Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 42.81 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Concerns Persist; SPX Testing Resistance

After downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass, we further downgraded our outlook to bearish last week (3/31/26 Compass) with the S&P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, Nasdaq futures (NQ) violating 24,000 support, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking down below crucial $245 support. The fact that these levels were reclaimed almost immediately gives us some reason for pause, as one can make the argument that they are currently nothing more than bullish false breakdowns. With that said, we discussed last week how we would be sellers on any rallies to 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA on SPX (currently 6648), and that remains our playbook. SPX and QQQ are also currently testing 20-day MA and 21-day EMA resistances, a common rejection spot. Importantly, none of our concerns that we have discussed since early-February have abated. We expect a stair-step decline to continue, similar to 2022; a reliable bottom should form once there is some downside capitulation.

Concerns Have Not Abated. We still see reason for caution: (1) U.S. interest rate volatility (MOVE index) has moved lower as seemingly fake deadlines get extended, but the MOVE index still remains around the crucial 85 level. (2) The U.S. dollar (DXY) remains above 21-day EMA support with the 2+ month uptrend intact, as it coils below crucial resistance at $100.25-$100.80; a breakout would be bearish for global equities. (3) High yield spreads are at 9-month wides, and are testing the crucial 320bps level. (4) Defensive Sectors (Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate), Energy (XLE), and Materials (XLB) remain leadership; we would expect to see RS breakdowns if SPX has bottomed, which has not happened. (5) WTI crude oil remains short- and long-term bullish as it holds above its 21-day EMA (and we remain bullish, as we have been throughout all of 2026)... see pages 2-6.
Big Picture Trends. Semiconductors (SMH, SOXX) reclaimed crucial horizontal supports for now, but remains below $400 resistance on SMH. The 10-year Treasury yield remains above 4.30% support for now, but a break below would be time to buy bonds. Large-cap value continues to outperform relative to growth.
Underlyings
Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting, casting, and rolling), and energy generation. Through direct and indirect ownership, the company has 30 operating locations in nine countries around the world, situated primarily in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and United States.

BASF SE ADS

Cabot Corporation

Cabot is a specialty chemicals and performance materials company. The company's principal products are rubber and specialty grade carbon blacks, specialty compounds, fumed metal oxides, activated carbons, inkjet colorants, and aerogel. The company's segments are: Reinforcement Materials, which combines the rubber blacks and elastomer composites product lines; Performance Chemicals, which combines its specialty grades of carbon black, fumed metal oxides and aerogel product lines in its Performance Additives business, and combines its specialty compounds and inkjet product lines in its Formulated Solutions business; and Purification Solutions, which represents the company's activated carbon business.

Century Aluminum Company

Century Aluminum is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities in the U.S. and Iceland. The company's principal subsidiaries are: Century Kentucky, Inc., which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Hawesville, KY; Nordural ehf, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Grundartangi, Iceland; Century Aluminum Sebree LLC, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Robards, KY; Century Aluminum of South Carolina, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Goose Creek, SC; and Nordural Helguvik ehf, which owns a greenfield primary aluminum project in Helguvik, Iceland.

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Darling Ingredients Inc.

Darling Ingredients is a global developer and producer of natural ingredients from edible and inedible bio-nutrients. The company's segments include: Feed Ingredients, which includes the collection and processing of beef, poultry and pork animal by-products in North America and Europe into non-food grade oils and protein meals; Food Ingredients, which includes the purchase and processing of beef and pork bone chips, beef hides, pig skins, and fish skins into collagen in Europe, China, South America and North America; and Fuel Ingredients, which converts animal fats, recycled greases, used cooking oil, inedible corn oil, soybean oil, or other feedstocks into renewable diesel.

Dow Inc.

Dow is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company delivers science-based products and solutions for its customers. The company's segments are: Packaging and Specialty Plastics, which focuses on polyolefin product portfolio to deliver plastics to customers; Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure, which produces and markets ethylene oxide and propylene oxide derivatives that are aligned to market segments as appliances, coatings, infrastructure and oil and gas; and Performance Materials and Coatings, which utilizes the company's acrylics-, cellulosics- and silicone-based technology platforms to serve the needs of the architectural and industrial coatings, home care and personal care end-markets.

DuPont de Nemours Inc.

