Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.32 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Transports & Manufacturing To Overweight

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) all managed to break above their respective resistance levels which we highlighted in last week's Compass, and both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 closed yesterday at all-time highs. Considering these new price highs, and ongoing market dynamics which remain largely positive, we expect higher prices ahead and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

· S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000. The S&P 500 broke above its symmetrical triangle pattern and prior resistance, which is now support to watch moving forward (currently 3880-3890). The Russell 2000 (IWM) similarly broke above its downtrend and we expect higher prices moving forward... see charts below.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading Transportation to overweight with RS breaking above key resistance on the cap-weighted Sector (IYT). Additionally, we are upgrading Manufacturing to overweight with RS breaking above resistance on the equal-weighted Sector (RGI)... see pages 2-3.

· Risk-On Signals: Breadth, Cyclicals vs. Staples Ratios. The recent shift from growth to value has led to significant breadth improvement for the broad market, with advance/decline lines on the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 hitting new highs last week. This is a risk-on signal as bull markets are strongest when there is broad participation. Additionally, both the cap- and equal-weighted cyclicals vs. staples ratios (XLY/XLP & RCD/RHS) remain in uptrends, yet another metric we view as being a risk-on signal... see page 4.

· What Could Go Wrong? We are watching the US dollar (DXY), Treasury yields, and relative strength for defensive Sectors closely. 92 on the DXY remains an important level for us; if the DXY is above 92 it would likely be a headwind for the broad market and commodity prices. Treasury yields have stabilized recently, with the 10-year staying below 1.61-1.63% and the 30-year staying below 2.4%; any resumption of the accelerated uptrend would cause problems for equities. Additionally, we are beginning to see some short-term RS improvement for Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE); sustained outperformance would be a risk-off signal for the broad equity market... see pages 5-6.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing and Transportation: MF-06 Small-Cap Aerospace Components/Products, MF-30 Industrial Rental Equipment, TR-02 Airlines, Regional/Low-Cost, and TR-08 Shipping Dry-Bulk... see pages 16-33.
Underlyings
Alaska Air Group Inc.

Alaska Air Group operates two airlines, Alaska Airlines, Inc. (Alaska) and Horizon Air Industries, Inc. (Horizon). The company's operation also includes McGee Air Services, an aviation services provider. The company has three segments: Mainline, which includes scheduled air transportation on Alaska's Boeing or Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the United States., and in parts of Canada, Mexico, and Costa Rica; Regional, which includes Horizon's and other third-party carriers' scheduled air transportation for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States under capacity purchase agreements (CPA); and Horizon, which includes the capacity sold to Alaska under CPA.

ALLEGIANT TRAVEL CO

Allegiant Travel is a travel company. The company's travel services and products are: scheduled service air transportation, which provides scheduled air transportation on flights mainly between cities and other destinations; ancillary air-related products and services, which provides unbundled air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation; third party products and services, which provides third party travel products such as hotel rooms and ground transportation for sale to its passengers; and fixed fee contract air transportation, which provides air transportation through fixed fee agreements and charter service on a year-round and ad-hoc basis.

Ardmore Shipping

Astronics Corporation

Astronics is a provider of technologies to the aerospace, defense and electronics industries. The company has two reportable segments, Aerospace and Test Systems. The company's Aerospace segment designs and manufactures products for the global aerospace industry. Product lines include lighting and safety systems, electrical power generation, distribution and motions systems, aircraft structures, avionics products, systems certification, and other products. The company's Test Systems segment designs, develops, manufactures and maintains automated test systems that support the aerospace, communications and weapons test systems as well as training and simulation devices for both commercial and military applications.

Atlas Corp.

Costamare Inc.

Costamare is an international owner of containerships. Co. is engaged in chartering vessels to many of the world's liner companies. As of Feb 23 2018, Co. has a fleet of 71 containerships with a total capacity in excess of 466,000 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs). Co.'s strategy is to time charter its containerships to a geographically diverse, financially strong and loyal group of liner companies. Co.'s containerships operate primarily under multi-year charters and therefore are not subject to the effect of seasonal variations in demand. Some of Co.'s customers are A.P. Moller-Maersk, MSC, Evergreen, Hapag Lloyd and COSCO.

Ducommun Inc.

