Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 42.33 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Reason for Near-Term Caution?

We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we flipped to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX, $610 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. 6824 on SPX and $610 on QQQ were barely breached on Tuesday, and were quickly reclaimed yesterday, so we do not consider them "decisive" breakdowns and they remain crucial short-term supports moving forward. Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook, and we see pullbacks as buying opportunities, as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6480-6520. It is worth noting that we are seeing mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind (more on that below). SPX supports i
Underlyings
Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting, casting, and rolling), and energy generation. Through direct and indirect ownership, the company has 30 operating locations in nine countries around the world, situated primarily in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and United States.

Century Aluminum Company

Century Aluminum is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities in the U.S. and Iceland. The company's principal subsidiaries are: Century Kentucky, Inc., which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Hawesville, KY; Nordural ehf, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Grundartangi, Iceland; Century Aluminum Sebree LLC, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Robards, KY; Century Aluminum of South Carolina, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Goose Creek, SC; and Nordural Helguvik ehf, which owns a greenfield primary aluminum project in Helguvik, Iceland.

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Dow Inc.

Dow is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company delivers science-based products and solutions for its customers. The company's segments are: Packaging and Specialty Plastics, which focuses on polyolefin product portfolio to deliver plastics to customers; Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure, which produces and markets ethylene oxide and propylene oxide derivatives that are aligned to market segments as appliances, coatings, infrastructure and oil and gas; and Performance Materials and Coatings, which utilizes the company's acrylics-, cellulosics- and silicone-based technology platforms to serve the needs of the architectural and industrial coatings, home care and personal care end-markets.

DuPont de Nemours Inc.

DuPont de Nemours provides technology-based materials, ingredients and solutions in key markets including electronics, transportation, building and construction, health and wellness, food and worker safety. The company has five segments: Electronics & Imaging, which is a supplier of materials and systems for a range of consumer electronics ; Nutrition & Biosciences, which provides solutions for the global food and beverage markets; Transportation & Industrial, which delivers polymer-based high-performance materials; Safety & Construction, which provides engineered products and integrated systems; and Non-Core, a supplier of key materials for the manufacturing of photovoltaic cells and panels.

Eastman Chemical Company

Eastman Chemical is a global advanced materials and specialty additives company. The company's segments are: Additives and Functional Products, which manufactures chemicals for products in the transportation, consumables, building and construction, and other markets; Advanced Materials, which produces and markets polymers, films, and plastics in transportation, consumables, building and construction, durable goods, and health and wellness markets; Chemical Intermediates, which utilizes integration from the cellulose and acetyl, olefins, and alkylamines streams; and Fibers, which manufactures and sells Estron? acetate tow and Estrobond? triacetin plasticizers for use in filtration media.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace is a provider of engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The company's primary businesses focus on jet engine components, aerospace fastening systems, and titanium structural parts necessary for mission-critical performance and efficiency in aerospace and defense applications, as well as forged wheels for commercial transportation.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

LyondellBasell Industries NV

LyondellBasell Industries is a chemical company. Co.'s chemicals businesses consist of processing plants that convert liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon feedstocks into plastic resins and other chemicals, and used by its customers to manufacture a range of products including food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, paints and coatings. Co.'s refining business consists of its Houston refinery, which processes crude oil into products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Co. manages its operations through five operating segments: Olefins and Polyolefins - Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Refining; and Technology.

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

Rio Tinto PLC ADS (Mexico)

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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