Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 234.38 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Examining Prior Extended Periods

Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots (e.g., Materials, Energy, small-caps, value), the silver lining continues to be that the latter group is not breaking down on an absolute (price) basis. Due to this fact along with several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish. Continue to buy the dips.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Cap-weighted growth Sectors Technology, Services, Discretionary, and Communications continue to dominate leadership. Actionable ideas: VEEV, AVLR, DG, and J... see pages 2-3.

• Examining Prior Extended Periods. The S&P 500 is about 10% above its 200-day MA, something that has occurred ten other times over the past 30 years. Of these ten prior instances, only three resulted in a pullback to the 200-day MA within six months (2011, 2012, and 2018), and in only one of those instances (2011) did the S&P 500 actually break below its 200-day MA. In the other seven instances it often took a full year before the S&P 500 touched its 200-day MA again -- and when it did happen, it was at higher prices (often considerably higher). The key point we take away from this chart is that, more often than not, getting this far extended above the 200-day MA marks the beginning of a major move higher, not the end... see chart below.

• Commodities, US Dollar, 10-Year Yield, High Yield Spreads. Several commodities that we watch in order to get a gauge on the health of the economy (e.g., WTI crude, copper, and lumber) are sending constructive signals -- none more so than lumber. At the same time, gold prices are hitting highs not seen since 2013. Despite new highs for gold, the gold miner ETFs (GDX, GDXJ) are still below key resistance levels. Additionally, the 10-year yield is stabilizing and high yield spreads are not a concern... see pages 4-7.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Technology: HC-29 Hospitals, HC-42 Pet Health, TE-42 Software, Enterprise Applications, Large-Cap, and TE-43 Software, Enterprise Applications, Small-Cap... see pages 15-30.
Underlyings
Alarm.com Holdings Inc.

Alarm.com is a platform for the intelligently connected property. The company provides a suite of cloud-based solutions for smart residential and commercial properties. The company's service provider partners can deploy its interactive security, video monitoring, intelligent automation and energy management solutions as stand-alone offerings or as combined solutions to address the needs of a range of customers. The company's subscribers can connect to their property through the company's family of mobile apps, websites, and engagement platforms like voice control through Amazon Echo and Google Home, wearable devices like the Apple Watch and TV platforms such as Apple TV and Amazon Fire TV.

Alvarion Ltd.

American Software Inc. Cl A

American Software is engaged in the development, marketing, and support activities of a range of computer business application software products. The company's three segments are: Supply Chain Management, which provides collaborative supply chain solutions to streamline and optimize the production, distribution and management of products between trading partners, as well as wholly-owned subsidiaries of Logility, Inc.; Information Technology Consulting, which consists of The Proven Method, Inc., an IT staffing and consulting services firm; and Other, which includes purchasing and materials management, customer order processing, financial, and e-commerce and manufacturing solutions.

Anaplan

Anaplan provides a cloud-based connected planning platform that helps connect organizations and people to make decisions. The company delivers its application over the Internet as a subscription service using a software-as-a-service model. The company also provides services related to implementing and supporting its application.

AppFolio Inc Class A

AppFolio provides industry-specific, cloud-based business software solutions, services and data analytics. The company's solutions include: AppFolio Property Manager, a cloud-based software solution that provides tools and services designed to streamline their property management businesses; AppFolio Investment Management, a cloud-based software solution for real estate investment managers of various sizes providing tools and services designed to streamline their real estate investment management businesses; and MyCase, a cloud-based software solution for the legal market that provides small law firms tools and services designed to streamline their legal practice and manage their caseload.

Atlassian Corp. Plc Class A

Community Health Systems Inc.

Community Health Systems is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates general acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. The company provides healthcare services through the hospitals that it owns and operates and affiliated businesses in non-urban and selected urban markets. Services provided through the company's hospitals and affiliated businesses include general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery, critical care, internal medicine, obstetrics, diagnostic, psychiatric and rehabilitation services. The company also provides additional outpatient services at urgent care centers, occupational medicine clinics, imaging centers, cancer centers and ambulatory surgery centers.

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.

