Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.69 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Violating YTD Uptrend
Signs continue to point to the formation of a new uptrend on the S&P 500, something we have
discussed as our expectation on a weekly basis since late-April (4/30/24 Compass). Shorterterm, both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are trading/consolidating within 1.5-2 week bull
flag patterns, and we are on the lookout for upside breakouts due to ongoing healthy market
dynamics. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact.
• S&P 500, Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100. Since our 5/21/24 Compass we discussed the bullish implications of the three upside gaps that occurred in May, noting to expect short-term
support at these gaps from May 15th, May 6th, and May 3rd at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and
5073-5101, respectively. The S&P 500 filled the initial gap at 5250-5263 last week, and this
area acted as support in conjunction with the 20-day MA, 21-day EMA, and 2-week bull flag
pattern. Important supports moving forward continue to be at the 20-day MA/21
Underlyings
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A

Abercrombie & Fitch, through its subsidiaries, is a retailer which primarily sells its products through its wholly-owned store and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as through various third-party wholesale, franchise and licensing arrangements. The company provides an assortment of apparel, personal care products and accessories for men, women and children under the Hollister, Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands. The company has operations in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The company's operating segments are brand-based: Hollister and Abercrombie, the latter of which includes the company's Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc.

American Eagle Outfitters is a multi-brand retailer. The company operates retail stores and online at www.ae.com and www.aerie.com. The company provides a range of apparel and accessories for men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters brand, and intimates, apparel and personal care products for women under the Aerie brand. The company operates stores in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, and China. The company also has license agreements with third-parties to operate American Eagle Outfitters and Aerie stores throughout Asia, Europe, India, Latin America and the Middle East. The company also operates two other brands, Tailgate, a vintage, sports-inspired apparel brand, and Todd Snyder New York, a menswear brand.

ARCADIS N.V.

Argan Inc.

Argan is a holding company. The company conducts operations through its subsidiaries: Gemma Power Systems, LLC, which is an engineering, procurement and construction contractor; Atlantic Projects Company Limited, which provides turbine, boiler and rotating equipment installation, commissioning and outage services; The Roberts Company, Inc., which provides on-site services that support maintenance, shutdowns and emergency mobilizations for industrial plants in the southern region of the U.S.; and Southern Maryland Cable, Inc., which conducts business as SMC Infrastructure Solutions, and provides technology wiring and utility construction solutions to customers in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.

Boot Barn Holdings

Boot Barn Holdings is a retail chain focused on western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories. The company's stores, which are freestanding or located in strip centers, feature an assortment of brands and styles, coupled with store associates. The company's product offering is anchored by a selection of western and work boots and an assortment of coordinating apparel and accessories. The company also carries assortments of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry and accessories. The company's work assortment includes footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts for the physically demanding jobs.

BrightView Holdings

BrightView is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of commercial landscaping services. The company operates through two segments: Maintenance Services and Development Services. The company's maintenance services segment delivers a suite of recurring commercial landscaping services ranging from mowing, gardening, mulching and snow removal, to more horticulture services, such as water management, irrigation maintenance, tree care, golf course maintenance and turf maintenance. The company's development services are comprised of design, coordination and installation of landscapes at some of the corporate, athletic and university complexes.

BURLINGTON STORES INC.

Burlington Stores is a holding company. Through its indirect subsidiary, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation sells merchandise including: women's ready-to-wear apparel, accessories, footwear, menswear, youth apparel, baby, home, coats, beauty, toys and gifts. The company operates stores under the names Burlington Stores, Cohoes Fashions, Super Baby Depot, MJM Designer Shoes and an online store. Cohoes Fashions provides products similar to those offered by Burlington Stores. MJM Designer Shoes provides moderately priced designer and fashion shoes. The Super Baby Depot stores provides baby clothing, accessories, furniture and other merchandise in the middle to higher price range.

BWX Technologies Inc.

