Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 232.00 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 and S&P 600 testing resistance

We continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process. At the same time we acknowledge the market remains at short-term overbought extremes and is contending with resistance. Resistance levels we are monitoring include 2,810-2,817 on the S&P 500 and the 200-day moving average on the S&P 600 Small Cap index... see charts below. We would welcome some consolidation or a mild pullback which would be a healthy correction of the current extended market conditions.

• Relative Strength Rankings (RSR). We are looking to upgrade Materials and downgrade Consumer Staples, but we would prefer to do so on a pullback given the overbought nature of the market... see pages 2-3.

• Price trends making bullish inflections in key risk-on market areas. Supporting our view of an ongoing bottoming process, price trends are developing positively for foreign equities (ACWX), China/EM (FXI, EEM), semiconductors (SOXX), biotech (IBB), homebuilders (XHB), major autos (CARZ), and banks (KBE, KRE, XLF)... see pages 4-5.

• Cyclicals, small-caps, and growth remain leadership. Outperformance from cyclicals over staples and small- over large-caps is a recipe for a healthy market... see page 6.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups within Manufacturing and Technology: MF-16 Construction Equipment, MF-30 Industrial Rental Equipment, TE-09 Data Storage Solutions & Devices, Small-Cap, and TE-55 Software, Financial Mgmt. Solutions... see pages 12-24.
Underlyings
Alamo Group Inc.

Alamo Group is engaged in the design and manufacture of agricultural equipment and infrastructure maintenance equipment for governmental and industrial use. The company's products include tractor-mounted mowing and other vegetation maintenance equipment, street sweepers, excavators, vacuum trucks, snow removal equipment, pothole patchers, zero turn radius mowers, agricultural implements and related aftermarket parts. The company sells its products primarily through a network of independent dealers and distributors to governmental end-users, related independent contractors, as well as to the agricultural and commercial turf markets. The company has three reportable segments: Industrial, Agricultural and European.

CAE Inc.

CAE designs, manufactures and supplies simulation equipment, provide training, and develops integrated training solutions for defence and security markets, commercial airlines, business aircraft operators, helicopter operators, aircraft manufacturers and for healthcare education and service providers. Co.'s flight simulators replicate aircraft performance in normal and abnormal operations as well as a set of environmental conditions utilizing visual systems that contain a database of airports, other landing areas, flying environments, mission-specific environments, and motion and sound cues. Co. provides a range of flight training devices based on the same software used on its simulators.

Caterpillar Inc.

Caterpillar is a manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines and diesel-electric locomotives. The company segments include: Construction Industries, which supports customers using machinery in infrastructure, forestry and building construction; Resource Industries, which supports customers using machinery in mining, heavy construction, quarry and aggregates, waste and material handling applications; Energy and Transportation, which supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail and industrial applications, including Cat? machines; and Financial Products, which provides financing and related services.

Coupa Software Inc.

Coupa Software is a provider of business spend management (BSM) solutions. The company provides a cloud-based BSM platform that delivers a range of capabilities that would typically require the purchase and use of multiple disparate point applications. The company's main platform consists of procurement, invoicing, expense management and payments modules that form the transactional engine for managing a company's business spend. In addition, the company's platform provides supporting modules to help companies further manage their spend, including strategic sourcing, spend analysis, contract management, supplier management, and contingent workforce management.

H&E Equipment Services Inc.

H&E Equipment Services is an equipment services company focused on heavy construction and industrial equipment. The company rents, sells and provides parts and services support for four main categories of equipment: hi-lift or aerial work platform equipment; cranes; earthmoving equipment; and industrial lift trucks. The company engages in five principal business activities in these equipment categories which include equipment rentals; new equipment sales; used equipment sales; parts sales; and repair and maintenance services. In addition to its principal business activities, the company provides ancillary equipment support activities including transportation, hauling, parts shipping and loss damage waivers.

Herc Holdings Inc.

Herc Holdings is an equipment rental supplier. The company conducts its operations through subsidiaries, including Herc Rentals Inc. Operations are conducted under the Herc Rentals brand in the U.S. and Canada and under the Hertz Equipment Rental brand in other international locations. The company sells used equipment and contractor supplies such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment and safety supplies; provides repair, maintenance and equipment management services and safety training to certain of its customers; provides equipment re-rental services and provides on-site support to its customers; and provides ancillary services such as equipment transport, cleaning, refueling and labor.

Hyster-Yale Materials Handling Inc. Class A

Hyster-Yale Materials Handling designs, engineers, manufactures, sells and services a line of lift trucks, attachments and aftermarket parts marketed primarily under the Hyster? and Yale? brand names, to independent Hyster? and Yale? retail dealerships. The company's subsidiary, Zhejiang Maximal Forklift Co., Ltd., is a manufacturer of utility and standard lift trucks and specialized material handling equipment involved in the design, manufacture, service and distribution of Class 1 electric and Class 5 internal combustion engine counterbalance utility and standard platforms, and Class 2 and Class 3 electric warehouse products for both the local China and global markets under the Maximal brand.

Intevac Inc.

Intevac is a provider of vacuum deposition equipment for a variety of thin-film applications, and a provider of digital night-vision technologies and products to the defense industry. The company's business consists of two reportable segments: Thin-film Equipment, in which the company is engaged in the design and development of thin-film processing systems, where its platforms are designed for high-volume manufacturing of substrates with precise thin-film properties, such as the hard disk drive media, display cover panel, and solar photovoltaic markets it serves; and Photonics, in which the company is a developer of high-sensitivity digital sensors, cameras and systems that primarily serve the defense industry.

Intuit Inc.