Domo Incorporated

Domo provides a platform that digitally connects people, data and systems in an organization, giving them access to real-time data and insights and allowing them to manage their business from their smartphones. The company's platform provides access to data through a set of connection options, including connectors. The company's data warehouse, Adrenaline, stores data from across the business. Fusion is the company's data transformation engine that sorts customer data. The company's Explorer analytics suite allows users to analyze, display, share and interact with data through visualizations. With the Domo Appstore, APIs and developer tool kits, the company enables an ecosystem of partners to build applications on the platform.

Freshpet Inc

Freshpet manufactures and markets refrigerated meals and treats for dogs and cats. The company's products are distributed throughout the U.S. and other international markets into retail classes including Grocery and Mass, and online, and Pet specialty and Natural retail. The company's products consist of dog food, cat food and dog and cat treats, which are made according to its nutritional philosophy of fresh, meat-based nutrition and minimal processing. The company's recipes include meat and combinations of vegetables, leafy greens and anti-oxidant rich fruits, without the use of preservatives, additives or artificial ingredients. The company's products are available in multiple forms, including bagged meals and tubs.

GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE INC

Guidewire Software provides a technology platform, composed of software, services, and a partner ecosystem, for the property and casualty insurance industry. Guidewire InsurancePlatform? consists of cloud and on-premise applications to support core operations, data management and analytics, and digital engagement and is connected to various data sources and third party applications. The company's operational platforms include: Guidewire InsuranceSuite, which comprises of PolicyCenter, BillingCenter, and ClaimCenter applications; and Guidewire InsuranceNow, which provides policy, billing and claims management functionality to insurers that prefer to subscribe to a cloud-based, all-in-one solution.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Heska Corporation

Heska sells veterinary and animal health diagnostic and specialty products. The company's segments are: Core Companion Animal, which includes, primarily for canine and feline use, Point of Care laboratory instruments and consumables, digital imaging diagnostic instruments, software and services, local and cloud-based data services, allergy testing and immunotherapy, and single use offerings such as in-clinic diagnostic tests and heartworm preventive products; and Other Vaccines and Pharmaceuticals, which includes private label vaccine and pharmaceutical production, primarily for cattle but also for other species including equine, porcine, avian, feline and canine.

International Business Machines Corporation

International Business Machines provides integrated solutions and products that utilize data, information technology, capability in industries and business processes. The company has five segments: Cloud and Cognitive Software, which provides a range of software offerings; Global Business Services, which provides consulting, systems integration, application management and business process outsourcing services; Global Technology Services, which provides project services, managed and outsourcing services, cloud-delivered services, and technical and IT support services; Systems, which provides technology and service; and Global Financing, which provides client financing, among others.

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.

Jacobs Engineering Group provides services including consulting, technical, scientific and project delivery for the government and private sector. The company's lines of business are: Critical Mission Solutions, which provides cybersecurity, data analytics, software application development, enterprise and mission information technology, systems integration and other technical consulting solutions to government agencies as well as aerospace, automotive and telecom customers; and People and Places Solutions, which provides end-to-end solutions for its clients' projects, whether connected mobility, water, smart cities, manufacturing or the environment.

Magic Software Enterprises Ltd.

Magic Software Enterprises is a provider of: proprietary application development and business process integration platforms; selected packaged vertical software solutions; as well as a vendor of software services and Internet Technology outsourcing software services. Co.'s software technology is used by customers to develop, deploy and integrate on-premise, mobile and cloud-based business applications. Co. provides a portfolio of services in the areas of infrastructure design and delivery, application development, technology consulting planning and implementation services, support services, cloud computing for deployment of applications and API's and supplemental outsourcing services.

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF

Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.

Pegasystems Inc.

Pegasystems develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software applications that help organizations transform the way they engage with their customers and process work across their enterprise. The company also licenses its low-code Pega Platform? for application development to clients to build and extend their own business applications. Pega Infinity? helps connect enterprises to their customers in real-time across channels, streamline business operations, and adapt to meet changing requirements. The company's applications and platform intersect with and encompass several software markets, including: customer engagement, digital process automation, and robotic process automation.

