Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 240.58 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook.

• The Failure of a Bearish Pattern is Bullish. We often know the implied direction (up or down) that a specific chart pattern is likely to resolve based on historical probabilities. But chart patterns are not infallible, and some technicians - present company included - would argue that failed patterns tell you more than patterns that resolve “as-expected.” What we are seeing on the S&P 500 is the failure of multiple bearish patterns (rising wedge and broadening). And the failure of a bearish pattern is bullish... see chart below.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are downgrading Communications to market weight. Additionally, continued RS deterioration for defensive Sectors Consumer Staples and Utilities has both on watch for downgrades, though this is another bullish development for the broad market... see pages 2-3.

• Industrials Breaking Out. The Manufacturing/Industrial Sector (both cap- and equal-weighted) is the latest cyclical Sector to break to new 52+ week highs, joining Technology and Financials. This is another major bullish development that points to equities likely being in the early stages of a broad-based advance... see page 4.

• Small-Caps, Banks, Transports, Materials, Energy Testing Critical Resistance. Several key cyclical/risk-on areas of the market are currently testing logical resistance. Breakouts would help get us to an outright bullish outlook... see pages 5-6.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: HC-06 Biotech, Large-Cap, MA-04 Aluminum, MA-06 Chemicals, Diversified, and MF-19 Fluid Technology & Power... see pages 14-31.
Underlyings
Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting, casting, and rolling), and energy generation. Through direct and indirect ownership, the company has 30 operating locations in nine countries around the world, situated primarily in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and United States.

AMGEN INC.

Amgen is a biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers human therapeutics. The company's products include: Enbrel? (etanercept), which is used in indications for the treatment of adult patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis, patients with chronic moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis who are candidates for systemic therapy or phototherapy and patients with active psoriatic arthritis; and Prolia? (denosumab), which is used for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at high risk of fracture or multiple risk factors for fracture, or patients who have failed or are intolerant to other available osteoporosis therapy.

Applied Industrial Technologies Inc.

Applied Industrial Technologies is a distributor of bearings, power transmission products, fluid power components and systems, specialty flow control solutions, and other industrial supplies, operating in North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore. In addition, the company provides engineering, design, and systems integration for industrial, fluid power, and flow control applications, as well as customized mechanical, fabricated rubber, fluid power, and flow control shop services. The company has two reportable segments: service center based distribution; and fluid power and flow control.

BASF SE ADS

Biogen Inc.

Biogen is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing and delivering therapies for people living with neurological and neurodegenerative diseases as well as related therapeutic adjacencies. The company's main growth areas include multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuroimmunology; Alzheimer's disease and dementia; neuromuscular disorders, including spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; movement disorders, including Parkinson's disease; and ophthalmology. The company's marketed products include TECFIDERA, AVONEX, PLEGRIDY, TYSABRI, VUMERITY and FAMPYRA for the treatment of MS, SPINRAZA for the treatment of SMA and FUMADERM for the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis.

Celanese Corporation

Celanese is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a chemical and specialty materials company. The company is a producer of engineered polymers and a producer of acetyl products, which are intermediate chemicals. The company's segments are: Engineered Materials, which develops, produces and supplies a portfolio of specialty polymers for automotive and medical applications, as well as industrial products and consumer electronics; Acetate Tow, which is a producer and supplier of acetate tow and acetate flake, primarily used in filter products applications; and Acetyl Chain, which includes the chain of intermediate chemistry, emulsion polymers and ethylene vinyl acetate polymers businesses.

Colfax Corporation

Colfax is a technology company that provides fabrication technology and medical technology products and services to customers around the world principally under the ESAB and DJO brands. The company reports its operations through the Fabrication Technology and Medical Technology segments. In its Fabrication Technology segment, the company formulates, develops, manufactures and supplies consumable products and equipment for use in the cutting, joining and automated welding of steels, aluminum and other metals and metal alloys. In its Medical Technology segment, the company develops, manufactures, and distributes medical devices with a range of products used for rehabilitation, pain management and physical therapy.

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Dow Inc.

Dow is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company delivers science-based products and solutions for its customers. The company's segments are: Packaging and Specialty Plastics, which focuses on polyolefin product portfolio to deliver plastics to customers; Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure, which produces and markets ethylene oxide and propylene oxide derivatives that are aligned to market segments as appliances, coatings, infrastructure and oil and gas; and Performance Materials and Coatings, which utilizes the company's acrylics-, cellulosics- and silicone-based technology platforms to serve the needs of the architectural and industrial coatings, home care and personal care end-markets.

Eastman Chemical Company

Eastman Chemical is a global advanced materials and specialty additives company. The company's segments are: Additives and Functional Products, which manufactures chemicals for products in the transportation, consumables, building and construction, and other markets; Advanced Materials, which produces and markets polymers, films, and plastics in transportation, consumables, building and construction, durable goods, and health and wellness markets; Chemical Intermediates, which utilizes integration from the cellulose and acetyl, olefins, and alkylamines streams; and Fibers, which manufactures and sells Estron? acetate tow and Estrobond? triacetin plasticizers for use in filtration media.

Eaton Corp. Plc

Flowserve Corporation

Flowserve is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The company develops and manufactures flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customers' processes. The company's segments are: Flowserve Pump Division, which are for custom, pumps, pre-configured industrial pumps, pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services; and Flow Control Division, which are for engineered and industrial valves, control valves, actuators and controls and related services.