Intuit helps consumers, small businesses, and the self-employed prosper by delivering financial management and compliance products and services. The company also provides tax products to accounting personnels, who are main partners that help the company serves small business customers. The company organizes its businesses into three reportable segments: Small Business and Self-Employed, which provides QuickBooks financial management solutions to solve financial and compliance problems; Consumer, which includes TurboTax products and services to prepare and file income tax returns; and Strategic Partner, which includes professional tax offerings and serve professional accountants in United States and Canada.

Manitowoc Company Inc.

Manitowoc is a provider of engineered lifting solutions. The company designs, manufactures and distributes a line of crawler-mounted lattice-boom cranes, which it sells under the Manitowoc brand name. The company also designs and manufactures top-slewing and self-erecting tower cranes, which it sells under the Potain brand name. The company designs and manufactures mobile telescopic cranes, which it sells under the Grove, Shuttlelift and National Crane brand names. The company provides crane product parts and services and crane rebuilding, remanufacturing and training services, which are delivered under the Manitowoc Crane Care brand name. The company's segments are: Americas, Europe and Africa, and Middle East and Asia Pacific.

Model N Inc

Model N is a provider of cloud revenue management solutions for life sciences and technology companies. The company provides solutions that span the organizational and operational boundaries of functions such as sales, marketing, and finance and serve as a system of record for key revenue management processes including pricing, quoting, contracts, rebates, incentives, channel management, reporting and regulatory compliance. The company's solutions are purpose-built for the life sciences and technology industries and are designed to work with enterprise resource planning and customer relationship management applications that do not typically provide revenue management capabilities.

NACCO Industries Inc. Cl A

NACCO Industries is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries the company operates in the mining and natural resources industries. The Coal Mining segment operates surface coal mines under long-term contracts with power generation companies and activated carbon producers pursuant to a service-based business model. The North American Mining segment provides contract mining and other services for producers of aggregates, lithium and other minerals. This segment provides contract mining services for independently owned mines and quarries. NAMining operates primarily at limestone quarries in Florida. The minerals management segment promotes the development of the company's oil, gas and coal reserves.

Novanta Inc

Novanta is a holding company with three segments: Photonics, which designs, manufactures and markets photonics-based solutions, including laser scanning and laser beam delivery, CO2 laser, continuous wave and ultrafast laser, and optical light engine products; Vision, which designs, produces and markets medical grade technologies, including medical insufflators, pumps and related disposables, surgical displays and operating room integration technologies, and optical data collection and machine vision technologies; and Precision Motion, which designs, produces and markets optical encoders, precision motor and motion control technology, air bearing spindles and precision machined components.

Par Technology Corp.

PAR Technology, through its subsidiaries, operates in the following segments: Restaurant/Retail, which provides point-of-sale (POS) hardware, software and technical solutions to the restaurant and retail industries, including cloud-based, software-as-a-service Brink POS and on-premise POS PixelPoint solutions, POS hardware platforms, and installation, technical, and maintenance support services; and Government, which provides intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions and mission systems support to the U.S. Department of Defense and other Federal agencies, including systems engineering and evaluation, space and satellite support services, and information systems support.

Rush Enterprises Inc. Class A

Rush Enterprises is a retailer of commercial vehicles and related services. The Truck Segment includes the company's operation of network of commercial vehicle dealerships under the name Rush Truck Centers. Rush Truck Centers primarily sell commercial vehicles manufactured by Peterbilt, International, Hino, Ford, Isuzu, Mitsubishi Fuso, IC Bus or Blue Bird. Through its network of Rush Truck Centers, the company provides one-stop service for the needs of its commercial vehicle customers, including retail sales of new and used commercial vehicles, aftermarket parts sales, service and repair facilities, financing, leasing and rental, and insurance products.

SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc.

SS&C Technologies Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of software products and software-enabled services that allow financial services providers to automate business processes and manage their information processing requirements. The company provides its solutions to clients principally within the institutional asset and wealth management, alternative investment management, financial advisory and financial institutions vertical markets. In addition, the company's clients include commercial lenders, real estate investment trusts, corporate treasury groups, insurance and pension funds, municipal finance groups and real estate property managers.

Teradata Corporation

Teradata is a hybrid cloud analytics software provider. The company's solution, Teradata Vantage?, is its data warehouse and analytics platform that allows companies to utilize their data across an enterprise, whether on premises, in public or private clouds, or in a hybrid environment. The company's solutions are comprised of software, hardware, and related business consulting and support services. The company's business consulting services include a range of offerings, including consulting to help organizations establish an analytic vision, identify and operationalize analytical opportunities, enable an analytical ecosystem architecture, and ensure their analytical infrastructure delivers value.

Terex Corporation

Terex is a global manufacturer of aerial work platforms, materials processing machinery and cranes. The company has two segments: Aerial Work Platforms, which designs, manufactures, services and markets aerial work platform equipment, utility equipment, telehandlers and light towers, including portable material lifts, self-propelled articulating and telescopic booms, scissor lifts, and trailer-mounted light towers as well as, their related components and replacement parts; and Material Processing, which designs, manufactures and markets materials processing and other equipment, including crushers, washing systems, apron feeders, conveyors, and their related components and replacement parts.

United Rentals Inc.

United Rentals is an equipment rental company that operates throughout the United States and Canada, and Europe. The company's general rentals segment includes the rental of construction, aerial and industrial equipment, general tools and light equipment, and related services and activities. This segment's customers include construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities and homeowners. The company's trench, power and fluid solutions segment includes the rental of construction products and related services. This segment consist of: Trench Safety region, Power and Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning region; and Fluid Solutions and Fluid Solutions Europe regions.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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