Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
The Welcomed Pullback; Defensive Sector ShiftThe market has begun the pullback we noted in our 1/22/20 US Macro Vision. At the time, the S&P 500 was extended over 10% above its 200-day MA while the Nasdaq Composite extended over 14% above its 200-day MA, something that has happened less than 10 times over the last 20 years for each index. We also noted prior instances of these indexes reaching similar extended levels often resulted in sideways consolidation or a 5-10% pullback. Peak to trough declines are currently in the 3-4% range, meaning it is possible the worst of the declines are behind us. As we highlight below there has been some indicator deterioration, however longer-term trends remain constructive. Continue to buy the dips.
• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading Consumer Staples and Utilities to market weight due to bullish price and RS reversals. We consider RS improvement for these defensive areas as part of the aforementioned “indicator deterioration,†however some outperformance from defensives within a broad-based bull market is not unheard of, particularly in a low-rate environment. Additionally, we are downgrading Manufacturing (to market weight), Energy (to underweight), and Materials (to underweight)... see pages 2-4.
• Indicator Deterioration, NOT Derailment. Several indicators have deteriorated, signaling the potential for lower economic growth. Deteriorating indicators include copper, copper vs. gold, the 10-year Treasury yield, WTI crude oil, high yield spreads, the US dollar, and the small vs. large-cap ratio. At the same time, we have reason to believe the moves in these indicators are closer to their end than their beginning, meaning a reprieve for the equity market may be forthcoming... see chart below and page 5.
• Longer-term Trends Remain Constructive. There is still plenty that we can point to supporting our bullish outlook, and many of these signs also argue that support is not far off. In addition to some of the indicators listed above, several other key areas are nearing support, including high yield bonds (see HYG below), homebuilders, semiconductors, software, Discretionary, banks, energy, MSCI EM, and the STOXX 600... see pages 6-8.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Utilities, Financials, and Materials: UT-01 Multi-Utilities, Large-Cap, UT-03 Utilities, Southeast, FN-45 REITs, Industrial, and MA-26 Gold, Western Hemisphere, Large-Cap... see pages 16-27.
Agnico-Eagle Mines is a gold mining company with mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland. Co. earns a proportion of its revenues from the production and sale of gold in both dore bar and concentrate form. The remainder of revenue and cash flow is generated by the production and sale of byproduct metals. The revenue from byproduct metals is mainly generated by production at the LaRonde mine in Canada (silver, zinc, copper and lead) and the Pinos Altos mine in Mexico (silver).
American Electric Power Company is a public utility holding company. The public utility subsidiaries of the company provide electric service, consisting of generation, transmission and distribution, on an integrated basis to their retail customers. The service areas of the company's public utility subsidiaries cover portions of the states of Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. Transmission networks are interconnected with distribution facilities in the territories served. The company's service company subsidiary provides accounting, administrative, information systems, engineering, financial, legal, maintenance and other services.
Barrick Gold is engaged in the production and sale of gold, as well as related activities such as exploration and mine development. Co. also produces copper and hold interests in oil and gas properties located in Canada. Co.'s mining operations are concentrated in three regional business units: North America, South America and Australia Pacific. Co. also hold a 73.9% equity interest in African Barrick Gold plc that owns gold mines and exploration properties in Africa. Co.'s copper business unit contains producing copper mines located in Chile and Zambia; and a mine under construction located in Saudi Arabia.
Easterly Government Properties is an internally managed real estate investment trust focused primarily on the acquisition, development and management of Class A commercial properties that are leased to U.S. Government agencies. The operations of the company's is carried on primarily through Easterly Government Properties LP (the Operating Partnership) and the wholly owned subsidiaries of the Operating Partnership. The Operating Partnership holds substantially all of the company's assets and conducts substantially all the company's business.
Entergy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an integrated energy company engaged mainly in electric power production and retail distribution operations. The company owns and operates power plants. The company has two segments: Utility, which generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric power to retail and wholesale customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas; and Entergy Wholesale Commodities, which includes the ownership, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power plants, located in the northern United States, the sale of the electric power produced by its operating plants to wholesale customers, and also provides services to other nuclear power plant owners.
Eversource Energy is a public utility holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company has four segments: electric distribution, which is engaged in the distribution of electricity to retail customers in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire; electric transmission, which owns and maintains transmission facilities that are part of an interstate power transmission grid over which electricity is transmitted throughout New England; natural gas distribution, which distributes natural gas to communities in Massachusetts and cities and towns in Connecticut; and water distribution, which provides water services in towns and cities in Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire.
