Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.71 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging & Frontier Markets

The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days -- and even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). The Fed's next move is almost guaranteed to be a cut (though when it happens is up for debate). And we also continue to get an ever-increasing number of global indexes and Sectors with long-term breakouts -- the latest being the MSCI Emerging Market and Frontier indexes; when the riskiest investable markets globally are breaking out, you know the bull market is alive and well... see charts below and page 3.

S&P 500. As discussed above, if the S&P 500 closes below its 20-day MA/21-day EMA for more than 2-3 consecutive days, 4983-5050 is next support to watch (gap from 2/22/24). As long as this gap remains unfilled, it signals upside power in favor of the bulls. If the S&P 500 were to break below 4983, we would expect it to find strong support in the 4800-4930 range. As long as 4800 holds, our long-term bullish outlook will remain in place... see page 3.
Concerns? In terms of potential concerns, we are monitoring Treasury yields and WTI crude oil (and the Bloomberg Commodity index more generally), both of which have been rising YTD. To be clear, these are not major concerns at the moment, but they have the potential to become a problem should they persist; we will continue to monitor closely. For now, the YTD rise in Treasury yields has been mostly due to improving GDP expectations – NOT rising inflation expectations – and non-inflationary growth is a good thing. Additionally, interest rate volatility (MOVE index) remains at a 2-year low. This all suggests that marginally higher Treasury yields will not derail the equity bull market, not to mention the fact that 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury yields have not been able to decisively break above important resistances of 4.77%, 4.49%, 4.35%, and 4.50%, respectively. In terms of rising commodity prices, as long as the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) and WTI crude oil stay below $33.20 and $95, respectively, it should keep a lid on inflation... see pages 4-5.
Risk-On Signals. High yield spreads are at 2+ year narrows. Defensive Sectors including Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), and Health Care (XLV) are underperforming. Cyclicals vs. Staples ratios remain in uptrends. The U.S. Dollar (DXY) remains below major resistance at $106, and also below shorter-term resistance at $104.70.
Underlyings
Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting, casting, and rolling), and energy generation. Through direct and indirect ownership, the company has 30 operating locations in nine countries around the world, situated primarily in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and United States.

Alumina Ltd ADS

Braskem S/A ADS

Cabot Corporation

Cabot is a specialty chemicals and performance materials company. The company's principal products are rubber and specialty grade carbon blacks, specialty compounds, fumed metal oxides, activated carbons, inkjet colorants, and aerogel. The company's segments are: Reinforcement Materials, which combines the rubber blacks and elastomer composites product lines; Performance Chemicals, which combines its specialty grades of carbon black, fumed metal oxides and aerogel product lines in its Performance Additives business, and combines its specialty compounds and inkjet product lines in its Formulated Solutions business; and Purification Solutions, which represents the company's activated carbon business.

Century Aluminum Company

Century Aluminum is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities in the U.S. and Iceland. The company's principal subsidiaries are: Century Kentucky, Inc., which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Hawesville, KY; Nordural ehf, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Grundartangi, Iceland; Century Aluminum Sebree LLC, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Robards, KY; Century Aluminum of South Carolina, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Goose Creek, SC; and Nordural Helguvik ehf, which owns a greenfield primary aluminum project in Helguvik, Iceland.

COEUR MINING INC

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Endeavour Silver Corp.

Endeavour Silver is engaged in silver mining in Mexico and related activities including acquisition, exploration, development, extraction, processing, refining and reclamation. Co. is also engaged in exploration activities in Chile. Co. has three operating mining segments, GuanacevA, Bolanitos and El Cubo, which are located in Mexico as well as Exploration and Corporate segments. The Exploration segment consists of projects in the exploration and evaluation phases in Mexico and Chile.

First Majestic Silver Corp.

First Majestic Silver is engaged in the business of silver production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver production in Mexico.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

Fortuna Silver Mines is engaged in the mining, exploration, extraction and processing of silver, gold and zinc mine properties in southern Peru and Mexico.

FreightCar America Inc.

FreightCar America manufactures railcars and railcar components. The company designs and manufactures a variety of railcar types for transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products primarily in North America, including open top hoppers, covered hoppers, and gondolas along with intermodal and non-intermodal flat cars. The company's Manufacturing segment includes new railcar manufacturing, used railcar sales, railcar leasing and railcar rebuilds. The company's products and services include: VersaFlood Hopper Cars, Covered Hopper Cars, Dynastack Series, Steel Products Cars, Boxcars, Aluminum Coal Cars, Stainless Steel and Hybrid Stainless Steel/Aluminum Coal Cars, and Other Railcar Types.

GATX Corporation

GATX is a global railcar lessor. The Rail North America segment provides railcars pursuant to full-service leases under which it maintains the railcars, pays ad valorem taxes and property insurance, and provides other ancillary services. The Rail International segment leases railcars pursuant to full-service leases under which it maintains the railcars and provides services according to customer requirements. The Portfolio Management segment leases aircraft spare engines, as well as five liquefied gas-carrying vessels. The American Steamship Company segment provides waterborne transportation of dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal, limestone aggregates, and metallurgical limestone.

Greenbrier Companies Inc.