Ducommun provides engineering and manufacturing services. The company has two primary business segments: Electronic Systems and Structural Systems. Electronic Systems designs, engineers and manufactures products used in technology-driven markets including aerospace, defense, industrial, medical, and other end-use markets. These product offerings range from prototype development to assemblies. Structural Systems designs, engineers and manufactures contoured aerospace structural components and assemblies and supplies composite and metal bonded structures and assemblies. These products are used on commercial aircraft, military fixed-wing aircraft and military and commercial rotary-wing aircraft.

Eagle Bulk Shipping

Eneti Inc

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.

Global Ship Lease Inc. Class A

Global Ship Lease is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the business of owning and chartering out containerships under fixed rate charters to container liner companies.

H&E Equipment Services Inc.

H&E Equipment Services is an equipment services company focused on heavy construction and industrial equipment. The company rents, sells and provides parts and services support for four main categories of equipment: hi-lift or aerial work platform equipment; cranes; earthmoving equipment; and industrial lift trucks. The company engages in five principal business activities in these equipment categories which include equipment rentals; new equipment sales; used equipment sales; parts sales; and repair and maintenance services. In addition to its principal business activities, the company provides ancillary equipment support activities including transportation, hauling, parts shipping and loss damage waivers.

Hawaiian Holdings Inc.

Hawaiian Holdings is a holding company. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hawaiian Airlines, Inc., the company is engaged in the scheduled air transportation of passengers and cargo amongst the Hawaiian Islands, between the Hawaiian Islands and certain cities in the United States, and between the Hawaiian Islands and the South Pacific, Australia, New Zealand and Asia. The company provides non-stop service to Hawai'i from various United States gateway cities and also provides daily flights between the Hawaiian Islands. In addition, the company operates various charter flights. The company's flight operations are based in Honolulu, HI. The company operates scheduled flights with various ad hoc charters.

HEICO Corporation Class A

Herc Holdings Inc.

Herc Holdings is an equipment rental supplier. The company conducts its operations through subsidiaries, including Herc Rentals Inc. Operations are conducted under the Herc Rentals brand in the U.S. and Canada and under the Hertz Equipment Rental brand in other international locations. The company sells used equipment and contractor supplies such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment and safety supplies; provides repair, maintenance and equipment management services and safety training to certain of its customers; provides equipment re-rental services and provides on-site support to its customers; and provides ancillary services such as equipment transport, cleaning, refueling and labor.

JetBlue Airways Corporation

JetBlue Airways provides air transportation services. The company also provides Fare Options pricing model, at one of three branded fares: Blue, Blue Plus, and Blue Flex. Each fare includes different offerings such as checked bags, reduced change fees, and additional TrueBlue? points, with all fares including the company's primary offering of in-flight entertainment, snacks and non-alcoholic beverages. TrueBlue? is the company's customer loyalty program designed to reward and recognize loyal customers. The company operates Airbus A321, Airbus A320 and Embraer E190 aircraft types. The company also sells vacation packages through JetBlue Vacations?, a vacation service for self-directed packaged travel planning.

Kirby Corporation

Kirby operates tank barge. The company's marine transportation segment provides marine transportation services, operating tank barges and towing vessels transporting bulk liquid products. The company transports petrochemicals, black oil, refined petroleum products and agricultural chemicals by tank barge. The company's distribution and services segment, sells genuine replacement parts, provides service mechanics to overhaul and repair engines, transmissions, reduction gears and related oilfield services equipment, rebuilds component parts or diesel engines, transmissions and reduction gears, and related equipment used in oilfield services, marine, power generation, on-highway and other industrial applications.

Matson Inc.

Matson is a holding company engaged in the provision of ocean transportation and logistics services. The company's Ocean transportation segment business is conducted through Matson Navigation Company, Inc., which provides a lifeline of ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska and Guam, and to other island economies in Micronesia and operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, CA, and provides services to Okinawa, Japan and various islands in the South Pacific. The company's Logistics business is conducted through Matson Logistics, Inc., an asset-light business that provides a variety of logistics services to its customers.

Navios Maritime Partners

Navios Maritime Partners L.P. is an international owner and operator of dry cargo and container vessels. The Company is engaged in the seaborne transportation services of a range of dry cargo commodities, including iron ore, coal, grain and fertilizer, and also containers, chartering its vessels under medium to long-term charters. It focuses on providing seaborne shipping services under long-term time charters. As of December 31, 2016, it controlled 12 Panamax vessels, nine Capesize vessels, three Ultra-Handymax vessels and seven container vessels. Panamax vessels are vessels capable of carrying a range of dry cargo commodities, including iron ore, coal, grain and fertilizer and being accommodated in various discharge ports. Capesize vessels are dedicated to the carriage of iron ore and coal. Ultra-Handymax vessels are similar to Panamax vessels although with less carrying capacity, and have self-loading and discharging gear on board to accommodate undeveloped ports.

