Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Monitoring Rising Treasury Yields & U.S. Dollar (DXY)

The Fed wanting "greater confidence" that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2% target signals a patient approach with respect to rate cuts, meaning a more restrictive policy than the market expected. This is disproportionately hitting small- and mid-caps which are more sensitive to higher interest rates. This suggests we could see further consolidation for small- and mid-caps, while large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI) remain bullish thanks to continued strength from several mega-caps (AMZN, META, NVDA, MSFT, etc.). Our bullish outlook remains appropriate, but we discuss what would lead us to get cautious.

Treasury Yields, U.S. Dollar (DXY). When considering the most important metrics in this market, Treasury yields have to be front and center. To that end, we are watching short-term resistances of 4.95% on the 1-year yield and 4.50% on the 2-year yield. In terms of the U.S. dollar (DXY), we are watching short-term resistance at $104.60. Breakouts above these levels could result in more pullback/consolidation. Ultimately, we believe any weakness in equity indexes is likely to present a buying opportunity as long as the 10-year Treasury yield is below 4.35% and the DXY is below $106... see charts below and page 3.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI. Broadly speaking, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI remain bullish with uptrends intact. Supports we are watching include 4800 on the S&P 500 and $411 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ); we would need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to expect any meaningful correction... see page 4.
Small- and Mid-Caps. Instead of resuming their prior uptrends, it appears the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM) and the Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF, the entire U.S. market excluding the S&P 500) are continuing their pullback/consolidation that began in late-December. As long as the IWM and VXF are above $178.50 and $157 supports, we expect more upside in 2024. On the other hand, breakdowns below these critical supports would be our cue to get cautious... see page 5.
Defensives Still Underperforming. Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) are at 20+ year RS lows, and are showing no signs of RS bottoms. We would need to see bullish RS reversals in XLP and XLU in order to get more cautious on the broad equity market.
Underlyings
Applied Industrial Technologies Inc.

Applied Industrial Technologies is a distributor of bearings, power transmission products, fluid power components and systems, specialty flow control solutions, and other industrial supplies, operating in North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. In addition, the company provides engineering, design, and systems integration for industrial, fluid power, and flow control applications, as well as customized mechanical, fabricated rubber, fluid power, and flow control shop services. The company has two reportable segments: service center based distribution; and fluid power and flow control.

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A

BJ's Restaurants Inc.

BJ's Restaurants operates in the casual dining segment of the restaurant industry. The company's restaurants feature a number of menu offerings including: slow roasted entrees, such as, prime rib; EnLIGHTened Entrees? such as its Cherry Chipotle Glazed Salmon; its deep-dish pizza; the Pizookie? dessert; and its BJ's proprietary craft beers. The company owns and operates restaurants located in various states, and its proprietary craft beer is produced at various locations, its Temple, TX brewpub locations and by independent third party brewers using its proprietary recipes. The company also produces its proprietary non-alcoholic craft sodas including root beer, ginger beer, cream, orange and black cherry soda.

Brinker International Inc.

Brinker International is engaged in owning, developing, operating and franchising the Chili's? Grill & Bar (Chili's) and Maggiano's Little Italy? (Maggiano's) restaurant brands. Chili's operates in the bar and grill category of casual dining. Chili's menu includes burgers, fajitas, baby back ribs and margaritas. Chili's To Go menu is available online, by calling the restaurant, or through its mobile app. Maggiano's is a casual restaurant brand providing Italian-American cuisine. Dishes are served in both a la carte and family style. The company provides a range of lunch and dinner options, complimented by a wine list and cocktails.

CAVA GROUP INC

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

The Cheesecake Factory operates casual dining restaurants. The company operates Company-owned restaurants under: The Cheesecake Factory?, which provides menu including appetizers, pizza, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, small plates, pastas, salads, sandwiches and omelettes, and gluten-free items; Grand Lux Cafe?, which provides American dishes and international favorites, including appetizers, pasta, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, salads, and desserts; and RockSugar Southeast Asian Kitchen?, which showcases the cuisines of Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and India. The company also produces desserts for its restaurants, international licensees and third-party bakery customers.

Community Health Systems Inc.

Community Health Systems is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates general acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. The company provides healthcare services through the hospitals that it owns and operates and affiliated businesses in non-urban and selected urban markets. Services provided through the company's hospitals and affiliated businesses include general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery, critical care, internal medicine, obstetrics, diagnostic, psychiatric and rehabilitation services. The company also provides additional outpatient services at urgent care centers, occupational medicine clinics, imaging centers, cancer centers and ambulatory surgery centers.

Darden Restaurants Inc.

Darden Restaurants is a restaurant company. The company owns and operates restaurants through subsidiaries in the U.S. and Canada under the Olive Garden?, LongHorn Steakhouse?, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen?, Yard House?, The Capital Grille?, Seasons 52?, Bahama Breeze?, and Eddie V's Prime Seafood? trademarks. The company has four reportable segments: Olive Garden; LongHorn Steakhouse; Fine Dining (which includes The Capital Grille and Eddie V's); and Other Business (which includes Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Yard House, Seasons 52, Bahama Breeze and results from its franchise operations).

El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc

El Pollo Loco Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, El Pollo Loco, Inc., the company develops, franchises, licenses and operates quick-service restaurants under the name El Pollo Loco ?. The restaurants, which are located principally in California but also in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Utah and Louisiana, engaged in flame-grilled chicken in a variety of contemporary Mexican-influenced entrees, including chicken burritos, chicken quesadillas, chicken tortilla soup, variations on its Pollo Bowl? and Pollo Salads. The company serves individual and family-sized chicken meals, a variety of Mexican-inspired entrees, and sides, and, on a limited-time basis, additional proteins like shrimp.