BWX Technologies is a manufacturer of nuclear components, a developer of nuclear technologies and a service provider. The company operates three segments: Nuclear Operations Group, which engineers, designs and manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactors and nuclear fuel for the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program; Nuclear Services Group, which provides services including nuclear materials processing and management and operating services; and Nuclear Power Group, which designs and manufactures commercial nuclear steam generators, heat exchangers, pressure vessels, reactor components and other auxiliary equipment.

Caleres Inc.

Caleres is a footwear retailer and wholesaler. The company is engaged in the operation of retail shoe stores and e-commerce websites as well as the design, sourcing and marketing of footwear for women, men and children. The company's Famous Footwear segment includes its Famous Footwear stores, which features a selection of athletic, casual and dress shoes for the entire family. The company's Brand Portfolio segment provides retailers and consumers a portfolio of brands by designing, sourcing and marketing footwear for women and men at a variety of price points. The company's Brand Portfolio segment sells footwear on a wholesale basis to retailers as well as through its branded retail stores and e-commerce businesses.

Construction Partners

Construction Partners is a holding company. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, the company provides a variety of products and services to infrastructure projects, with a focus on highways, roads, bridges, airports, and commercial and residential sites. The company's primary operations consist of manufacturing and distributing hot mix asphalt (HMA), paving activities, including the construction of roadway base layers and application of asphalt pavement, site development, including the installation of utility and drainage systems, mining aggregates, such as sand and gravel, that are used as raw materials in the production of HMA, and distributing liquid asphalt cement in connection with HMA production.

Designer Brands Inc. Class A

Designer Brands is a footwear and accessories designer, producer and retailer. The company has three segments: U.S. Retail, which includes stores operated in the U.S. under the DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse banner and its related e-commerce site; Canada Retail, which includes stores operated in Canada under The Shoe Company, Shoe Warehouse, and DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse banners and related e-commerce sites; and Brand Portfolio, which includes sales from wholesale, serving retailers as the design and buying agent for products under private labels, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce sites. The company separates its merchandise into three categories: women's footwear; men's footwear; and accessories and other.

Dycom Industries Inc.

Dycom Industries is a provider of specialty contracting services. The company supplies telecommunications providers with a portfolio of specialty services, including program management; planning; engineering and design; aerial, underground, and wireless construction; maintenance; and fulfillment services for telecommunications providers. Additionally, the company provides underground facility locating services for various utilities, including telecommunications providers, and other construction and maintenance services for electric and gas utilities. The company supplies the labor, tools, and equipment necessary to provide these services to its customers.

Fluor Corporation

Fluor is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, operations, maintenance and asset integrity, as well as project management services. The company serves a set of industries including oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, mining and metals, transportation, power, life sciences and manufacturing. The company is also a service provider to the U.S. federal government and governments abroad; and it performs operations, maintenance and asset integrity activities for industrial clients. The company has four segments: Energy & Chemicals; Mining, Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Diversified Services; and Government.

Gap Inc.

The Gap is an apparel retail company. The company provides apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix, and Hill City brands. The company has stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mexico, and has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic stores throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Under these agreements, third parties operate stores that sell apparel and related products under the company's brand names.

Granite Construction Incorporated

Granite Construction is a holding company, which delivers infrastructure solutions for public and private clients. The company's segments are: Transportation, which focuses on construction and rehabilitation of roads, pavement preservation, bridges, rail lines, airports and marine ports; Water, which focuses on water-related construction and water management solutions; Specialty, which focuses on construction of various complex projects including infrastructure/site development, mining, public safety, tunnel and power projects; and Materials, which focuses on production of aggregates, asphalt and construction related materials as well as proprietary sanitary and storm water rehabilitation products.

IES Holdings Inc.

IES Holdings is a holding company. The company has four business segments: Commercial & Industrial, which provides electrical and mechanical design, construction, and maintenance services to the commercial and industrial markets in various regional markets and nationwide in certain areas such as the power infrastructure market; Communications, which provides technology infrastructure services to corporations and independent businesses; Infrastructure Solutions, which provides electro-mechanical solutions for industrial operations; and Residential, which provides electrical installation services for single-family housing and multi-family apartment complexes.

