Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Rolling Over

Large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs. Mid-caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) are starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps, and are likely to break out from their 2.5-month consolidations/high bases. The fact that small-cap indexes have simply been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, is a healthy sign, and they could be gearing-up for another similar move higher. We also continue to see signs of the U.S. dollar (DXY) rolling over, and some early signs of weakness in 10- and 30-year Treasury yields as well; a continued move lower in the DXY and yields should allow equities to move higher. Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact.

U.S. Dollar (DXY), 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields. In last week's Compass (2/24/24) we discussed how the U.S. dollar (DXY) appeared to be staging a false breakout at the important $104.60-$104.70 level, which is a bearish development for the DXY. The DXY is now violating its YTD uptrend and breaking below the important $103.80 short-term support level. The whole YTD rally in the DXY could now be viewed as a bear flag breakdown, implying another trip to $101, and likely lower ($99). Additionally, the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields show early signs of rolling over at major resistances of 4.35% and 4.50%. If the DXY moves toward $101 and $99 as we expect, and long-term Treasury yields roll over, it will be a huge risk-on signal for U.S. and global equities... see chart below and page 3.
S&P 500. The S&P 500 created a breakaway gap last Thursday (2/22) following NVDA's earnings; as long as this gap remains unfilled (from 5040 to 4983), it signals upside power in favor of the bulls. We expect 5040 to be a strong support level.
More Bullish Dynamics. The equal-weighted Discretionary vs. Staples ratio just hit new 2+ year highs. Micro-Caps (IWC) display a bullish 2-year reversal. Discretionary (XLY) and Materials (XLB) display 1-2-year base breakouts. Smid-cap biotechnology (XBI) is hitting 2+ year highs. Defensives (XLP, XLU) continue to underperform. U.S. high yield spreads are at new 2-year narrows. This is all indicative of a strong bull market..
Underlyings
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A

Abercrombie & Fitch, through its subsidiaries, is a retailer which primarily sells its products through its wholly-owned store and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as through various third-party wholesale, franchise and licensing arrangements. The company provides an assortment of apparel, personal care products and accessories for men, women and children under the Hollister, Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands. The company has operations in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The company's operating segments are brand-based: Hollister and Abercrombie, the latter of which includes the company's Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc.

American Eagle Outfitters is a multi-brand retailer. The company operates retail stores and online at www.ae.com and www.aerie.com. The company provides a range of apparel and accessories for men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters brand, and intimates, apparel and personal care products for women under the Aerie brand. The company operates stores in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, and China. The company also has license agreements with third-parties to operate American Eagle Outfitters and Aerie stores throughout Asia, Europe, India, Latin America and the Middle East. The company also operates two other brands, Tailgate, a vintage, sports-inspired apparel brand, and Todd Snyder New York, a menswear brand.

Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc. Class A

Amneal Pharmaceuticals is a holding companies. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a pharmaceutical company enganged in developing, manufacturing, marketing and distributing pharmaceutical products in a variety of dosage forms and therapeutic categories. The company's pharmaceutical research includes analytical and formulation development and stability. The company has two business segments: Generics, which products are sold either as branded or generic products; and Specialty, which is engaged in the development, promotion, sale and distribution of proprietary branded pharmaceutical products, with a focus on products addressing central nervous system disorders, including migraine and Parkinson's disease.

Gap Inc.

The Gap is an apparel retail company. The company provides apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix, and Hill City brands. The company has stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mexico, and has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic stores throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Under these agreements, third parties operate stores that sell apparel and related products under the company's brand names.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc

Hilton Worldwide Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in hospitality with operations organized in two operating segments: management and franchise, which includes all of the hotels the company manages for third-party owners, as well as all franchised hotels operated or managed by someone other than the company; and Ownership, which includes hotels that the company owned or leased or that are owned or leased by entities in which the company owns a noncontrolling financial interest. Hilton Honors is the company's guest loyalty program that rewards guests with points for each stay at nearly all of its properties, which are then redeemable for free nights and other goods and services.

