Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 48.31 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upside Momentum Lost, But Not Breaking Down

Uptrends from the March lows were violated late last week for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow. Additionally, the S&P 500 failed to break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 2934.49, while the Nasdaq and Dow also stalled at key resistance levels. This tells us that recent highs are likely to represent a near-term top. As we outlined in last week's Compass, our base case was for some near-term consolidation while the market is in a “wait-and-see” phase as it relates to states re-opening; this is where we are right now as the market has lost upside momentum, but is not yet breaking down. Below we highlight key levels and several metrics we are watching that will provide us clues as to where the S&P 500 is headed next.

· S&P 500 Short-Term Levels. We are watching for support at 2795; a break below this level will mean the sellers are gaining the upper hand, however it will be hard to get too bearish as long as the S&P 500 is above this support level. The next support levels come in at 2725-2735 followed by 2650. As for resistance, we are watching last Friday morning's gap in the 2870-2900 range; the longer this gap is left unfilled the more likely we could get a powerful bearish move (a la the breakaway gaps from Feb. 24 (bearish), March 24 (bullish), and April 6 (bullish). If there is a break above 2900, then 2950-3000 would be the next resistance area... see chart below.

· Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 small-cap indexes failed to sustain breakouts above major resistance from the Dec. 2018 lows. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $123-124. A break below this level would indicate further downside is likely, but as long as the IWM is above $123 it is hard to get too bearish. Additionally, RS improvement is encouraging, but in order to be consistent with prior major historical bottoms we need to see RS make a higher low (at minimum)... see page 3.

· Financials, Industrials, Transports Remain Problematic. Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI), and Transports (IYT) remain in RS downtrends. This is one thing that has caused us to be skeptical of this rally as major historical bottoms are characterized by outperformance from these Sectors (and also from small-caps mentioned above)... see page 4.
Underlyings
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

Agnico-Eagle Mines is a gold mining company with mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland. Co. earns a proportion of its revenues from the production and sale of gold in both dore bar and concentrate form. The remainder of revenue and cash flow is generated by the production and sale of byproduct metals. The revenue from byproduct metals is mainly generated by production at the LaRonde mine in Canada (silver, zinc, copper and lead) and the Pinos Altos mine in Mexico (silver).

Alamos Gold Inc.

Alamos Gold is engaged in the exploration, mine development, and the mining and extraction of precious metals, primarily gold. Co.'s s primary asset is the Mulatos Mine and holds the mineral rights to the Salamandra group of concessions in the State of Sonora, Mexico, which includes several known satellite gold occurrences.

AudioCodes Ltd.

AudioCodes designs, develops and sells products and services for voice and data over packet networks. Voice over packet, or VoP, networks consist of key network elements such as software switches, application servers, Internet protocol (IP) phones, media gateways and session border controllers (SBC). Co.'s products primarily provide the media gateway and SBC element in the network, as well as voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP, end-points such as IP Phones and VoIP mobile clients. Multi-service business routers integrate media gateway functionality with data routing and network access. The media gateways connect legacy and IP networks.

AXT Inc.

AXT is a developer and producer of compound and single element semiconductor substrates, also known as wafers. The company's compound substrates combine indium with phosphorous (indium phosphide: InP) or gallium with arsenic (gallium arsenide: GaAs). InP is a semiconductor substrate used in, among others, fiber optic lasers and detectors, passive optical networks, metro and data center connectivity, silicon photonics, infrared motion control and infrared thermal imaging. The company also makes semi-insulating GaAs substrates used in making semiconductor chips in applications such as power amplifiers for wireless devices, transistors and solar cells for drones. In addition, the company sells certain raw materials.

Bio-Techne Corporation

Bio-Techne and its subsidiaries develop, manufacture and sell biotechnology life science reagents, instruments and services for the research and clinical diagnostic markets.Co.'s segments: Protein Sciences, which developes and manufactures purified proteins and reagent solutions, cytokines and growth factors, antibodies, immunoassays, biologically active small molecule compounds, tissue culture reagents and T-Cell activation technologies; and Diagnostics and Genomics, which develops and manufactures diagnostic products, including Food and Drug Administration-regulated controls, calibrators, blood gas and clinical chemistry controls and other reagents for Original Equipment Manufacturer.