Nuveen Select Maturities Municipal Fund

Safe Bulkers Inc.

Safe Bulkers is an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, transporting bulk cargoes, particularly coal, grain and iron ore, along worldwide shipping routes for consumers of marine drybulk transportation services. As of Feb. 9, 2018, Co. had a fleet of 39 drybulk vessels, with an aggregate carrying capacity of 3,513,800 dwt and an average age of 7.6 years. Co. deploys its vessels on both period time charters and spot time charters. The vessels on period time charters provide Co. with relatively stable cash flow and utilization rates, while the vessels in the spot market allow Co. to maintain its flexibility in low charter market conditions.

SIFCO Industries

SIFCO Industries is engaged in the production of forgings and machined components for the Aerospace and Energy markets. The company's products are made primarily of steel, stainless steel, nickel alloy, titanium and aluminum. The company's product offerings include: original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket components for aircraft and industrial gas turbine engines; steam turbine blades; structural airframe components; aircraft landing gear components; aircraft wheels and brakes; critical rotating components for helicopters; and commercial/industrial products. The company also provides heat-treatment, surface-treatment, non-destructive testing and select machining and sub-assembly of forged components.

SkyWest Inc

SkyWest, through its subsidiaries, SkyWest Airlines, Inc. and ExpressJet Airlines, Inc. (ExpressJet), operates regional airlines in the U.S. Substantially all of the company's flights are operated as Delta Connection, United Express, American Eagle or Alaska Airlines flights under code-share arrangements with Delta, United, American or Alaska, respectively. The company has two operating platforms: SkyWest, which provides regional jet service to airports throughout the U.S., as well as Mexico and Canada; and ExpressJet, which provides regional jet service to airports primarily located in the Eastern and Midwestern U.S., as well as Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO.

Southwest Airlines operates Southwest Airlines, a passenger airline that provides scheduled air transportation in the United States and near-international markets. The company has Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and serves destinations in various states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and other near-international countries such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. The company principally provides point-to-point service, which allows for direct nonstop routing. The company also provides a suite of digital platforms to support Customers' needs prior to and during the course of their travel.

Spirit Airlines Inc.

Spirit Airlines is an airline that provides travel opportunities principally throughout the domestic United States, the Caribbean and Latin America. The company's ultra low-cost carrier business model provides customers low, unbundled base fares with a range of optional services, allowing customers to choose their options. The majority of the company's tickets are sold through direct channels including online via www.spirit.com, its call center and its airport ticket counters, with www.spirit.com being the primary channel. The company also partners with a number of third parties to distribute its tickets, including online and travel agents and electronic global distribution systems.

Star Bulk Carriers Corp.

Star Bulk Carriers is an international company providing worldwide transportation solutions in the drybulk sector through its vessels-owning subsidiaries for a range of customers of major and minor bulk cargoes including iron ore, coal, grain, cement, fertilizer, along worldwide shipping routes. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. owned and operated a fleet of 73 vessels consisting primarily of Newcastlemax, Capesize as well as Kamsarmax, Ultramax and Supramax vessels with a carrying capacity between 52,055 dwt and 209,537 dwt. Co.'s vessels transport a range of major and minor bulk commodities, including ores, coal, grains and fertilizers, along worldwide shipping routes.

Triumph Group Inc.

Triumph Group designs, engineers, manufactures, repairs, and overhauls a portfolio of aerospace and defense systems, components, and structures. The company provides its products and services through three segments: Triumph Integrated Systems, which is engaged in the design, development and support of proprietary components, subsystems and systems, as well as production of assemblies using external designs; Triumph Aerospace Structures, whose companies supply commercial, business, regional and military manufacturers with metallic and composite structures and produce close-tolerance parts; and Triumph Product Support, whose companies provide solutions for commercial, regional and military aircraft.

United Rentals Inc.

United Rentals is an equipment rental company that operates throughout the United States and Canada, and Europe. The company's general rentals segment includes the rental of construction, aerial and industrial equipment, general tools and light equipment, and related services and activities. This segment's customers include construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities and homeowners. The company's trench, power and fluid solutions segment includes the rental of construction products and related services. This segment consist of: Trench Safety region, Power and Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning region; and Fluid Solutions and Fluid Solutions Europe regions.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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