Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 48.12 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance

Cyclical value areas including Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary display short-term improvement as interest rates show signs of a potential bottom at 1.13%. This is encouraging, however we are still neutral yet constructive overall. As we noted last week, we need to see the 10-year Treasury yield breach, and hold above, 1.45%, as well as sustained price improvement by small-caps (i.e., IWM above $234.50) before we can declare a new broad-based bull market.

S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish and the 50-day MA remains major support at 4337; as long as the 50-day MA holds, we expect to see rallies to 4515 followed by 4650. Should the 50-day MA (4337) fail to hold we expect more sideways to downward price action, as it would likely kickstart a 5-15% pullback. Should the 50-day MA break, our next support levels to watch would be 4257, 4233, and 4164.
Cyclicals Improving (ex-Energy). We are beginning to see short-term price and RS improvement for select cyclical value areas, notably Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB), Manufacturing (XLI), Transportation, and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We need to see these Sectors and the Russell 2000 (IWM) start to break above their 1H2021 highs in order to have confidence that prices are headed higher in the months ahead. In order for that to happen, we would likely need the 10-year Treasury yield to move back above the 1.40-1.45% area... see chart below & pages 3-4.
Concerns. Small caps are underperforming (stick with large-caps), high yield spreads still look like they are bottoming, emerging markets (EEM) are flirting with a major breakdown, and defensives (Utilities, Staples) continue to show relative strength improvement. These are all risk-off signals that suggest the overall market is not yet in the clear. Actionable Utility stocks include AWK and AEE. Actionable Staples stocks include WMT and PEP... see pages 5-7.
Underlyings
Ameren Corporation

Ameren is a public utility holding company. Through its subsidiary, Union Electric Company, the company operates a rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution business and a rate-regulated natural gas distribution business in Missouri. Through its subsidiary, Ameren Illinois Company, the company operates rate-regulated electric transmission, electric distribution, and natural gas distribution businesses in Illinois. Through its Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois subsidiary, the company operates a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rate-regulated electric transmission business. The company also has other subsidiaries that conduct other activities, such as providing shared services.

American Water Works Company Inc.

American Water Works is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a publicly-traded water and wastewater utility company. The company provides drinking water, wastewater and other related services to people in various states. The company's Regulated Businesses provide water and wastewater services to residential, commercial, industrial, public authority, fire service and sale for resale customers. The company's Market-Based Businesses provide complementary home services primarily to residential and smaller commercial customers and water and wastewater services to the United States government on military installations, as well as municipalities, utilities and industrial customers.

Black Hills Corporation

Black Hills is a utility holding company, which operates in four segments: Electric Utilities, which generates, transmits and distributes electricity to electric utility customers in Colorado, Montana, South Dakota and Wyoming; Gas Utilities, which serves natural gas utility customers in Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Wyoming; Power Generation, which produces electric power from its wind, natural gas and coal-fired generating plants and sells the electric capacity and energy primarily to its utilities under long-term contracts; and Mining, which produces coal at its mine near Gillette, WY, and sells it under long-term contracts to mine-mouth electric generation facilities.

Commercial Metals Company

Commercial Metals, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, recycles and markets steel and metal products, related materials and services. The company has four reportable segments: Americas Recycling, which processes scrap metals for use as a raw material by the company and other manufacturers of new metal products; Americas Mills, which operates electric arc furnace (EAF) mini mills, EAF micro mills, rerolling mill, scrap metal shredders, and scrap metal processing facilities; Americas Fabrication, which includes warehouses that sell or rent products for the installation of concrete; and International Mill, which consists of an EAF mini mill, recycling and fabrication operations located in Poland.

Duke Energy Corporation

Duke Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as an energy company. The company's segments include: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, which provides retail electric service through the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity to customers within the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States; Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, which conducts natural gas operations, as well as owns, operates and has investments in various pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities; and Commercial Renewables, which acquires, develops, builds, operates and owns wind and solar renewable generation throughout the continental United States.

