Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 219.18 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 at multi-month highs

Both the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 are trading at highs not seen since early October 2018 - a positive indication in itself. Additionally, key risk-on areas we highlighted in last week's Compass (small-caps, Financials/Banks, and Transports) have outperformed off the recent lows - a welcomed sight for risk sentiment. Our overall positive outlook remains intact, and below we highlight several observations which lead us to this conclusion.

• 3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y no longer inverted. For now the 3M/10Y and 1Y/10Y yield curve inversions appear to have been a one-week phenomena, and we see the fact that both are no longer inverted as an incrementally positive development.

• Equal-weighted S&P 500. The equal-weighted S&P 500 is breaking to new highs following a 1.5 month consolidation - a signal that the market may be poised for a renewed upside move... see chart below, left.

• Small vs. large-caps. The small vs. large-cap ratio appears to be bottoming near logical support, a positive for overall risk sentiment... see chart below, right.

• Key levels for Energy. We would be buyers of energy equities on a decisive breakout topside resistance for the XOP and IEO... see page 3.

• Inverse head-and-shoulders bottoms developing. We take a look at key risk-on areas of the market that are forming inverse head-and shoulders bottoms. Breakouts topside the respective necklines would give us significantly more confidence and would likely support an outright bullish outlook... see page 4.

• Opportunities within Financials. We highlight four attractive bottom-fishing opportunities within the Financials Sector: MS, TROW, SEIC, and IVZ... see page 5.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Transportation and Technology: TR-10 Railroads, Large-Cap, TR-11 Railroads, Small-Cap, and TE-48 Software, Internet... see pages 11-18.
Underlyings
Akamai Technologies Inc.

Akamai Technologies provides solutions for securing, delivering and optimizing content and business applications over the Internet. The company provides online solutions for the security, delivery and acceleration of websites and applications. The company's solutions include: cloud security solutions; enterprise security solutions; web and mobile performance solutions; media delivery solutions; carrier solutions; and services and support solutions, which provides an array of service and support offerings that are designed to assist its customers with integrating, configuring, optimizing and managing its main offerings.

Canadian National Railway Company

Canadian National Railway, together with its wholly-owned subsidiaries, is engaged in the rail and related transportation business. Co.'s network of approximately 20,000 route miles of track spans Canada and mid-America, from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to the Gulf of Mexico. Co.'s network and connections to all Class I railroads provide access to all three North American Free Trade Agreement nations. Co. handles and carries cargo, serving exporters, importers, retailers, farmers and manufacturers. Co. is engaged in the movement of a portfolio of goods, including petroleum and chemicals, grain and fertilizers, coal, metals and minerals, forest products, intermodal and automotive.

CDK Global Inc.

CDK Global is a provider of subscription-based software and technology solutions for automotive retailers. The company is organized into two main operating groups, which are also reportable segments: CDK North America, which provides technology-based solutions, including its Dealer Management System (DMS) products and data management and business intelligence solutions; and CDK International, which provides automotive retailers with primary DMS solutions and provides automotive retailers and original equipment manufacturers a variety of services, custom programming, consulting, implementation and training solutions, as well as customer support solutions outside of the United States and Canada.

CSX Corporation

CSX provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company's principal operating subsidiary, CSX Transportation, Inc., provides a link to the transportation supply chain through its rail network, which serves centers in states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. The company's CSX Intermodal Terminals, Inc. subsidiary owns and operates a system of intermodal terminals, primarily in the eastern United States and also performs drayage services (the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments). The company's Total Distribution Services, Inc. subsidiary serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations.

Genesee & Wyoming Inc. Class A

Genesee & Wyoming owns or leases freight railroads worldwide. The company has three segments: North American Operations, which includes several regions that serve U.S. states and Canadian provinces and includes short line and regional freight railroads; Australian Operations, which serves New South Wales, the Northern Territory and South Australia and operates the Tarcoola-to-Darwin rail line; and U.K./European Operations, which is led by Freightliner Group Limited, a rail maritime intermodal operator and rail freight provider, as well as regional rail services in Continental Europe.

Invesco Ltd.

Kansas City Southern

Kansas City Southern is a transportation holding company with domestic and international rail operations in North America. The company's subsidiary, The Kansas City Southern Railway Company, is a United States Class I railroad that serves a several region in the midwest and southeast regions of United States and has north/south rail route between Kansas City, MO and several main ports along the Gulf of Mexico in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas. The company's subsidiary, Kansas City Southern de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. operates a main commercial corridor of the Mexican railroad system and has as its main route a direct rail passageway between Mexico City and Laredo, TX.

Mimecast Limited

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company advises, and originates, trades, manages and distributes capital for, governments, institutions and individuals. The company's segments are: Institutional Securities, which provides investment banking, sales and trading, lending and other services; Wealth Management, which provides brokerage and investment advisory services, financial and wealth planning services, stock plan administration services, annuity and insurance products, residential real estate loans and other lending products, banking, and retirement plan services; and Investment Management, which provides investment strategies and products.

Norfolk Southern Corporation

Norfolk Southern is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. The company also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. The company provides intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. The company's railroad operates in several states and the District of Columbia. The company's system reaches manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers, transload facilities, and other businesses in its service area.

Open Text Corporation

Open Text is a provider of a suite of software products and services that assist organizations in finding, utilizing, and sharing business information from any device. In addition, Co. provides solutions that facilitate the exchange of information and transactions between supply chain participants, such as manufacturers, retailers, distributors and financial institutions. Co. provides software through on-premise solutions, cloud solutions or a combination of both on-premise and cloud solutions. Co.'s enterprise information management offerings include: content services, business process management, customer experience management, discovery, business network, and analytics.

SEI Investments Company

SEI Investments is holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of investment processing, investment management and investment operations solutions. The company's segments are: private banks, which provides outsourced investment processing and investment management platforms; investment advisors, which provides investment management and investment processing platforms; institutional investors, which provides investment management and administrative outsourcing platforms; investment managers, which provides investment operations outsourcing solutions; and investments in new businesses, which focuses on providing investment management solutions to families residing in the U.S.

T. Rowe Price Group

T. Rowe Price Group is a financial services holding company that provides global investment management services. The company provide a range of United States mutual funds, subadvised funds, separately managed accounts, and other T. Rowe Price products. The company also provides certain investment advisory clients with related administrative services, including distribution, mutual fund transfer agent, accounting, and shareholder services; participant recordkeeping and transfer agent services for defined contribution retirement plans; brokerage; and trust services. The company also provide non-discretionary advisory planning services to fund shareholders and potential investors.

Union Pacific Corporation

Union Pacific, through its operating subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, is a Class I railroad operating in the United States. The company's network included route miles, linking Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and eastern United States. gateways and providing several corridors to key Mexican gateways. The company serves the western two-thirds of the country and maintains coordinated schedules with other rail carriers for the handling of freight to and from the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, the Southwest, Canada, and Mexico. The company's business mix includes agricultural products, energy, industrial, and premium.

Wix.com Ltd.

Wix.com develops and markets an internet service that allows users to create web content. Co. is a global web development platform enabling businesses and organizations to take their businesses, brands and workflow online. Co.'s core product is the Wix Editor, a drag-and-drop visual development and website editing environment complete with high quality templates, graphics, image galleries and fonts. With Co.'s platform, Wix registered users can create and manage a professional quality digital presence tailored to their business and brands' specific look and feel that is accessible across all major browsers and the most widely used desktop, tablet and mobile devices.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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