Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 48.03 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Awaiting Powell's Speech Today and CPI Thursday

We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023. We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490). In our view, reducing risk near resistance and adding risk near support will be key to outperforming in 2023 (alongside Sector/stock selection). Shorter-term, the S&P 500 has been trading in a tight sideways range for 3.5 weeks; 3910 remains short-term resistance with support at 3764. A break above 3910 would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, while a break below 3764 would likely mean a test of the 2022 lows.

U.S. Dollar, High Yield Spreads. We are watching both the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads to help determine whether a tradable rally has begun. Two important levels include major $103 support on the DXY and 480 bps on high yield spreads; breaks below these levels would likely mean a tradable rally is underway in the broad equity market. Absent breakdowns below these levels, we would expect equities to remain under pressure... see page 3.
Sector Resistance Levels to Watch. Several Sectors are again testing important resistance levels -- many are levels we have discussed since late-November. This includes $36 on Financials (XLF), $101 on Industrials (XLI), $82 on Materials (XLB), and $133 on cap-weighted Consumer Discretionary (XLY). If these Sectors can break above their respective resistance levels, it would be further evidence that a tradable rally is underway... see page 4.
Big Picture Trends. Emerging markets (EEM) are bottoming, led by China (MCHI) which displays a bullish 2-year downtrend reversal. The EURO STOXX 50 is breaking above 4030. The Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) is testing key support at $32-32.50. The 10-Year Treasury yield continues to consolidate between support at 3.4-3.5% and resistance at 3.9%, and is currently approaching support... see pages 5-6.
Underlyings
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

Agnico-Eagle Mines is a gold mining company with mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland. Co. earns a proportion of its revenues from the production and sale of gold in both dore bar and concentrate form. The remainder of revenue and cash flow is generated by the production and sale of byproduct metals. The revenue from byproduct metals is mainly generated by production at the LaRonde mine in Canada (silver, zinc, copper and lead) and the Pinos Altos mine in Mexico (silver).

Alamos Gold Inc.

Alamos Gold is engaged in the exploration, mine development, and the mining and extraction of precious metals, primarily gold. Co.'s s primary asset is the Mulatos Mine and holds the mineral rights to the Salamandra group of concessions in the State of Sonora, Mexico, which includes several known satellite gold occurrences.

Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting, casting, and rolling), and energy generation. Through direct and indirect ownership, the company has 30 operating locations in nine countries around the world, situated primarily in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and United States.

Alumina Ltd ADS

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd.

Barrick Gold Corporation

Barrick Gold is engaged in the production and sale of gold, as well as related activities such as exploration and mine development. Co. also produces copper and hold interests in oil and gas properties located in Canada. Co.'s mining operations are concentrated in three regional business units: North America, South America and Australia Pacific. Co. also hold a 73.9% equity interest in African Barrick Gold plc that owns gold mines and exploration properties in Africa. Co.'s copper business unit contains producing copper mines located in Chile and Zambia; and a mine under construction located in Saudi Arabia.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

Berkshire Hathaway is a holding company. Co.'s subsidiaries are engaged in several business activities which include: underwriting private passenger automobile insurance; operation of a railroad system in North America; regulated electric and gas utility; manufacturing of products including industrial, consumer and building products; wholesale distribution of groceries and non-food items; provider of services including aviation pilot training, electronic components distribution and retailing businesses, including automotive dealerships; and manufactured housing and related consumer financing, transportation equipment, manufacturing and leasing, and furniture leasing.

Bertelsmann SE & Co. KGaA

Chubb Limited

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA Sponsored ADR

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Eldorado Gold Corp.

Eldorado Gold is engaged in the exploration, development, mining and production of gold and other mining resources in Brazil, China, Turkey and Greece.

Franco-Nevada Corporation

Franco-Nevada is a gold-focused royalty and stream company with additional interests in silver, platinum group metals, oil and gas and other resource assets located in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Africa. Co.'s portfolio includes 340 mineral and oil and gas assets covering properties at various stages from production to early stage exploration.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace is a provider of engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The company's primary businesses focus on jet engine components, aerospace fastening systems, and titanium structural parts necessary for mission-critical performance and efficiency in aerospace and defense applications, as well as forged wheels for commercial transportation.

IAMGOLD Corporation

IAMGold is engaged in the exploration for, development and operation of gold mining properties, and the operation of a niobium mine.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

Kinross Gold Corporation

Kinross Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of gold and, as a by-product, silver ore and the exploration for, and the acquisition of, gold bearing properties in the Americas, the Russian Federation, West Africa and worldwide. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s proven mineral reserves for gold and silver were 1,122 ounces and 1,179 ounces respectively.7,883 7,883 7,883

Newmont Corporation

Newmont is primarily a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. The company is also engaged in the production of copper, silver, lead and zinc. The company's operations are organized in five geographic regions; North America, South America, Australia, Africa and Nevada.

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

NovaGold Resources Inc.

NovaGold Resources is a mineral exploration company engaged in the exploration and development of gold and copper mineral properties. Co.'s primary focus is on the Donlin Gold project in Alaska. The Donlin Gold project is owned and operated by Donlin Gold LLC, a limited liability company that is owned equally by wholly owned subsidiaries of Co. and Barrick Gold Corporation. Co. also has an interest in the Galore Creek copper-gold-silver project in British Columbia, Canada. The Galore Creek project is held by a partnership owned equally by NOVAGOLD Canada Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Co., and by Teck Resources Limited.

Progressive Corporation

Progressive is an insurance holding company. The company's insurance subsidiaries and affiliates provide personal and commercial auto insurance, personal residential property insurance, and other insurance and related services. The company's Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational and other vehicles. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance, each predominately for small businesses. The company focuses on property insurance for homes, condos, manufactured homes, and renters, as well as personal umbrella insurance and primary and excess flood insurance.

Rio Tinto PLC ADS (Mexico)

ROYAL GOLD INC

Royal Gold acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties and similar interests. The company acquires existing stream and royalty interests or finances projects that are in production or in the development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests. A metal stream is a purchase agreement that provides, in exchange for an upfront deposit payment, the right to purchase all or a portion of one or more metals produced from a mine, at a price determined for the life of the transaction by the purchase agreement. Royalties are non-operating interests in mining projects that provide the right to a portion of revenue or metals produced from the project after deducting specified costs, if any.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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