Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.59 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Risk Appetites Improving

While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites. Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors; the fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.

Risk-On Signals. We are seeing several signs that indicate improving risk appetites, including: (1) short-term bearish RS inflections for defensive Sectors (Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate), (2) small-caps (IWM vs. SPX) display a short-term bullish RS reversal, (3) cyclicals (hotels/resorts/casinos/leisure, cruises, airlines, metals/mining) display bullish price and RS inflections, (4) bottoming RS for emerging markets (EEM) and China (MCHI), and (5) bitcoin displays a bullish reversal. These are all things that we would not expect to see if the stock market was in serious trouble, and suggests the pullback is likely over... see charts below and pages 3-5.
S&P 500, Small-Caps. The S&P 500 continues to dance around its 200-day MA (currently 4455), but the important point is that the SPX remains above 4257 support, and we cannot be bearish if the index is above 4257. If the index fell below 4257 however, we could see another 8-10% downside. As for resistance, we are watching 4590-4595 followed by 4635-4640. The small-cap S&P 600 (IJR) remains above $102.50 support, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains below $208-209 resistance. The IWM is approaching the $208-209 level now and we are watching for a potential break above this area, which is something that would be very bullish for the broad market... see charts below.
Big Picture Trends. Gold is attempting a breakout from a 1.5-year consolidation pattern. The Consumer Discretionary vs. Staples ratio (XLY vs. XLP) is holding at key support and is on the cusp of a bullish reversal. Semiconductors (SOXX) are holding at the 200-day MA and RS remains above support. As for the negative developments, high yield spreads are breaking above the Dec. 2021 high of 375 bps and is now hitting 1+ year wides... see pages 6-7.
Underlyings
Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting, casting, and rolling), and energy generation. Through direct and indirect ownership, the company has 30 operating locations in nine countries around the world, situated primarily in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and United States.

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd.

Century Aluminum Company

Century Aluminum is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities in the U.S. and Iceland. The company's principal subsidiaries are: Century Kentucky, Inc., which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Hawesville, KY; Nordural ehf, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Grundartangi, Iceland; Century Aluminum Sebree LLC, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Robards, KY; Century Aluminum of South Carolina, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Goose Creek, SC; and Nordural Helguvik ehf, which owns a greenfield primary aluminum project in Helguvik, Iceland.

Choice Hotels International Inc.

Choice Hotels International is a hotel franchisor. The company franchises lodging properties under the following proprietary brand names: Comfort Inn?, Comfort Suites?, Quality?, Clarion?, Clarion Pointe?, Sleep Inn?, Econo Lodge?, Rodeway Inn?, MainStay Suites?, Suburban Extended Stay Hotel?, WoodSpring Suites?, Cambria? Hotels, and Ascend Hotel Collection?. The company's primary segment is the hotel franchising business. The company's domestic franchising operations are conducted through direct franchising relationships while its international franchise operations are conducted through a combination of direct franchising and master franchising relationships.

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc

Hilton Worldwide Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in hospitality with operations organized in two operating segments: management and franchise, which includes all of the hotels the company manages for third-party owners, as well as all franchised hotels operated or managed by someone other than the company; and Ownership, which includes hotels that the company owned or leased or that are owned or leased by entities in which the company owns a noncontrolling financial interest. Hilton Honors is the company's guest loyalty program that rewards guests with points for each stay at nearly all of its properties, which are then redeemable for free nights and other goods and services.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace is a provider of engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The company's primary businesses focus on jet engine components, aerospace fastening systems, and titanium structural parts necessary for mission-critical performance and efficiency in aerospace and defense applications, as well as forged wheels for commercial transportation.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A

Hyatt Hotels is a hospitality company engaged in the development, ownership, operation, management, franchising, licensing or provision of services to a portfolio of properties, consisting of full service hotels, select service hotels, resorts, and other properties, including spas and fitness studios, timeshare, fractional, and other forms of residential and vacation properties. The company also manages, provides services to, or licenses its trademarks with respect to residential ownership units that are often adjacent to a Hyatt-branded hotel. Additionally, for condominium ownership units, the company provides services and/or manage the rental programs or homeowner associations associated with such units.

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP

International Game Technology PLC

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Las Vegas Sands is a developer of destination properties (Integrated Resorts) that feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, restaurants and other amenities. The company owns and operates Integrated Resorts in Asia and the United States. Through its ownership of Sands China Ltd., the company owns and operates properties including The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao. In Singapore, the company owns and operates the Marina Bay Sands. The company's Las Vegas Operating Properties includes The Venetian Resort Las Vegas and the Sands Expo Center.

Marriott International Inc. Class A

Marriott International is a worldwide operator, franchisor, and licensor of hotel, residential and timeshare properties under various brand names at different price and service points. The company has operations in the following reportable business segments: North American Full-Service, which includes the company's Luxury and Premium properties located in United States and Canada; North American Limited-Service, which includes the company's Select properties located in United States and Canada; and Asia Pacific, which includes all properties in the company's Asia Pacific region.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a vacation company that provides vacation ownership, exchange, rental and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services. The company's reportable segments are; Vacation Ownership, which develops, markets, sells, rents and manages vacation ownership and related products under its licensed brands; and Exchange and Third-Party Management, which includes exchange networks and membership programs comprised of exchange, getaways, interval gold and interval platinum, club interval, sales and marketing support for interval international network resorts, and operational support for interval international network resorts.

Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited Sponsored ADR

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.

Park Hotels & Resorts is a lodging real estate investment trust with a portfolio of hotels and resorts. The company's portfolio includes hotels in primary urban and convention areas, such as New York City, Washington, D.C., Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, New Orleans and Denver; resorts in key leisure destinations, including Hawaii, Orlando, Key West and Miami Beach; and hotels adjacent to primary gateway airports, such as Los Angeles International, Boston Logan International and Miami International, as well as hotels in select suburban locations. The company operates its business through two operating segments: consolidated hotels; and unconsolidated hotels.

Rio Tinto PLC ADS (Mexico)

Travel Plus Leisure Co

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Inc.

Wyndham Hotels & Resorts is a hotel franchisor, licensing its hotel brands to hotel owners around the world. The company operates in the following segments: Hotel franchising, which licenses the company's lodging brands and provides related services to third-party hotel owners and others; and Hotel management, which provides hotel management services for full-service and limited-service hotels as well as several hotels that are owned by the company

Wynn Resorts Limited

Wynn Resorts is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, developer, and operator of resorts featuring hotel rooms, retail space, an array of dining and entertainment options, meeting and convention facilities, and gaming. Through its subsidiary, Wynn Macau, Limited, the company operates two integrated resorts in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau. In Las Vegas, NV, the company also operates and, with the exception of certain retail space, own Wynn Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor, an integrated resort in Everett, MA, adjacent to Boston.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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