Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More?

We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. In last week's Compass (10/31/23) we discussed how the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, since that would indicate false breakdowns. False breakdowns are officially in place, and these levels remain important supports moving forward. Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the Russell 2000 (IWM) testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considered the persistent bullish breadth divergences. The result? $162-$163 support held perfectly, and the IWM gained +2.7% on back-to-back days to close the week. For reference, since this recent pullback began in August, the biggest one-day gain on the IWM prior to last week was +1.6%... see chart below and page 3. This, and additional reasons highlighted below, lead us to believe this is more than just another counter-trend rally.

U.S. Dollar (DXY) & Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports. The DXY is breaking below major support at $105.70, while 10- and 30-year Treasury yields display steep 2-month uptrend violations. As long as the DXY and Treasury yields continue to move sideways to lower, it is a huge risk-on signal for global risk assets. This was a major reason why we called for global equities to rally in October/early-November of 2022... see page 4.
Additional Evidence that the Broad Equity Market Has Bottomed. Many indexes/Sectors display 2+ month bullish reversals, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI), MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX), MSCI EM (EEM), MSCI EAFE (EFA), Technology (XLK), ARK Innovation (ARKK), Renaissance IPO (IPO), retail (XRT), banks (KRE, KBE), and homebuilders (ITB). Major supports were reclaimed on Dow Internet (FDN) at $155, and the two "magnificent seven" names that broke -- Tesla (TSLA) at $200-$205 and Alphabet (GOOGL) at $127. Signs of improving breadth that we have discussed since our 10/17/23 Compass have only continued. RS for defensive Sectors Utilities and Staples remains below their September highs, still providing a risk-on signal. High yield spreads are narrowing below the uptrend that began in mid-September. Ultimately, we will need to see reversals of the 3.5-month downtrends in SPX and Nasdaq 100 to "know" that the market has bottomed, but we could look back in hindsight and realize that these were all precursors... see pages 5-6.
Underlyings
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A

Abercrombie & Fitch, through its subsidiaries, is a retailer which primarily sells its products through its wholly-owned store and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as through various third-party wholesale, franchise and licensing arrangements. The company provides an assortment of apparel, personal care products and accessories for men, women and children under the Hollister, Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands. The company has operations in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The company's operating segments are brand-based: Hollister and Abercrombie, the latter of which includes the company's Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc.

American Eagle Outfitters is a multi-brand retailer. The company operates retail stores and online at www.ae.com and www.aerie.com. The company provides a range of apparel and accessories for men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters brand, and intimates, apparel and personal care products for women under the Aerie brand. The company operates stores in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, and China. The company also has license agreements with third-parties to operate American Eagle Outfitters and Aerie stores throughout Asia, Europe, India, Latin America and the Middle East. The company also operates two other brands, Tailgate, a vintage, sports-inspired apparel brand, and Todd Snyder New York, a menswear brand.

Arch Capital Group Ltd.

Buckle Inc.

The Buckle is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women. The company markets a selection of mainly brand name casual apparel including denims, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories, and footwear. The company provides denims from brands such as Miss Me, Rock Revival, KanCan, Flying Monkey, and Levi's. The company also incorporates services such as hemming, gift wrapping, layaways, a guest loyalty program, the Buckle private label credit card, personalized stylist services, and an order system that allows stores to obtain specifically requested merchandise from other the company stores or from the company's online order fulfillment center.

Citi Trends Inc.

Citi Trends is a retailer of fashion apparel and accessories for the entire family. The company also provides a variety of products from less recognized brands and a lesser amount representing private label products under its brands. The company's merchandise includes apparel, accessories and home. Within apparel, the company provides fashion sportswear for men, women and children, including offerings for newborns, infants, toddlers, boys and girls. Accessories include handbags, jewelry, footwear, belts, intimate apparel, scrubs and sleepwear. Home includes functional bedroom, bathroom and kitchen products, as well as beauty and toys.

Everest Re Group Ltd.

Everest Re Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company underwrites reinsurance and insurance in the United States, Bermuda and international markets. The company's segments are: U.S. Reinsurance, which writes property and casualty reinsurance and specialty lines of business, including Marine, Aviation, Surety and Accident and Health business; International, which focuses on the international reinsurance markets; Bermuda, which writes property and casualty reinsurance and property and casualty reinsurance; and Insurance, which writes property and casualty insurance through agents, wholesale and retail brokers and surplus lines brokers in the United States, Canada, Ireland, Bermuda.

Gap Inc.

The Gap is an apparel retail company. The company provides apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix, and Hill City brands. The company has stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mexico, and has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic stores throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Under these agreements, third parties operate stores that sell apparel and related products under the company's brand names.

Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. Class A

Guess? Inc.

GUESS? designs, markets, distributes and licenses collections of apparel and accessories for men, women and children. The lines include collections of clothing, including jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, knitwear and intimate apparel. In addition, the company selectively grants licenses to design, manufacture and distribute a range of products that complement its apparel lines, including eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry and other fashion accessories. The company's businesses are grouped into five reportable segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia and Licensing.

Reinsurance Group of America Incorporated

Reinsurance Group of America is an insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of life and health reinsurance and financial solutions. The company is engaged in providing reinsurance, which includes individual and group life and health, disability, and critical illness reinsurance. The company also provides financial solutions, which includes longevity reinsurance, asset-intensive products, primarily annuities, financial reinsurance, capital solutions and stable value products. The company has five geographic-based and business-based operational segments: United States and Latin America, Canada, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, and Corporate and Other.

RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD.

RenaissanceRe Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global provider of reinsurance and insurance. The company's segments are: Property, which includes its catastrophe class of business, comprising excess of loss reinsurance and excess of loss retrocessional reinsurance to insure insurance and reinsurance companies against natural and man-made catastrophes, and its other property class of business, comprising proportional reinsurance, property per risk, property (re)insurance, binding facilities and regional United States multi-line reinsurance; and Casualty and Specialty, in which the company provides its casualty and specialty reinsurance products and excess of loss coverage.

SiriusPoint Ltd

Tillys

Tilly's is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories for young men, young women, boys and girls. The company's stores are located in malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, community centers, outlet centers and street-front locations. Customers may also shop online, where the company features the same assortment of product as is carried in its stores, supplemented by additional online-only styles. The company provides a mix of merchandise for young men, young women, boys and girls across the apparel, footwear and accessories categories. The company's apparel merchandise includes branded, fashion, and core styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses.

Urban Jakarta Propertindo

Urban Jakarta Propertindo Tbk PT Formerly known as Urban Jakarta Propertindo PT. PT Urban Jakarta Propertindo Tbk is an Indonesia based company primarily engaged in property development and management.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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