Cameco Corporation

Cameco and its subsidiaries are engaged in the exploration for and the development, mining, refining, conversion and fabrication of uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and other countries. Co. has three reportable segments: uranium, which explores for, mines, mills, purchases, and sells uranium concentrate; fuel services, which refines, converts and fabricates uranium concentrate, and purchases and sells conversion services; and electricity, which generates and sells electricity through its 31.6% interest in the Bruce Power Limited Partnership, which operates four nuclear reactors and manages the overall site in southern Ontario.

CAREDX INC

CareDx together with its subsidiaries, is a medicine company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of healthcare solutions for transplant patients and caregivers. The company provides testing services, products, and digital solutions along the pre- and post-transplant patient journey, and is a provider of genomics-based information for transplant patients. The company's testing services consist of AlloSure? Kidney, which is a donor-derived cell-free DNA solution for kidney transplant patients, and AlloMap? Heart, which is a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients.

Ciena Corporation

Ciena is a networking systems, services and software company, providing solutions that enable a range of network operators to deploy and manage networks that deliver services to businesses and consumers. The company provides hardware, software and services that support the transport, switching, aggregation, service delivery and management of video, data and voice traffic on communications networks. The company's solutions are used by communications service providers, cable and multiservice operators, Web-scale providers, submarine network operators, governments, enterprises, research and education institutions and other network operators.

Electromed

Electromed develops, manufactures, markets and sells products that provide airway clearance therapy, including the SmartVest? Airway Clearance System (SmartVest System) and related products, to patients with compromised pulmonary function. The SmartVest System is available in two models, SV2100 and SQL?. The SmartVest SQL System consists of an inflatable therapy garment, a programmable air pulse generator and a patented single-hose that delivers air pulses from the generator to the garment. The company also markets the Single Patient Use SmartVest? and SmartVest Wrap? to health care providers in the acute care setting.

Emergent BioSolutions Inc.

Emergent BioSolutions is a life sciences company. The company is focused on preparedness and response products and solutions that address the following categories: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and Explosives; emerging infectious diseases; travel health; emerging health crises; acute/emergency care; and contract development and manufacturing. The company also has a development pipeline consisting of a mix of both pre-clinical and clinical-stage product candidates, including Trobigard? a combination drug-device auto injector product candidate. In addition, the company has a fully integrated molecule-to-market biologics CDMO business offerings (development services, drug substance and drug product).

Equinix Inc.

Equinix provides colocation space and related offerings. The company operates International Business Exchange? (IBX?) data centers across the Americas; Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia-Pacific geographic regions where customers directly interconnect with a network ecosystem of partners and customers. The company's data center solutions include IBX Data Centers and xScale Data Centers. The company's Interconnection Solution connect businesses within and between its data centers across its global platform. The company's edge services help businesses deploy as-a-service networking, security and hardware across its data center footprint, as an alternative to buying, owning and managing the physical infrastructure.

F5 Networks Inc.

F5 Networks is a provider of multi-cloud application services, which enable its customers to develop, deploy, operate, secure, and govern applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. The company's application services are available as cloud-based, software-as-a-service, and software-only solutions supported for multi-cloud environments. In connection with its solutions, the company provides a range of services, including consulting, training, installation, maintenance, and other technical support services. The company's products and solutions include hardware platforms, software and software-as-a-service platforms, cloud-based managed services, and service provider solutions.

Gold Fields Ltd. ADS

Halozyme Therapeutics Inc.

Halozyme Therapeutics is a biopharma technology platform company that provides solutions to improve patient experience and outcomes. The company's approved product and its collaborators' approved products and product candidates are based on rHuPH20, its patented recombinant human hyaluronidase enzyme. The company refers to the application of rHuPH20 to facilitate the delivery of other drugs or fluids as its ENHANZE? Drug Delivery Technology (ENHANZE). The company licenses the ENHANZE technology to form collaborations with biopharmaceutical companies that develop or market drugs requiring or benefiting from injection via the subcutaneous route of administration.