FMC Corporation

FMC is an agricultural sciences company. The company provides solutions to growers around the world with a product portfolio fueled by a discovery and development pipeline in crop protection, plant health, and personnel pest and turf management. This combination of technologies includes insect control products based on Rynaxypyr? and Cyazypyr? active ingredients; Authority?, Boral?, Centium?, Command? and Gamit? branded herbicides; Talstar? and Hero? insecticides; and flutriafol-based fungicides. The company's products are used in agriculture to improve crop yield and quality by controlling a range of insects, weeds and disease, as well as in non-agricultural markets for pest control.

Gardner Denver Holdings

Gardner Denver is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of flow control and compression equipment and associated aftermarket parts, consumables and services. The company's segments are: Industrials, which designs, manufactures, markets and services air compression, vacuum and blower products; Energy, which designs, manufactures, markets and services positive displacement pumps, liquid ring vacuum pumps, compressors and integrated systems, engineered fluid loading and transfer equipment and associated aftermarket parts, consumables and services; and Medical, which designs, manufactures and market gas, liquid and precision syringe pumps and compressors.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Arconic is engaged in lightweight metals engineering and manufacturing. The company's segments include: Engineered Products and Solutions, which produces products that are used mainly in the aerospace (commercial and defense), industrial, commercial transportation, and power generation end markets; Global Rolled Products, which produces aluminum sheet and plate for a variety of end markets, and also produces aseptic foil for the packaging end market; and Transportation and Construction Solutions, which produces products that are used in the commercial transportation and nonresidential building and construction end markets, and also produces aluminum products for the industrial products end market.

Huntsman Corporation

Huntsman is a manufacturer of organic chemical products. The company's products are used in a range of applications, including those in the adhesives, aerospace, automotive, construction products, personal care and hygiene, durable and non-durable consumer products, digital inks, electronics, insulation, medical, packaging, coatings and construction, power generation, refining, synthetic fiber, textile chemicals and dyes industries. The company's primary product lines include methyl diphenyl diisocyanate, amines, maleic anhydride, epoxy-based polymer formulations, textile chemicals and dyes. The company's segments are: Polyurethanes, Performance Products, Advanced Materials and Textile Effects.

INCYTE CORP

Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics. JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) has been approved for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older. The company has also obtained a license to develop and commercialize ICLUSIG (ponatinib) in Europe and other select countries. In the European Union, ICLUSIG is approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic phase, accelerated phase or blast phase chronic myeloid leukemia.

ITT Inc.

ITT is a manufacturer of engineered components and customized technology solutions for the transportation, industrial, and oil and gas markets. The company's segments are: Motion Technologies, which manufactures brake pads, shims, shock absorbers, energy absorption components, and sealing technologies; Industrial Process, which provides a portfolio of industrial pumps, valves, and plant optimization systems and services; and Connect and Control Technologies, which designs and manufactures a range of connectors and products for applications supporting various markets including aerospace and defense, industrial, transportation, medical, and oil and gas.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

LyondellBasell Industries NV

LyondellBasell Industries is a chemical company. Co.'s chemicals businesses consist of processing plants that convert liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon feedstocks into plastic resins and other chemicals, and used by its customers to manufacture a range of products including food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, paints and coatings. Co.'s refining business consists of its Houston refinery, which processes crude oil into products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Co. manages its operations through five operating segments: Olefins and Polyolefins - Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Refining; and Technology.

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

Parker-Hannifin Corporation

Parker Hannifin is a manufacturer of motion and control technologies and systems, providing engineered solutions for a variety of mobile, industrial and aerospace markets. The company has two reporting segments: Diversified Industrial and Aerospace Systems. The company's Diversified Industrial segment products consist of a range of motion-control and fluid systems and components, which are categorized into the following groups: Engineered Materials, Filtration, Fluid Connectors, Instrumentation, and Motion Systems. The company's Aerospace Systems Segment products are used in commercial and military airframe and engine programs and include control actuation systems and components and pneumatic control components.

Rexnord Corporation

Rexnord is an industrial company. The company's platforms are: Process and Motion Control, which designs, manufactures, markets and services mechanical components including motion control products, shaft management products, aerospace components, and related services under Rexnord?, Rex?, Addax?, Euroflex?, Falk?, FlatTop?, Cambridge?, Link-Belt?, Omega?, PSI?, Shafer?, Stearns?, Highfield?, Thomas?, Centa? and Tollok? brand names; and Water Management, which designs, procures, manufactures, and markets water control and safety, water distribution and drainage, finish plumbing, and site works products for nonresidential buildings under Zurn?, Wilkins?, Green Turtle? and World Dryer? brand names.

Trane Technologies plc

Ingersoll-Rand provides products, services and solutions to enhance air in homes and buildings, transport and protect food. Co.'s segments are: Climate. which includes Trane® and American Standard® Heating & Air Conditioning, providing heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, and commercial and residential building services, parts, support and controls, energy services and building automation as well as transport temperature control solutions; and Industrial, which includes compressed air and gas systems and services, power tools, material handling systems, ARO® fluid management equipment, as well as Club Car ® golf, utility and rough terrain vehicles.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and developing research and development programs in other indications. The company's marketed products are TRIKAFTA (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor), SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI (tezacaftor in combination with ivacaftor), ORKAMBI (lumacaftor in combination with ivacaftor) and KALYDECO (ivacaftor), which are approved to treat patients with CF who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene. The company is evaluating CTX001, a genetic therapy as a potential treatment for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.

Watts Water Technologies Inc. Class A

Watts Water Technologies is a supplier of products, solutions and systems that manage and conserve the flow of fluids and energy into, through and out of buildings in the commercial and residential markets. The company's product lines are: residential and commercial flow control products, which includes backflow preventers, water pressure regulators, and temperature; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning and gas products, which includes boilers, water heaters and heating solutions; drainage and water re-use products, which includes drainage products and rain water harvesting solutions; and water quality products, which includes water filtration, conditioning and scale prevention systems.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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