and other resource assets located in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Africa. Co.'s portfolio includes 340 mineral and oil and gas assets covering properties at various stages from production to early stage exploration.

Kinross Gold Corporation

Kinross Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of gold and, as a by-product, silver ore and the exploration for, and the acquisition of, gold bearing properties in the Americas, the Russian Federation, West Africa and worldwide. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s proven mineral reserves for gold and silver were 1,122 ounces and 1,179 ounces respectively.7,883 7,883 7,883

Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.

Kirkland Lake Gold is a Canadian gold mining and exploration company with three producing mines in Australia: the Fosterville Gold Mine and the Stawell Gold Mine in the State of Victoria and the Cosmo Gold Mine in the Northern Territory. Co. also has a portfolio of development opportunities on its significant land package, including the Big Hill Project at Stawell and various projects in the Northern Territories. In addition, Co. owns title to a mining lease located in north-central Newfoundland, Canada.

Medtronic Plc

Newmont Corporation

Newmont is primarily a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. The company is also engaged in the production of copper, silver, lead and zinc. The company's operations are organized in five geographic regions; North America, South America, Australia, Africa and Nevada.

NiSource Inc

NiSource is an energy holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a natural gas distribution company. The company's reportable segments are: Gas Distribution Operations and Electric Operations. For its gas distribution operations, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, NiSource Gas Distribution Group, Inc., the company owns distribution subsidiaries that provide natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and Massachusetts. Through its electric operations, the company generates, transmits and distributes electricity through its subsidiary, Northern Indiana Public Service Company LLC, and engages in wholesale and transmission transactions.

NorthWestern Corporation

Northwestern provides electricity and/or natural gas to customers in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. The company's segments are: electric operations; and natural gas operations. In Montana, the company's regulated electric utility business includes generation, transmission and distribution. The company also transmits electricity for nonregulated entities owning generation, and utilities, cooperatives, and power marketers serving the electricity market. The company's regulated natural gas utility business includes production, storage, transmission and distribution. The company transmits natural gas from production receipt points and storage facilities to distribution points and other nonaffiliated transmission systems.

NovaGold Resources Inc.

NovaGold Resources is a mineral exploration company engaged in the exploration and development of gold and copper mineral properties. Co.'s primary focus is on the Donlin Gold project in Alaska. The Donlin Gold project is owned and operated by Donlin Gold LLC, a limited liability company that is owned equally by wholly owned subsidiaries of Co. and Barrick Gold Corporation. Co. also has an interest in the Galore Creek copper-gold-silver project in British Columbia, Canada. The Galore Creek project is held by a partnership owned equally by NOVAGOLD Canada Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Co., and by Teck Resources Limited.

Penumbra Inc.

Penumbra is a healthcare company. The company designs, develops, manufactures and markets medical devices. The company's Neuro products include Penumbra System brand of products that provides a form of mechanical thrombectomy used by specialist physicians to revascularize blood vessels that are blocked by clots in the intracranial vasculature. The company's Vascular products include the Ruby Coil System that consists of detachable coils and is used in clinical applications auch as active extravasations, or the escape of blood into surrounding tissue, selective embolization in patients with visceral aneurysms, embolization in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, and high flow arterial venous malformations.

ROYAL GOLD INC

Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties and similar interests. The company acquires existing stream and royalty interests or finances projects that are in production or in the development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests. A metal stream is a purchase agreement that provides, in exchange for an upfront deposit payment, the right to purchase all or a portion of one or more metals produced from a mine, at a price determined for the life of the transaction by the purchase agreement. Royalties are non-operating interests in mining projects that provide the right to a portion of revenue or metals produced from the project after deducting specified costs, if any.

Seabridge Gold

Seabridge Gold is a development stage company engaged in the acquisition and exploration of gold properties located in North America.

Stereotaxis

Stereotaxis designs, manufactures and markets robotic magnetic navigation (RMN) systems for use in a hospital's interventional surgical suite. The company's products include: Genesis RMN System and Niobe System, which enable physicians to complete interventional procedures by providing image-guided delivery of catheters and guidewires through the blood vessels and chambers of the heart to treatment sites; Odyssey Solution, which provides an integrated, real-time information solution to manage, control, record and share procedures across networks; and Stereotaxis Imaging Model S x-ray System, which provides an integrated solution for a robotic interventional operating room.

WEC Energy Group Inc

WEC Energy Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides regulated natural gas and electricity, and nonregulated renewable energy. The company's segments include: Wisconsin, which generates and distributes electric energy and provides retail natural gas distribution service; Illinois, which includes the natural gas utility operations; Electric Transmission, which owns, maintains, monitors, and operates electric transmission systems in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota; and Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure, which owns and leases generating facilities to its Wisconsin Electric Power Company subsidiary and owns underground natural gas storage facilities in Michigan.

Xcel Energy Inc.

Xcel Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas delivery company which serves customers in mid-western and western states, including portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. The company's reportable segments include: regulated electric utility, which generates, transmits and distributes electricity in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Texas and New Mexico; regulated natural gas utility, which transports, stores and distributes natural gas primarily in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Michigan and Colorado; and other, which includes steam revenue and appliance repair services.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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