Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Growing Confidence That the Lows Are InIn our 9/26/23 and 10/3/23 Compass reports, we discussed the increasing odds of a deeper pullback to a confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on the S&P 500, but that as long as this support holds, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX. Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our outlook, which remains unchanged; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week). The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish. Additionally, the SPX is breaking above 4335 short-term resistance, meaning a test of the downtrend from the July highs near 4450-4480 is likely.
Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In. The following is a list of reasons why we believe the lows are in; as long as these remain true, we are constructive:
Countless supports are hol
American International Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of property casualty insurance, life insurance, retirement solutions, and other financial services. The company's businesses include General Insurance, which provides insurance products and services for commercial and personal insurance customers; Life and Retirement, which brings together a portfolio of life insurance, retirement and institutional products provided through a multichannel distribution network; and Other Operations, which include Blackboard U.S. Holdings, Inc., a subsidiary focused on delivering commercial insurance solutions using digital technology, data analytics and automation.
Cboe Global Markets is an exchange holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides trading and investment solutions to investors. The company provides trading across a range of products in various asset classes and geographies, such as options, futures, United States and European equities, exchange-traded products, global foreign exchange and multi-asset volatility products based on the Cboe Volatility Index exchange-traded options and futures products. In addition to its exchanges providing a marketplace and listing venue for the trading of securities and derivatives the company calculates proprietary indices that are used as the basis for proprietary products or licensed for use by third parties.
CME Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company exchanges provides a range of global benchmark products across asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), agricultural, energy and metal commodities. The company provides futures and options on futures trading across asset classes through its subsidiary, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) Globex platform, cash and repo fixed income trading via BrokerTec, and cash and OTC FX trading via EBS. In addition, the company operates central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing, a division of CME. The company also provides optimization, reconciliation and processing services through TriOptima, Traiana and Reset.
Interactive Brokers Group is a holding company. The company together with its subsidiary, IBG LLC, is an automated global electronic broker engaged in executing and clearing trades in securities, futures, foreign exchange instruments, bonds and mutual funds on various electronic exchanges and market centers and providing custody, prime brokerage, securities and margin lending services to customers. The company's principal business segment is electronic brokerage. The company conducts its electronic brokerage business through certain Interactive Brokers subsidiaries. As an electronic broker, the company executes, clears and settles trades globally for both institutional and individual customers.
MarketAxess Holdings operates an electronic trading platform that enables fixed-income market participants to trade corporate bonds and other types of fixed-income instruments using its patented technology. Through its Open Trading? protocols, the company executes trades in certain bond between and among institutional investor and broker-dealer clients. The company also provides trading-related products and services, including: Composite+ pricing and other market data products to assist clients with trading decisions; auto-execution and other execution services for clients requiring specialized workflow solutions; connectivity solutions that facilitate straight-through processing; and technology services.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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