Greenbrier Companies is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, manufactures and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, the Gulf Cooperation Council and South America. The company has three segments: Manufacturing, which produces conventional railcars, tank cars, intermodal railcars, automotive and is involved in marine vessel fabrication; Wheels, Repair and Parts, which includes reconditioning of wheels and axles in addition to new axle machining and finishing and downsizing; and Leasing and Services, which includes railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, total fleet management, administration and railcar remarketing.

Hannibal Lease

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

Koppers Holdings Inc.

Koppers Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of treated wood products, wood treatment chemicals, and carbon compounds. The company operates three principal business segments: Railroad and Utility Products and Services, which supplies railroad crossties to the North American railroads; Performance Chemicals, which manufactures and supplies water-based wood preservatives and wood specialty additives to treaters who supply the residential, agricultural and industrial pressure-treated wood markets; and Carbon Materials and Chemicals, which processes coal tar into a variety of products, including creosote and other related railroad products.

L.B. Foster Co.

L. B. Foster is a manufacturer and distributor of products and service provider for transportation and energy infrastructure. The company's business segments are: Rail Products and Services, which is comprised of several manufacturing, distribution, and service businesses that provide a variety of products and services for freight and passenger railroads and industrial companies throughout the world; Construction Products, which is composed of Piling and Fabricated Bridge Products and Precast Concrete Products business units; and Tubular and Energy Services, which is composed of Protective Coatings and Measurement Systems and Test, Inspection, and Threading Services business units.

Methanex Corporation

Methanex is a producer and supplier of methanol to the international markets of Asia Pacific, North America, Europe and South America. Co.'s operations consist of the production and sale of methanol, a commodity chemical.

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

Orion Engineered Carbons SA

Pan American Silver Corp.

Pan American Silver is engaged in the production and sale of silver, gold and other base metals including copper, lead and zinc as well as other related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing, refining and reclamation. Co.'s primary product (silver) is produced in Peru, Mexico, Argentina and Bolivia. Additionally, Co. has project development activities in Peru, Mexico and Argentina, and exploration activities throughout South America and Mexico.

PULDIN LION GROUP REIT-SOFIA

Rio Tinto plc

Rio Tinto is engaged in finding, mining and processing mineral resources. Co. has four product groups: iron ore, which supplies the global seaborne iron ore trade; aluminium, which includes bauxite mines, alumina refineries, and aluminium smelters; Copper and Diamonds, which has managed operations in Australia, Canada, Mongolia and the U.S., and non-managed operations in Chile and Indonesia, with by-product including gold, silver, molybdenum and others such as sulphuric acid, rhenium, and lead carbonate; and Energy and Minerals, which comprises mining, refining and marketing operations across borates, coal, iron ore concentrate and pellets, salt, titanium dioxide and uranium sectors.

Silvercorp Metals

Silvercorp Metals is engaged in the operation and development of and in the acquisition and exploration for high-grade silver-related mineral properties in the People's Republic of China. The Ying Mining District consists of four mines (SGX, HPG, TLP, and LM) and is Co.'s primary source of production.

Trinity Industries Inc.

Trinity Industries is a provider of railcar products and services in North America. The company has the following reportable segments: Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, which provides operating leases for freight and tank railcars, as well as originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors and provides fleet maintenance and management services to industrial shippers; Rail Products Group, which manufactures freight and tank railcars in North America used for transporting a variety of liquids, gases, and dry cargo, and also provides a range of maintenance services and solutions; and All Other, which includes the company's highway products business.

Valvoline Inc.

Valvoline is a marketer and supplier of engine and automotive maintenance products and services. The company's segments are: Quick Lubes, which services the passenger car and light truck quick lube market via the company-owned, independent franchises and joint venture retail quick lube service center stores, as well as independent Express Care stores that service vehicles with the company's products; Core North America, which sells Valvoline? and other branded and private label engine and automotive maintenance products in the United States and Canada; and International, which sells Valvoline? and other branded engine and automotive products for the maintenance of consumer and commercial vehicles and equipment.

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation

Wabtec primarily serves the global freight rail and passenger transit industries. The company provides its products and services through two segments: Freight, which primarily manufactures and provides aftermarket parts and services for new locomotives; provides components for new and existing locomotives and freight cars; builds new commuter locomotives; and supplies rail control and infrastructure products, among others: and Transit, which primarily manufactures and services components for new and existing passenger transit vehicles, mainly regional trains, high speed trains, subway cars, light-rail vehicles and buses; and supplies rail control and infrastructure products, among others.

Westlake Chemical Corporation

Westlake Chemical operates as a manufacturer and marketer of basic chemicals, vinyls, polymers and building products. The company operates in two operating segments: Olefins, which manufactures and markets polyethylene, styrene monomer and various ethylene co-products; and Vinyls, which manufactures and markets polyvinyl chloride (PVC), vinyl chloride monomer, ethylene dichloride, chlor-alkali (chlorine and caustic soda), chlorinated derivative products and ethylene, as well as manufactures and sells building products fabricated from PVC, including residential siding, trim and mouldings, pipe and fittings for various water, sewer and industrial applications, and profiles for windows and doors.

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp

Wheaton Precious Metals is engaged in the silver mining business.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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