Huazhu Group Ltd. Sponsored ADR

Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A

Hyatt Hotels is a hospitality company engaged in the development, ownership, operation, management, franchising, licensing or provision of services to a portfolio of properties, consisting of full service hotels, select service hotels, resorts, and other properties, including spas and fitness studios, timeshare, fractional, and other forms of residential and vacation properties. The company also manages, provides services to, or licenses its trademarks with respect to residential ownership units that are often adjacent to a Hyatt-branded hotel. Additionally, for condominium ownership units, the company provides services and/or manage the rental programs or homeowner associations associated with such units.

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP

Marriott International Inc. Class A

Marriott International is a worldwide operator, franchisor, and licensor of hotel, residential and timeshare properties under various brand names at different price and service points. The company has operations in the following reportable business segments: North American Full-Service, which includes the company's Luxury and Premium properties located in United States and Canada; North American Limited-Service, which includes the company's Select properties located in United States and Canada; and Asia Pacific, which includes all properties in the company's Asia Pacific region.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a vacation company that provides vacation ownership, exchange, rental and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services. The company's reportable segments are; Vacation Ownership, which develops, markets, sells, rents and manages vacation ownership and related products under its licensed brands; and Exchange and Third-Party Management, which includes exchange networks and membership programs comprised of exchange, getaways, interval gold and interval platinum, club interval, sales and marketing support for interval international network resorts, and operational support for interval international network resorts.

Rocky Brands

Rocky Brands is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of footwear and apparel marketed under a portfolio of brand names including Rocky, Georgia Boot, Durango, Lehigh, and the licensed brand Michelin. The company's products are distributed through three business segments: wholesale, retail and military. In its wholesale business, the company distributes its products through a range of distribution channels representing retail store locations. The company's retail business includes direct sales of its products to consumers through its business to business web platform, e-commerce websites and its Rocky outlet store. The company also sells footwear under the Rocky label to the United States military.

Steven Madden Ltd.

Steven Madden designs, sources, markets and sells name brand and private label footwear for women, men and children and name brand and private label handbags and accessories. The company licenses its trademarks for use in connection with the manufacturing, marketing and sale of various products by third party licensees. The company's products are marketed through its retail stores and its e-commerce websites within the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the company's joint ventures in South Africa, China, Taiwan and Israel, as well as department stores, specialty stores, retailers, national chains, mass merchants, online retailers and catalog retailers throughout the U.S., Canada, Mexico, certain European nations and Tunisia.

Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.

Taro Pharmaceutical Industries is engaged as a multinational, science-based pharmaceutical company. Co. develops, manufactures and markets prescription and OTC pharmaceutical products primarily in the United States, Canada and Israel. Co.'s primary areas of focus include semi-solids formulations such as creams and ointments and other dosage forms such as liquids, capsules and tablets, mainly in the dermatological and topical, cardiovascular, neuropsychiatric and anti-inflammatory therapeutic categories. Co. operates principally through three entities: Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. ("Taro Israel"), and two of its subsidiaries (including indirect), Taro Canada and Taro U.S.A.

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited Sponsored ADR

Viatris Inc.

Weyco Group Inc.

Weyco Group is engaged in one line of business: the design and distribution of footwear. The company designs and markets footwear principally for men, but also for women and children, under a portfolio of brand names including: Florsheim, Nunn Bush, Stacy Adams, BOGS, and Rafters. The company's products consist primarily of mid-priced leather dress shoes and casual footwear composed of man-made materials or leather. The company's footwear is available in a range of sizes and widths. In the company's wholesale segment, its products are sold to footwear, department and specialty stores, primarily in the U.S. and Canada. The company's retail segment consisted of brick and mortar retail stores and internet businesses in the U.S.

Wolverine World Wide Inc.

Wolverine World Wide is a designer, marketer and licensor of a range of casual footwear and apparel, performance outdoor and athletic footwear and apparel, kids' footwear, industrial work boots and apparel, and uniform shoes and boots. The company has two segments: Wolverine Michigan Group, consisting of Merrell? footwear and apparel, Cat? footwear, Wolverine? footwear and apparel, Chaco? footwear, Hush Puppies? footwear and apparel, Bates? uniform footwear, Harley-Davidson? footwear and Hytest? safety footwear; and Wolverine Boston Group, consisting of Sperry? footwear and apparel, Saucony? footwear and apparel, Keds? footwear and apparel, and the Kids footwear business.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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