MYR Group Inc.

MYR Group is a holding company of electrical construction service providers. Through its subsidiaries, the company serves the electric utility infrastructure, commercial and industrial construction markets located throughout the U.S. and Canada. The company manages its operations through two segments: Transmission and Distribution, which provides services on electric transmission and distribution networks and substation facilities; and Commercial and Industrial, which provides services such as the design, installation, maintenance and repair of commercial and industrial wiring, installation of traffic networks and the installation of bridge, roadway and tunnel lighting.

Orion Group Holdings

Orion Group Holdings is a construction company in the building, industrial, and infrastructure sectors in the continental U.S., Alaska, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin. The company operates in two segments: marine, which operates under the Orion Marine Group brand and logo; and concrete, which operates under the TAS Commercial Concrete brand and logo. The company's marine construction services include construction, restoration, dredging, maintenance and repair of marine transportation facilities, marine pipelines, bridges and causeways, and marine environmental structures. The concrete segment provides its services in the following areas: light commercial, structural, and other services.

PRIME ENERGY P.E. LTD

Rosinter Restaurants Holding Ord Shs

Rosinter Restorants Holding PAO (Rosinter Restaurants Holding PJSC) is a Russia-based company engaged in the operation of restaurant. The Company offers Italian, Japanese, American and local Russian cuisine. It operates IL Patio pizza pasta grill, Planet Sushi, American Bar and Grill, Cafe Des Artistes, Pechki-Lavochki and 1-2-3 Cafe, as well as T.G.I. Friday's and Costa Coffee. Operations are carried out in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. The Company operates through numerous subsidiaries and affiliated companies located domestically, as well as abroad. On September 4, 2014, the Company sold 51% stake in Rosinter Restaurants Samara ZAO to Restorannaya Ob'yedinennaya Set' i Noveyshiye Tekhnologii Evroamerikanskogo Razvitiya Restorants OOO.

Shoe Carnival Inc.

Shoe Carnival is a family footwear retailers. The company provides customers a a range of dress, casual and athletic footwear for men, women and children with an emphasis on national name brands. The company operates stores in the states and Puerto Rico and provides online shopping at www.shoecarnival.com. The company's stores carry complementary accessories such as socks, belts, shoe care items, handbags, sport bags, backpacks, scarves and wallets, while its e-commerce site provides certain handbags, sport bags and backpacks. Women's, men's and children's non-athletic footwear categories are further divided into dress, casual, sport, sandals and boots.

Sterling Construction Company Inc.

Sterling Construction is a construction company that focuses in heavy civil construction and infrastructure rehabilitation as well as residential construction projects. The company operates primarily in Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas and Utah, as well as other states. The company's heavy civil construction projects include highways, roads, bridges, airfields, ports, light rail, water, wastewater and storm drainage systems, foundations for multi-family homes, commercial concrete projects and parking structures. Residential construction projects include concrete foundations for single-family homes.

Tan Dai Hung Plastic

Tan Dai Hung Plastic Joint Stock Company is a Vietnam-based company engaged in the manufacture of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) woven bags for packaging rice, fertilizer, animal food and other agricultural products. Its mainstream products include PP woven shopping bags laminated with printed oriented PP (OPP) film, inside or outside laminated PP woven bags, PP woven bags inserted with PE liner, PP bags printed on two sides with seven colors, Raschel bags, Leno bags, big bags, box bags, Geotextile fabric, ground cover fabric, silt fence fabric and others. The Company is also involved in the trading of materials and machinery used in the plastic industry.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

Willdan Group

Willdan Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of technical and consulting services to utilities, private industry, and public agencies of government. The company provides services in two segments: Energy, which services include surveys, program design, master planning, benchmarking analyses, design engineering, construction management, performance contracting, installation, alternative financing, and measurement and verification services; and Engineering and Consulting, which provides civil engineering-related construction management, building and safety, city engineering, city planning, geotechnical, and other engineering consulting services to the company's clients.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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