PetIQ Inc. Class A

PetIQ is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a pet medication and wellness company providing veterinary products and services. The company's Rx pet medications include heartworm preventatives, arthritis, thyroid, diabetes and pain treatments, antibiotics and other specialty medications, all of which require a prescription from a veterinarian. The OTC medications the company sells are primarily comprised of flea and tick control products, which are available in multiple forms that consumers choose between, such as spot on (topical) treatments, chewables, and collars. The company's health and wellness products include treats and other pet products such as dental treats and nutritional supplements.

QAD Class A

QAD is a provider of cloud-based enterprise software solutions for manufacturing companies across the automotive, life sciences, consumer products, food and beverage, technology and industrial products industries. The company's solutions, called QAD Enterprise Applications, enable measurement and control of primary business processes that support operational requirements, including financials, manufacturing, demand and supply chain planning, customer management, business intelligence and business process management. The company also provides services including consulting, deployment, training, technical, development and integration to facilitate adoption of its cloud Enterprise Applications solution.

Select Medical Holdings Corporation

Select Medical Holdings is managed through four business segments: critical illness recovery hospital, which consists of hospitals designed to serve the needs of patients recovering from critical illnesses; rehabilitation hospital, which consists of hospitals designed to serve patients that require intensive physical rehabilitation care; outpatient rehabilitation, which consists of clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation services; and the company's subsidiary, Concentra Inc. segment, which consists of occupational health centers that provide workers' compensation injury care, physical therapy, and consumer health services and onsite clinics.

ServiceNow Inc.

ServiceNow provides enterprise cloud computing services that define, structure, manage and automate digital workflows for global enterprises. The company markets its services to enterprises in a variety of industries, including consumer products, education, financial services, government, health care, information technology (IT) services and technology. The company sells its subscription services through direct sales and, to a lesser extent, through indirect channel sales. The company also provides a portfolio of personnel and other services, both directly and through its network of partners. The company's products include IT service management, IT operations management, IT business management, and security operations.

SHOPIFY INC.

Shopify provides a cloud-based commerce platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. Merchants use its software to run their business across all of their sales channels, including web, tablet and mobile storefronts, social media storefronts, and brick-and-mortar and pop-up shops. Co. provides a platform for merchants to create an omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchant's brand and grow its business. Co.'s platform provides merchants with a single view of their business and customers across all of their sales channels and enables them to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, build customer relationships and leverage analytics and reporting.

Surgery Partners Inc.

Surgery Partners is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a healthcare services company. The company operates in three reporting segments : Surgical Facility Services, which consists of the operation of ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) and surgical hospitals; Ancillary Services, which consists of a diagnostic laboratory and multi-specialty physician practices; and Optical Services, which consists of an optical laboratory and an optical products group purchasing organization. As of Dec 31 2017, the company owned or operated primarily in partnership with physicians, a portfolio of 124 surgical facilities comprised of 106 ASCs and 18 surgical hospitals across 32 states.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Upland Software Inc.

Upland Software provides cloud-based enterprise work management software that enables organizations to plan, manage and execute projects and work. The company's cloud offerings include: Customer Experience Management Cloud, which enables organizations to manage the customer lifecycle from awareness to acquisition to advocacy across various channels; Enterprise Sales and Marketing Cloud, which enables sales and marketing organizations to improve sales activities, digital content production, automate key proposal and reference processes, and track key metrics; and Document Workflow Cloud, which enables enterprises to manage and automate document intensive business processes with data security.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF

Veeva Systems Inc Class A

Veeva Systems provides industry cloud solutions for the life sciences industry. Veeva Commercial Cloud is a suite of multichannel customer relationship management applications, a commercial data warehouse, territory allocation and alignment applications, master data management applications and customer reference and data and services. Veeva Vault is the company's suite of cloud-based, enterprise content management applications that address the content management requirements for the company's customers'commercial functions, including medical and sales and marketing, and key research and development functions, including clinical, regulatory, quality, and, when available, safety.

Zoetis Inc. Class A

Zoetis is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture and commercialization of animal health medicines, vaccines, and diagnostic products with a focus on both livestock and companion animals. The company operates in two segments: the United States and International. The company's main product categories are vaccines, anti-infectives, parasiticides, other pharmaceutical products, dermatology products, medicated feed additives, and animal health diagnostics. The company's other non-pharmaceutical product categories include nutritionals and agribusiness, as well as products and services including biodevices, genetic tests and precision livestock farming.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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