DuPont de Nemours provides technology-based materials, ingredients and solutions in key markets including electronics, transportation, building and construction, health and wellness, food and worker safety. The company has five segments: Electronics & Imaging, which is a supplier of materials and systems for a range of consumer electronics ; Nutrition & Biosciences, which provides solutions for the global food and beverage markets; Transportation & Industrial, which delivers polymer-based high-performance materials; Safety & Construction, which provides engineered products and integrated systems; and Non-Core, a supplier of key materials for the manufacturing of photovoltaic cells and panels.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace is a provider of engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The company's primary businesses focus on jet engine components, aerospace fastening systems, and titanium structural parts necessary for mission-critical performance and efficiency in aerospace and defense applications, as well as forged wheels for commercial transportation.

Huntsman Corporation

Huntsman is a manufacturer of organic chemical products. The company's products are used in a range of applications, including those in the adhesives, aerospace, automotive, construction products, personal care and hygiene, durable and non-durable consumer products, digital inks, electronics, insulation, medical, packaging, coatings and construction, power generation, refining, synthetic fiber, textile chemicals and dyes industries. The company's primary product lines include methyl diphenyl diisocyanate, amines, maleic anhydride, epoxy-based polymer formulations, textile chemicals and dyes. The company's segments are: Polyurethanes, Performance Products, Advanced Materials and Textile Effects.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

Koppers Holdings Inc.

Koppers Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of treated wood products, wood treatment chemicals, and carbon compounds. The company operates three principal business segments: Railroad and Utility Products and Services, which supplies railroad crossties to the North American railroads; Performance Chemicals, which manufactures and supplies water-based wood preservatives and wood specialty additives to treaters who supply the residential, agricultural and industrial pressure-treated wood markets; and Carbon Materials and Chemicals, which processes coal tar into a variety of products, including creosote and other related railroad products.

LyondellBasell Industries NV

LyondellBasell Industries is a chemical company. Co.'s chemicals businesses consist of processing plants that convert liquid and gaseous hydrocarbon feedstocks into plastic resins and other chemicals, and used by its customers to manufacture a range of products including food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, paints and coatings. Co.'s refining business consists of its Houston refinery, which processes crude oil into products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Co. manages its operations through five operating segments: Olefins and Polyolefins - Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Refining; and Technology.

Methanex Corporation

Methanex is a producer and supplier of methanol to the international markets of Asia Pacific, North America, Europe and South America. Co.'s operations consist of the production and sale of methanol, a commodity chemical.

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

Rio Tinto PLC ADS (Mexico)

Sebata Holdings Ltd

Sebata Holdings Limited, formerly MICROmega Holdings Limited, is an integrated holding company focused on the provision of support services, financial services and information technology (IT). The Company's segments include occupational health and safety, labour supply, information technology, financial services and holdings and consolidated. Its support services include occupational health, safety and environmental risk management services and solutions, and integrated human resource solutions, which include recruitment and labor brokering services. Its financial services include specialist intermediary broking service for commercial banks, investment banks, stock brokers and trading entities in the wholesale financial markets. Its IT solutions include converged communications, cloud computing and IT support services; integrated technology solutions and enterprise management solutions for public sector clients, and supply of smart water meters and electronic water-control devices.

SMITHFIELD FOODS INC.

Tyson Foods Inc. Class A

Tyson Foods is a food company. The company's operations consist of breeding stock, contract farmers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, Inc., the company is engaged as poultry breeding stock supplier. The company also processes live fed cattle and hogs and fabricates dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, case-ready beef and pork and fully-cooked meats. The company produces a range of fresh, frozen and refrigerated food products. The company operates in Beef, Pork, Chicken and Prepared Foods segments.

Westlake Chemical Corporation

Westlake Chemical operates as a manufacturer and marketer of basic chemicals, vinyls, polymers and building products. The company operates in two operating segments: Olefins, which manufactures and markets polyethylene, styrene monomer and various ethylene co-products; and Vinyls, which manufactures and markets polyvinyl chloride (PVC), vinyl chloride monomer, ethylene dichloride, chlor-alkali (chlorine and caustic soda), chlorinated derivative products and ethylene, as well as manufactures and sells building products fabricated from PVC, including residential siding, trim and mouldings, pipe and fittings for various water, sewer and industrial applications, and profiles for windows and doors.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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