Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 45.94 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500

In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. We also said it likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation, that one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common (even during bull markets), and to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers. The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline over 2.5-weeks, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. So far this has been a stellar buy area, and we are bullish as long as the S&P 500 is above 5500. In the email subject line of last week's Compass (3/18/25) we included that "strong buying demand Friday and Monday [3/14 and 3/17] sug
Underlyings
American International Group Inc.

American International Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of property casualty insurance, life insurance, retirement solutions, and other financial services. The company's businesses include General Insurance, which provides insurance products and services for commercial and personal insurance customers; Life and Retirement, which brings together a portfolio of life insurance, retirement and institutional products provided through a multichannel distribution network; and Other Operations, which include Blackboard U.S. Holdings, Inc., a subsidiary focused on delivering commercial insurance solutions using digital technology, data analytics and automation.

Assurant Inc.

Assurant is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of lifestyle and housing solutions. The company operates in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific through three segments: Global Lifestyle, which provides mobile device solutions and extended service products and related services for consumer electronics and appliances; Global Housing, which provides lender-placed homeowners insurance, lender-placed manufactured housing insurance and lender-placed flood insurance; renters insurance and related products and voluntary manufactured housing insurance; and Global Preneed, which provides pre-funded funeral insurance, final need insurance and related services.

Axis Capital Holdings Limited

Balwin Properties Pty Ltd

Balwin Properties Ltd. Balwin Properties Limited is a home builder in South Africa. The Company focuses on developing residential estates. The Company's segments include United Kingdom and South Africa. The Company offers its developments in Cape Town, Somerset West, Johannesburg (JHB) North, JHB South, JHB East and Pretoria East. Its developments in Cape Town include The Sandown, Cape Town. Its developments in Somerset West include Paardevlei Lifestyle Estate, such as Crescent Houses, Duplexes and Apartments; Paardevlei Square, and De Velde Estate. Its developments in JHB North include Amsterdam, Olivedale; The Cambridge, Bryanston, and The Polofields, Waterfall. Its developments in JHB South include Balboa Park, Oakdene. Its developments in JHB East include Westlake, Modderfontein; Malakite, Greenstone; Greenstone Crest, Greenstone, and Greenstone Ridge, Greenstone. Its developments in Pretoria East include The Blyde, Pretoria East. Its completed developments include Stanley Park, Oakdene, and The Isle.

First American Financial Corporation

First American Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the business of providing financial services through its segments. The title insurance and services segment issues title insurance policies on residential and commercial property; provides closing and/or escrow services; accommodates tax-deferred exchanges of real estate; provides access to title plant data and records; and provides appraisals and other valuation-related products and services, lien release and document custodial services, and warehouse lending services. The specialty insurance segment issues property and casualty insurance policies and sells home warranty products.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a mining company. The company operates assets with proven and probable reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum, and the company is a publicly traded copper producer. The company's portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, copper and gold deposits; and mining operations in North America and South America, including the Morenci minerals district in Arizona and the Cerro Verde operation in Peru. The company has organized its mining operations into four primary divisions: North America copper mines, South America mining, Indonesia mining and Molybdenum mines.

Hanover Insurance Group Inc.

The Hanover Insurance Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company business operations are property and casualty insurance products and services. The company markets its products and services through independent agents and brokers. The company conducts three operating segments: Commercial Lines, which includes commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workers' compensation, and other commercial coverages; Personal Lines, which includes personal automobile, homeowners, and other personal coverages; and Other, which provides investment advisory services to affiliates and also manages assets for unaffiliated institutions such as insurance companies, retirement plans and foundations.

Horace Mann Educators Corporation

Horace Mann Educators is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company has the following segments: Property and Casualty, which includes private passenger automobile insurance and residential home insurance; Supplemental, which includes heart, cancer, accident and limited short-term supplemental disability coverages and it also markets life insurance products; Retirement, which markets both fixed and variable annuity contracts, primarily on a tax-qualified basis; and Life, which primarily provides term and whole life insurance products as well as indexed universal life products and, from time to time, revises products and product features or develops new products.

