Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 42.87 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Breakouts Just Keep Coming; Upgrading Materials

We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we flipped to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX (up from 6480-6520), $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Just last week (1/6/26 Compass) we discussed the many breakouts (most notably the Russell 2000) which led us to believe immediate upside was ahead. The breakouts just keep coming. Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520 (up from 6200). SPX supports include 6900, 6824, 6720-6770, 6690, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, and 6290.

Breakouts Just Keep Coming. Since last month (early-December) we have been di
Underlyings
Albemarle Corporation

Albemarle is a global developer, manufacturer and marketer of chemicals across a range of end markets including energy storage, petroleum refining, consumer electronics, construction, automotive, lubricants, pharmaceuticals, crop protection and custom chemistry services. The company's segments include: Lithium, which develops and manufactures a range of basic lithium compounds and lithium specialties and reagents; Bromine Specialties, which includes products used in fire safety solutions and other chemicals applications; and Catalysts, which includes Clean Fuels Technologies, fluidized catalytic cracking catalysts and additives, and performance catalyst solutions.

Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting, casting, and rolling), and energy generation. Through direct and indirect ownership, the company has 30 operating locations in nine countries around the world, situated primarily in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and United States.

Allegheny Technologies Incorporated

Allegheny Technologies is a manufacturer of specialty materials and components. The company operates in two business segments: High Performance Materials and Components, which produces a range of specialty materials, parts and components for several main end markets, including aerospace and defense, medical, and energy; and Flat Rolled Products, which produces nickel-based alloys, specialty alloys, titanium and titanium-based alloys, and stainless steel in a variety of forms including plate, sheet, engineered strip, and Precision Rolled Strip? products.

Carpenter Technology Corporation

Carpenter Technology is a producer and distributor of alloys, including titanium alloys, powder metals, stainless steels, alloy steels, and tool steels as well as drilling tools. The company's alloy-based materials and process solutions are used for applications in the aerospace, defense, transportation, energy, medical, industrial and consumer markets as well as additive manufacturing processes and soft magnetics applications. The company also produces metal powders and parts. The company has two business segments: Specialty Alloys Operations, which consists of the company's alloy and stainless steel manufacturing operations; and Performance Engineered Products, which consists of the company's differentiated operations.

Century Aluminum Company

Century Aluminum is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities in the U.S. and Iceland. The company's principal subsidiaries are: Century Kentucky, Inc., which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Hawesville, KY; Nordural ehf, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Grundartangi, Iceland; Century Aluminum Sebree LLC, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Robards, KY; Century Aluminum of South Carolina, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Goose Creek, SC; and Nordural Helguvik ehf, which owns a greenfield primary aluminum project in Helguvik, Iceland.

Chemours Co.

Chemours is a provider of performance chemicals. The company has three reportable segments: Fluoroproducts, Chemical Solutions, and Titanium Technologies. The company's Fluoroproducts segment is a provider of fluoroproducts, including refrigerants and industrial fluoropolymer resins. The company's Chemical Solutions segment is a North American provider of industrial chemicals used in gold production, industrial, and consumer applications. The company's Titanium Technologies segment is a provider of titanium dioxide pigment, a white pigment used to deliver whiteness, brightness, opacity, and protection in a variety of applications.

ECOVYST INC

Ferroglobe PLC

Hawkins Inc.

Hawkins distributes, blends and manufactures chemicals and ingredients for its customers. The company's segments are: Industrial, which provides industrial chemicals, products and services to industries such as agriculture, chemical processing, and plating; Water Treatment, which provides chemicals, equipment and solutions for potable water, municipal and industrial wastewater, industrial process water and non-residential swimming pool water; and Health and Nutrition, which provides ingredient distribution, processing and formulation solutions to manufacturers of nutraceutical, functional food and beverage, personal care, dietary supplement and other nutritional food, health and wellness products.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace is a provider of engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The company's primary businesses focus on jet engine components, aerospace fastening systems, and titanium structural parts necessary for mission-critical performance and efficiency in aerospace and defense applications, as well as forged wheels for commercial transportation.

Innospec Inc.

Innospec develops, manufactures, blends, markets and supplies chemicals for use as fuel additives, and ingredients for personal care, home care, agrochemical, mining and other applications and oilfield chemicals. The company has four segments: Fuel Specialties, which develops, manufactures, blends, markets and supplies a range of chemical products; Performance Chemicals, which provides products focused on the personal care, home care, agrochemical and mining markets; Oilfield Services, which develops and markets products to prevent loss of mud in drilling operations, and chemical solutions; and Octane Additives, which comprises sales of tetra ethyl lead for use in automotive gasoline.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

Olin Corporation

Olin is a manufacturer and distributor of chemical products and a manufacturer of ammunition. The company's Chlor Alkali Products and Vinyls segment manufactures and sells, among others chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomer, methyl chloride, methylene chloride, chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, and perchloroethylene. The Epoxy segment produces and sells a range of epoxy materials, including allyl chloride, epichlorohydrin, liquid epoxy resins, solid epoxy resins and downstream products. The Winchester segment produces and sells sporting ammunition, reloading components, small caliber military ammunition and components, and industrial cartridges.

Quaker Chemical Corporation

Quaker Chemical develops, produces, and markets a range of formulated specialty chemical products and provides chemical management services for various industrial and manufacturing applications throughout its four segments: Americas; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Asia/Pacific; and Global Specialty Businesses. The primary product lines of the company include metal removal fluids, cleaning fluids, corrosion inhibitors, metal drawing and forming fluids, die cast mold releases, heat treatment and quenchants, metal forging fluids, hydraulic fluids, specialty greases, offshore sub-sea energy control fluids, rolling lubricants, rod and wire drawing fluids and surface treatment chemicals.

Rio Tinto PLC ADS (Mexico)

Tronox Holdings Plc

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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