Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.55 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Bear Market Rally With Potential for More

In last week's Compass (May 24) we noted the S&P 500 was testing support at 3800-3860 within its downtrend channel and that we were on watch for a potential bear market rally/oversold bounce. This has officially begun following the break above 4030 on the S&P 500, which was confirmed by bullish reversals on the Russell 2000 (IWM), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and China Internet (KWEB). For now, we are treating this as a bear market rally with the potential for more; as long as 3858 holds, it is possible the S&P 500 breaks above the longer-term downtrend near the 200-day MA, which would mean the start of a new bull market.

S&P 500. The NYSE had three consecutive days of 80%+ upside volume to close out last week (a rare and typically very bullish breadth thrust signal), all while the S&P 500 held above 3858 on a closing basis. Now that we have recorded a bullish reversal topside the 1-month downtrend (at 4030), a tradeable bounce is underway. Potential resistance levels to watch include 4165, 4257-4300, the 200-day MA (currently 4455), and the YTD downtrend (currently 4490-4500). A break above the YTD downtrend would mean this bear market is over, and a new bull market has begun... see chart below.
Small-Caps. The small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&P 600 (IJR) are testing important resistance levels at $188 and $102.50, respectively. RS on IWM is near a major reversal as well. Still, we will need to see the IWM and IJR reverse their 7-month downtrends in order to have confidence that a new bull market has begun... see page 3.
Positive Signs. High yield spreads are breaking below the steep uptrend. Cap- and equal-weighted Consumer Cyclicals vs. Staples ratios (XLY vs. XLP, RCD vs. RHS) display short-term bullish reversals. Semiconductors (SOXX) are hitting 2-month RS highs and RS is on the cusp of a 5-month reversal. Defensive Sectors such as Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Staples (XLP) display some short-term RS deterioration. These are all risk-on signals; if they continue to improve to the point where they are reversing longer-term trends, it will mean a major bottom is in place. Additionally, Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding above major supports (29,000 and 1700)...
Underlyings
Albemarle Corporation

Albemarle is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of chemicals across a range of end markets including energy storage, petroleum refining, consumer electronics, construction, automotive, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, crop protection and custom chemistry services. The company's segments include: Lithium, which develops and manufactures a range of basic lithium compounds and lithium specialties and reagents; Bromine Specialties, which includes products used in fire safety solutions and other chemicals applications; and Catalysts, which includes Clean Fuels Technologies, fluidized catalytic cracking catalysts and additives, and performance catalyst solutions.

Borr Drilling

Carthage Cement

CVR Energy Inc.

CVR Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP (CVR Refining) and CVR Partners, LP (CVR Partners). CVR Refining is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. The company's segments include: Petroleum, which includes refineries located in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK and supporting logistics assets in the region; and Nitrogen Fertilizer, which includes nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL.

Delek US Holdings Inc

Delek US Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the downstream energy business focused on petroleum refining, the transportation, storage and wholesale distribution of crude oil, intermediate and refined products and convenience store retailing. The company's segments are: refining, which processes crude oil and other feedstocks for the manufacture of transportation motor fuels; logistics, which gathers, transports and stores crude oil and markets, distributes, transports and stores refined products; and retail, which includes the operations of Alon USA Energy, Inc.'s convenience store sites located primarily in central and West Texas and New Mexico.

Dorian LPG

Dynagas LNG Partners LP

Euronav NV

Euronav is a provider of maritime shipping and offshore services engaged primarily in the transportation and storage of crude oil. As of Apr. 4, 2017, Co. owned and operated a modern fleet of 55 vessels (including four chartered-in vessels) with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 13.7 million deadweight tons, or dwt, consisting of 31 very large crude carriers, one ultra large crude carrier, 21 Suezmax vessels, and two floating, storage and offloading vessels. Co. has two operating segments: the operation of crude oil tankers on the international markets (tankers) and the floating production, storage and offloading operations.

Frontline Ltd.

GasLog Partners LP

Golar LNG Limited

Golar LNG is a midstream liquefied natural gas (LNG) company based in Bermuda. Co. is engaged in the transportation, regasification, liquefaction and trading of LNG. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, ownership, operation and chartering of LNG carriers and floating storage regasification units (FSRUs), and the development of liquefaction projects such as Floating Liquefaction Natural Gas Vessels. Co. owns and operates a fleet of 19 LNG carriers and seven FSRUs, and under management agreements operates Golar LNG Partner LP's fleet of six FSRUs and four LNG carriers.