Franco-Nevada is a gold-focused royalty and stream company with additional interests in silver, platinum group metals, oil and gas and other resource assets located in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Africa. Co.'s portfolio includes 340 mineral and oil and gas assets covering properties at various stages from production to early stage exploration.
Kinross Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of gold and, as a by-product, silver ore and the exploration for, and the acquisition of, gold bearing properties in the Americas, the Russian Federation, West Africa and worldwide. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s proven mineral reserves for gold and silver were 1,122 ounces and 1,179 ounces respectively.7,883 7,883 7,883
Newmont is primarily a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. The company is also engaged in the production of copper, silver, lead and zinc. The company's operations are organized in five geographic regions; North America, South America, Australia, Africa and Nevada.
NextEra Energy is a holding company, engaged in electric power and energy infrastructure. The company has two principal businesses, Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and NextEra Energy Resources, LLC (NEER). FPL is a rate-regulated electric utility engaged primarily in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electric energy in Florida. FPL provides service to its electric customers through a transmission and distribution system that links its generation facilities to its customers. NEER, through its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, manages and operates electric generation facilities in wholesale energy markets primarily in the United States and Canada.
Prologis is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust and is the sole general partner of Prologis, L.P. The company owns, manages and develops logistics facilities, with a focus on the consumption side of the global supply chain. Most of the company's properties in the United States are wholly owned, while its properties outside the United States are primarily held in co-investment ventures. The company has two segments: Real Estate Operations, which represents the ownership and development of operating properties, and includes land held for development and properties under development; and Strategic Capital, which represents the management of unconsolidated co-investment ventures.
Rexford Industrial Realty is a holding company and a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust. Through its controlling interest in its sole general partner, Rexford Industrial Realty, L.P. and its subsidiaries, the company owns, manages, leases, acquires and develops industrial real estate primarily located in Southern California infill markets.
Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties and similar interests. The company acquires existing stream and royalty interests or finances projects that are in production or in the development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests. A metal stream is a purchase agreement that provides, in exchange for an upfront deposit payment, the right to purchase all or a portion of one or more metals produced from a mine, at a price determined for the life of the transaction by the purchase agreement. Royalties are non-operating interests in mining projects that provide the right to a portion of revenue or metals produced from the project after deducting specified costs, if any.
Sempra Energy is an energy-services holding company. The company's segments are: San Diego Gas & Electric Company, which provides electric services and natural gas services in Southern California; Southern California Gas Company, which owns and operates a natural gas distribution, transmission and storage system that supplies natural gas in Southern California and portions of central California; Sempra Texas Utilities, which includes Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC that provides electricity to consumers; Sempra Mexico, which develops, owns and operates, or holds interests in, energy infrastructure in Mexico; and Sempra LNG, which develops projects for the export of liquefied natural gas.
Southern is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Alabama Power Company, Georgia Power Company, and Mississippi Power Company, the company is engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, and purchase of electricity and the sale of electric service in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. The company's Southern Power Company subsidiary develops, constructs, acquires, owns, and manages power generation assets, including renewable energy projects, and sells electricity at market-based rates in the wholesale market. The company's Southern Company Gas subsidiary is an energy services holding company whose primary business is the distribution of natural gas in Illinois, Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee.
STAG Industrial is a real estate operating company focused on the acquisition and operation of single-tenant industrial properties. The company owns interests in all of its properties and conduct substantially all of its business through its operating partnership, STAG Industrial Operating Partnership, L.P.
Terreno Realty is an internally managed real estate investment trust. The company acquires, owns and operates industrial real estate in six main coastal United States markets: Los Angeles, Northern New Jersey/New York City, San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, Miami, and Washington, D.C. The company invests in several types of industrial real estate, including warehouse/distribution, flex (including light industrial and research and development) and transshipment and improved land. The company targets functional buildings in infill locations that may be shared by multiple tenants and that cater to customer demand within the various submarkets in which the company operates.
WEC Energy Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides regulated natural gas and electricity, and nonregulated renewable energy. The company's segments include: Wisconsin, which generates and distributes electric energy and provides retail natural gas distribution service; Illinois, which includes the natural gas utility operations; Electric Transmission, which owns, maintains, monitors, and operates electric transmission systems in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota; and Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure, which owns and leases generating facilities to its Wisconsin Electric Power Company subsidiary and owns underground natural gas storage facilities in Michigan.
Xcel Energy is a regulated electric and natural gas delivery company which serves customers in mid-western and western states, including portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin. The company's reportable segments include: regulated electric utility, which generates, transmits and distributes electricity in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota, Colorado, Texas and New Mexico; regulated natural gas utility, which transports, stores and distributes natural gas primarily in portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Michigan and Colorado; and other, which includes steam revenue and appliance repair services.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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