Kemper Corporation

Kemper is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides automobile, homeowners, life, health, and other insurance products to individuals and businesses. The company conducts its operations through three operating segments: Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance, which provides personal and commercial automobile insurance to consumers who have had difficulty obtaining standard or preferred risk insurance; Preferred Property and Casualty Insurance, which sells preferred automobile insurance, homeowners insurance and other personal insurance; and Life and Health Insurance, which provides individual life and supplemental accident and health insurance products.

Kinross Gold Corporation

Kinross Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of gold and, as a by-product, silver ore and the exploration for, and the acquisition of, gold bearing properties in the Americas, the Russian Federation, West Africa and worldwide. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s proven mineral reserves for gold and silver were 1,122 ounces and 1,179 ounces respectively.7,883 7,883 7,883

MicroStrategy Incorporated Class A

MicroStrategy is a provider of enterprise analytics software and services. The company's reportable operating segment is engaged in the design, development, marketing, and sales of its software platform through licensing arrangements and cloud subscriptions and related services. The company's main offering is MicroStrategy 2020?, which delivers modern analytics on an open, enterprise platform. The company also provides MicroStrategy Consulting? and MicroStrategy Education? to help customers deploy, optimize, and manage their analytics initiatives.

Old Republic International Corporation

Old Republic International is a holding company engaged in the business of insurance underwriting and related services. Through its regulated insurance company subsidiaries, the company conducts its operations in three main segments: General Insurance Group, which is a commercial lines insurance business focused on liability insurance coverages; Title Insurance Group, which consists mainly of the issuance of policies to real estate purchasers and investors based upon searches of the public records, which contain information concerning interests in real property; and the Republic Financial Indemnity Group Run-off Business, which consists of mortgage guaranty and consumer credit indemnity operations.

Palantir Technologies

Progressive Corporation

Progressive is an insurance holding company. The company's insurance subsidiaries and affiliates provide personal and commercial auto insurance, personal residential property insurance, and other insurance and related services. The company's Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational and other vehicles. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance, each predominately for small businesses. The company focuses on property insurance for homes, condos, manufactured homes, and renters, as well as personal umbrella insurance and primary and excess flood insurance.

Southern Copper Corporation

Southern Copper is a copper producer. The company's mining, smelting and refining facilities are located in Peru and Mexico and the company conducts exploration activities in those countries and in Argentina, Chile and Ecuador. The company's Peruvian copper operations involve mining, milling and flotation of copper ore to produce copper concentrates and molybdenum concentrates, the smelting of copper concentrates to produce blister and anode copper, and the refining of anode copper to produce copper cathodes. The company's Mexican operations are conducted through its subsidiary, Minera Mexico, S.A. de C.V., which engages primarily in the mining and processing of copper, molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold and lead.

Taseko Mines Limited

Taseko Mines is engaged in the exploration, acquisition, development and sale of gold copper, molybdenum, niobium and other related mines within the province of British Columbia, Canada.

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

Thermo Fisher Scientific is engaged in serving science. The company's segments include: Life Sciences Solutions, which provides reagents, instruments and consumables used in biological and medical research, discovery and production of new drugs and vaccines as well as diagnosis of disease; Analytical Instruments, which provides instruments, consumables, software and services that are used for a range of applications in the laboratory, on the production line and in the field; and Specialty Diagnostics, which provides diagnostic test kits, reagents, culture media, instruments and associated products for customers in healthcare, clinical, pharmaceutical, industrial, and food safety laboratories.

W. R. Berkley Corporation

W. R. Berkley is an insurance holding company. The company operates in two segments of the property casualty insurance business: Insurance, which includes commercial insurance business, including excess and surplus lines, admitted lines and specialty personal lines throughout the United States, as well as insurance business in the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, South America, Canada, Mexico, Scandinavia, Asia and Australia; and Reinsurance, which provides reinsurance business on a facultative and treaty basis, primarily in the United States, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Australia, the Asia-Pacific region and South Africa.

Western Copper and Gold

Western Copper and Gold is an exploration stage company that is engaged in exploration and development of the Casino mineral property located in Yukon, Canada. The Casino property is host to one of the undeveloped porphyry deposits in Canada containing large amounts of gold, copper, and molybdenum in its one billion tonnes of reserves.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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