Helmerich & Payne Inc.

Helmerich & Payne provides drilling services and technologies for oil and gas exploration and production companies. The company's contract drilling business segments are: United States Land, which operates in Colorado, Louisiana, Ohio, Oklahoma, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming; Offshore, which operates in United States federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico; and International Land, which has rigs in Argentina, Bahrain, Colombia and United Arab Emirates. The company's drilling technology-based business segment, Helmerich & Payne Technologies, is focused on developing, promoting and commercializing technologies designed to improve the drilling operations.

HOLLYFRONTIER CORP

International Seaways Inc.

Linde plc

Madison Pacific Properties Inc. Cl B

Madison Pacific Properties is engaged in owning, developing and operating industrial and commercial real estate properties located in British Columbia. As of Dec 31 2010, Co.'s property portfolio was comprised of interests in 1,152,358 sq. ft. of net rentable area of industrial properties, 190,383 sq.ft. of net rentable area of retail/highway commercial properties, and 59,080 sq.ft. of net rentable area of office property for a combined total of 1,401,821 sq. ft.

Murphy USA Inc.

Murphy USA is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's business consists primarily of the marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise through its retail stores. The company's retail stores are located in the Southeast, Southwest and Midwest United States. The company's business also includes certain product supply and wholesale assets, including product distribution terminals and pipeline positions. The company purchases fuel from oil companies, independent refiners, and other marketers, and it sells fuel to its customers. In addition to the motor fuel sold at the company's stores, its stores carry a selection of snacks, beverages, tobacco products and non-food merchandise.

Nabors Industries Ltd.

Olin Corporation

Olin is a manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and a manufacturer of ammunition. The company's Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment manufactures and sells, among others chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomer, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and perchloroethylene. The Epoxy segment produces and sells a range of epoxy materials, including allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, liquid epoxy resins, solid epoxy resins and downstream products. The Winchester segment produces and sells sporting ammunition, reloading components, small caliber military ammunition and components, and industrial cartridges.

Patterson-UTI Energy Inc.

Patterson-UTI Energy is an oilfield services company that primarily owns and operates fleets of land-based drilling rigs and a fleet of pressure pumping equipment. The company's business segments are: contract drilling services, which markets its contract drilling services to independent and other oil and natural gas operators; pressure pumping services, which provides pressure pumping services to oil and natural gas operators, primarily in Texas, the Mid-Continent region and the Appalachian region; and directional drilling services, which provides a suite of directional drilling services, including directional drilling and downhole performance motors in various onshore oil and natural gas basins.

PBF Energy Inc. Class A

PBF Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and other petroleum products in the U.S. The company operates in two business segments: refining, which the company produces a variety of products at each of its refineries such as gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals and asphalt; and logistics, which through its PBF Logistics LP subsidiary, the company owns or leases, operates, develops and acquires crude oil and refined petroleum products terminals, pipelines, storage facilities and similar logistics assets.

Phillips 66

Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The company's segments include: Midstream, which provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling and processing services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids transportation, storage, processing and marketing services; Chemicals, which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis; Refining, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products; and Marketing and Specialties, which purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, mainly in the United States and Europe.

Precision Drilling

Scorpio Tankers Inc.

SEACOR Marine Holdings

SEACOR Marine Holdings provides global marine and support transportation services to offshore oil, natural gas exploration and windfarm development and production facilities worldwide. The company's fleet features offshore support and specialty vessels that deliver cargo and personnel to offshore installations; handle anchors and mooring equipment required to tether rigs to the seabed; tow rigs and assist in placing them on location and moving them between regions; provide construction, well workover and decommissioning support; carry and launch equipment used underwater in drilling and well installation, maintenance and repair; and provide windfarm installation, maintenance and repair support.

SFL Corporation Limited

Teekay Tankers

Valero Energy Corporation

Valero Energy is an international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company's segments include: Refining, which includes its refining operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its refining operations; Ethanol, which includes its ethanol operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its ethanol operations; and Renewable Diesel, which includes the operations of its joint ventture, Diamond Green Diesel Holdings LLC, which owns and operates a renewable diesel plant in Norco, LA.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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