Immunomedics Inc.

Immunomedics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing monoclonal antibody-based products for the targeted treatment of cancer. The company's product candidate is sacituzumab govitecan (IMMU-132), an antibody-drug conjugate for the treatment of patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer who previously received at least two prior therapies for metastatic disease. The company also has other product candidates, which target solid tumors and hematologic malignancies in various stages of clinical and preclinical development, such as labetuzumab govitecan that binds the CEACAM5 antigen expressed on CRC and other solid cancers, and IMMU-140 for the treatment of hematologic malignancies.

IRobot Corporation

iRobot is a consumer robot company. The company's portfolio of solutions features technologies for the connected home and concepts in cleaning, mapping and navigation, human-robot interaction, and physical solutions. The company provides multiple Roomba floor vacuuming robots. The Braava robots automatically dust and damp mop hard-surface floors using cleaning cloths or the company's designed reusable microfiber cloths and include a reservoir that dispenses liquid throughout the cleaning cycle to keep the cloth damp. The robotic lawn mower, Terra t7 is being designed with a mapping and navigation system. Using the engaging Root Coding App, kids can learn coding fundamentals while they play, explore, and create.

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation

Lattice Semiconductor develops semiconductor technologies. The company delivers two types of semiconductor devices to its customers: Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), and Video Connectivity Application Specific Standard Products (ASSPs). The company's FPGAs offerings consist of five product family lines: the ECP families, the MachXO families, iCE40 families, CrossLink, and Programmable Mixed Signal devices. The company's Video Connectivity ASSPs perform various functions, including ensuring interoperability, improving picture quality, converting between resolutions, and transmitting / receiving content without the need for additional components.

Montage Resources Corp.

Montage Resource is an independent exploration and production company engaged in the acquisition and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Appalachian Basin of the U.S., which encompasses the Utica Shale, Indian Castle/Flat Creek Shales and Marcellus Shale prospective areas.

Qorvo Inc.

Qorvo is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, develops, manufactures and markets its products to U.S. and international original equipment manufacturers and original design manufacturers in two operating segments: Mobile Products, which is a supplier of cellular radio frequency (RF) and Wi-Fi solutions for mobile devices, including smartphones, wearables, laptops, tablets and cellular-based applications for the Internet of Things (IoT); and Infrastructure and Defense Products, which is a supplier of RF and system-on-a-chip solutions for cellular base stations and other wireless communications infrastructure, defense, smart home, automotive and other IoT applications.

ROYAL GOLD INC

Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties and similar interests. The company acquires existing stream and royalty interests or finances projects that are in production or in the development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests. A metal stream is a purchase agreement that provides, in exchange for an upfront deposit payment, the right to purchase all or a portion of one or more metals produced from a mine, at a price determined for the life of the transaction by the purchase agreement. Royalties are non-operating interests in mining projects that provide the right to a portion of revenue or metals produced from the project after deducting specified costs, if any.

Sandstorm Gold Ltd.

Sandstorm Gold is a resource based company that seeks to acquire gold streams ("Gold Streams") from companies that have advanced stage development projects or operating mines. In return for making upfront payments to acquire a Gold Stream, Co. receives the right to purchase, at a fixed price per ounce, a percentage of a mine's gold production for the life of the mine. Co. is focused on acquiring Gold Streams from mines with low production costs, signicant exploration potential and strong management teams.

Vicor Corp.

Vicor designs, develops, manufactures, and markets modular power components and power systems for converting electrical power. Reflecting its Power Component Design Methodology, the company provides a range of modular building blocks enabling design of a power system specific to a customer's needs. The company categorizes its product portfolios as either Advanced Products or Brick Products. The company also sells a range of electrical and mechanical accessories for use with its products. The Advanced Products category consists of products which are used to implement the company's proprietary Factorized Power Architecture?, a power distribution architecture. The Brick Products category consists of integrated power systems.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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