Fat Brands

FAT Brands is a multi-brand restaurant franchising company that develops, markets, and acquires fast casual restaurant concepts. The company's restaurant brands include: Fatburger, which serves a variety of customizable Fatburgers, Turkeyburgers, Chicken Sandwiches, Impossible? Burgers, and Veggieburgers, among other; Buffalo's Cafe, which provides chicken wings and homemade wing sauces, burgers, and wraps, among other; Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouse, which provide guests a buffet and an array of steak, chicken and seafood entrees; Hurricane Grill & Wings, which provides chicken wings, sauces, burgers, and bowls, among other; and Yalla Mediterranean, which focuses on Mediterranean cuisine.

Gibraltar Industries Inc.

Gibraltar Industries is a manufacturer and distributor of building products for residential, industrial, infrastructure, renewable energy and conservation markets. The company has three segments: Residential Products, which services the residential repair and remodeling and the housing construction markets; Industrial and Infrastructure Products, which serves a variety of end markets such as industrial and commercial construction, highway and bridge construction, automotive, airports and energy and power generation; and Renewable Energy and Conservation, which is primarily a designer and manufacturer of solar mounting systems and greenhouse structures.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Lawson Products Inc.

Lawson Products is a distributor of products and services to the industrial, commercial, institutional, and governmental maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) marketplace. The company has two segments: the Lawson segment, which distributes MRO products through a network of sales representatives providing vendor managed inventory service throughout the United States and Canada; and the Bolt segment, which distributes MRO products through its branches located in Western Canada. The company's product category includes: fluid power, cutting tools and abrasives, specialty chemicals, electrical, aftermarket automotive supplies, safety, welding and metal repair, and other.

Shake Shack Inc. Class A

Shake Shack is a roadside burger stand serving an American menu of burgers, hot dogs, crispy chicken, frozen custard, crinkle cut fries, shakes, beer, wine and others. The company operates and licenses Shake Shack restaurants. The company's menu include: Burgers & Chicken, which includes the SmokeShack?, 'Shroom Burger? (Co.'s vegetarian burger), Shack Stack? and Hamburger, as well as Chick'n Shack?; Crinkle Cut Fries, which are made from Yukon potatoes; Hot Dogs, which includes beef hot dogs and chicken dogs; Frozen Custard, which is made from vanilla and chocolate recipes and milk; Beer, Wine and Beverages, which provides local craft beers; and Dogs Are Welcome Too, which provides dog biscuits.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Texas Roadhouse Inc.

Texas Roadhouse is a restaurant company operating predominately in the casual dining segment. The company operates Texas Roadhouse restaurants and Bubba's 33 restaurants. In addition, the company operates restaurants outside of the casual dining segment. The Texas Roadhouse restaurants provide an assortment of steaks hand-cut on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. In addition to steaks, the company also provides its guests a selection of ribs, seafood, chicken, pork chops, pulled pork and vegetable plates, hamburgers, salads and sandwiches. Bubba's 33 is a sports restaurant. The company's menu features burgers, pizza and wings as well as a variety of appetizers, sandwiches and dinner entrees.

Universal Health Services Inc. Class B

Universal Health Services owns and operates, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioral health care facilities. The company owns and/or operates inpatient facilities and outpatient and other facilities located in several states including, Washington, D.C., the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Services provided by the company's hospitals include general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. The company's reportable operating segments consist of acute care hospital services and behavioral health care services.

W.W. Grainger Inc.

W.W. Grainger is a distributor of maintenance, repair and operating (MRO) products and services in North America, Japan and Europe. The company's MRO product offering is grouped under material-handling equipment, safety and security supplies, lighting and electrical products, power and hand tools, pumps and plumbing supplies, cleaning and maintenance supplies and metalworking tools categories. The company's segments are the United States, which provides MRO products and services through its eCommerce platform, catalogs, branches and sales and service representatives; and Canada, which serves Canadian customers through its distribution center and branch network as well as sales and service representatives.

Watsco Inc.

Watsco is a distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies in North America. The products the company distributes consist of: equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, gas, electric, and oil furnaces, commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems, and other equipment; parts, including replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; supplies, including thermostats, insulation material, refrigerants, ductwork, grills, registers, sheet metal, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tape, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies; and plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies.

WESCO International Inc.

WESCO International is a distributor of products and provider of supply chain management and logistics services used primarily in industrial, construction, utility and commercial, institutional and government markets. The company is a provider of electrical, industrial, and communications maintenance, repair and operating and original equipment manufacturers products, construction materials, and supply chain management and logistics services. The company's primary product categories include general supplies, wire, cable and conduit, communications and security, electrical distribution and controls, lighting and sustainability, and automation, controls and motors.

Wingstop Inc.

Wingstop is a franchisor and operator of restaurants that focuses on cooked-to-order, hand-sauced and tossed chicken wings. The company provides its guests several flavors on its bone-in and boneless chicken wings and tenders paired with seasoned fries, Ranch, and Bleu Cheese dips. The company's proprietary flavors, which range from extremely hot to mild includes Atomic, Mango Habanero, Cajun, Original Hot, Spicy Korean Q, Louisiana Rub, Mild, Hickory Smoked BBQ, Lemon Pepper, Garlic Parmesan, and Hawaiian. To complement its wings, the company serves seasoned fries, as well as carrots and celery and Ranch and Bleu Cheese Dips made with buttermilk.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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