NextEra Energy Inc.

NextEra Energy is a holding company, engaged in electric power and energy infrastructure. The company has two principal businesses, Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and NextEra Energy Resources, LLC (NEER). FPL is a rate-regulated electric utility engaged primarily in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electric energy in Florida. FPL provides service to its electric customers through a transmission and distribution system that links its generation facilities to its customers. NEER, through its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, manages and operates electric generation facilities in wholesale energy markets primarily in the United States and Canada.

Nucor Corporation

Nucor manufactures steel and steel products. The company's operations include international trading and sales companies that buy and sell steel and steel products. The company's segments are: steel mills, which produces sheet steel, plate steel, structural steel, and bar steel; steel products, which produces hollow structural section steel tubing, electrical conduit, steel joists and joist girders, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel fasteners, metal building systems, and wire and wire mesh; and raw materials, which produces direct reduced iron (DRI), brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron, hot briquetted iron and DRI, supplies ferro-alloys, and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal.

OGE Energy Corp.

OGE Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an energy and energy services provider providing physical delivery and related services for both electricity and natural gas primarily in the south central United States Co. conducts these activities through two business segments: electric utility, which generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric energy in Oklahoma and western Arkansas; and natural gas midstream operations, which consist of the company's investment in Enable Midstream Partners, LP, which is primarily engaged in the business of gathering, processing, transporting and storing natural gas.

PepsiCo Inc.

PepsiCo is a food and beverage company. The company's segments include: Frito-Lay North America, which includes food and snack businesses in the United States and Canada; Quaker Foods North America, which includes cereal, rice, pasta and other food businesses in the United States and Canada; PepsiCo Beverages North America, which includes beverage businesses in the United States and Canada; Latin America, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Latin America; Europe, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Europe; and Africa, Middle East and South Asia, which includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc. Class A

Schnitzer Steel Industries is engaged as a recycler of ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal, including end-of-life vehicles, and a manufacturer of finished steel products. The company has two segments: Auto and Metals Recycling, which acquires and recycles ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal for sale to foreign and domestic metal producers, processors and brokers, and procures salvaged vehicles and sells serviceable used auto parts from these vehicles through a network of self-service auto parts stores; and Cascade Steel and Scrap, which produces a range of finished steel long products using ferrous recycled scrap metal and other raw materials.

Sims Metal Management Ltd. ADS

Steel Dynamics Inc.

Steel Dynamics is a steel producer and metal recycler. The company manufactures and sells steel products, processes and sells recycled ferrous and nonferrous metals, and fabricates and sells steel joists and deck products. The company's segments are: Steel, which produces steel from ferrous scrap and scrap substitutes, utilizing casting, automated rolling mills and several downstream steel coating and bar processing lines, and Iron Dynamics; metals recycling, which involves the purchase, processing, and resale of ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades; and steel fabrication, which produces steel building components, including steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck.

United States Steel Corporation

United States Steel is a steel producer of flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in the United States and Europe. The company is also engaged in railroad services and real estate operations. The company's segments are: North American Flat-Rolled, which produces slabs, strip mill plates, sheets and tin mill products; U. S. Steel Europe, which produces and sells slabs, strip mill plate, sheet, tin mill products and spiral welded pipe, as well as heating radiators and refractory ceramic materials; and Tubular Products, which produces and sells electric resistance welded steel casing and tubing (known as oil country tubular goods), and standard and line pipe and mechanical tubing.

Walmart Inc.

Walmart is engaged in global operations of retail, wholesale and other units, as well as eCommerce, located throughout the U.S., Africa, Argentina, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, Japan, Mexico and the U.K. The company's operations are conducted in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., which is a mass merchandiser of consumer products, operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands, as well as walmart.com, jet.com and other eCommerce brands; Walmart International, which includes various formats divided into retail, wholesale and other categories; and Sam's Club, which is a membership-only warehouse club that also operates samsclub.com.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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