Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Lockout Rally Continues; Breakouts Piling Up

Since our 11/21/23 Compass we have discussed on a weekly basis that even a minor 2-5% pullback is far from a guarantee, considering "breakaway gaps" and what appeared to be an ongoing "lockout rally," while also discussing that we would be buyers if a pullback did happen. All we got was a 1% peak to trough decline in the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) pulled back 2.9% (though left the 11/14/23 gap unfilled). Now, the SPX and QQQ are breaking out yet again after a multi-week consolidation period, including the SPX breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607. This has all the hallmarks of a strong market, and there is no reason to fight it. We remain bullish, and we continue to expect more upside into early-2024.

Breakouts Piling Up. The S&P 500 is breaking above 2-year resistance at 4600-4607, and the Nasdaq Composite is breaking above 5-month resistance at 14,400 -- this is bullish and fits with our expectations for more upside. While we do not expect these breakouts to fail, we would be on the lookout for false breakouts, which would be confirmed on breakdowns below 4600 and 14,400. If that were to happen, it would be a signal that the trend is likely changing, and we would take profits. Europe's EURO STOXX 50 index is also breaking above 2+ year resistance at 4400-4415, yet another bullish sign... see charts below.
Big Picture Trends. Short-term resistance on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is at $190, but at this point we are expecting the IWM rally to continue and likely test 1.5+ year resistance at $197-198; the only thing that would make us think otherwise is a break below $180 support. Equal-weighted Technology (RSPT) displays a 2-year breakout, and RS displays a major 3-year bullish inflection -- add exposure/remain overweight. Financials (XLF) are breaking above 1.5-year resistance at $36. The S&P Bank ETF (KBE) is testing $42.50-$43.50 resistance, while smaller-cap Regional Banks (KRE) remain below resistance at $49.50 (though testing this level now). The 10-year Treasury yield remains in a 1.5-month downtrend; as long as it remains below 4.35%-4.4% resistance, we view it as a risk-on signal. The U.S. dollar (DXY) has stabilized a bit, but it has not even been able to get above short-term resistance at $104.50-$105. Ultimately, we view the DXY as a risk-on signal as long as it is below $106... see pages 3-5.
Underlyings
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A

Abercrombie & Fitch, through its subsidiaries, is a retailer which primarily sells its products through its wholly-owned store and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as through various third-party wholesale, franchise and licensing arrangements. The company provides an assortment of apparel, personal care products and accessories for men, women and children under the Hollister, Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands. The company has operations in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The company's operating segments are brand-based: Hollister and Abercrombie, the latter of which includes the company's Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc.

American Eagle Outfitters is a multi-brand retailer. The company operates retail stores and online at www.ae.com and www.aerie.com. The company provides a range of apparel and accessories for men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters brand, and intimates, apparel and personal care products for women under the Aerie brand. The company operates stores in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, and China. The company also has license agreements with third-parties to operate American Eagle Outfitters and Aerie stores throughout Asia, Europe, India, Latin America and the Middle East. The company also operates two other brands, Tailgate, a vintage, sports-inspired apparel brand, and Todd Snyder New York, a menswear brand.

AN2 THERAPEUTICS INC

Applied Therapeutics

Applied Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing a pipeline of product candidates against validated molecular targets in indications of unmet medical need. The company's main product candidate, AT-007, is a central nervous system, penetrant AR inhibitor (ARI) that the company is developing for the treatment of galactosemia, a rare pediatric metabolic disease that affects how the body processes a simple sugar called galactose. The company's second product candidate, AT-001, is an ARI with systemic exposure and peripheral nerve permeability that the company is developing for the treatment of diabetic cardiomyopathy, a fatal fibrosis of the heart.

Armstrong World Industries Inc.

Armstrong World Industries is a producer of ceiling systems for use primarily in the construction and renovation of commercial and residential buildings. The company designs, manufactures and sells ceiling systems (primarily mineral fiber, fiberglass wool and metal). The company's segments are: Mineral Fiber, which produces suspended mineral fiber and soft fiber ceiling systems for use in commercial and residential settings and includes its joint venture, Worthington Armstrong Venture, that manufactures suspension system (grid) products and ceiling component products; and Architectural Specialties, which produces and sources ceilings and walls for use in commercial settings.

Buckle Inc.

The Buckle is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women. The company markets a selection of mainly brand name casual apparel including denims, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories, and footwear. The company provides denims from brands such as Miss Me, Rock Revival, KanCan, Flying Monkey, and Levi's. The company also incorporates services such as hemming, gift wrapping, layaways, a guest loyalty program, the Buckle private label credit card, personalized stylist services, and an order system that allows stores to obtain specifically requested merchandise from other the company stores or from the company's online order fulfillment center.

Builders FirstSource Inc.

Builders FirstSource, through its subsidiaries is a supplier and manufacturer of building materials, manufactured components and construction services to homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers and consumers. The company provides a solution to its customers providing manufacturing, supply and installation of structural and related building products. The company's manufactured products include factory-built roof and floor trusses, and wall panels and stairs. The company also assembles interior and exterior doors into pre-hung units. Additionally, the company supplies its customers with building products not manufactured by the company, such as dimensional lumber and lumber sheet goods and various window, door and millwork lines.

Carnival Corporation

Carnival PLC

G1 Therapeutics

G1 Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of patients with cancer. The company's product pipeline includes three clinical candidates: trilaciclib, a short-acting intravenous cyclin-dependent kinases (CDK) 4/6 inhibitor that preserves hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells and immune system function; lerociclib, an oral CDK4/6 inhibitor that inhibits tumor proliferation and growth; and G1T48, an oral selective estrogen receptor degrader that inhibits estrogen receptor driven tumor proliferation.

Gap Inc.

The Gap is an apparel retail company. The company provides apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix, and Hill City brands. The company has stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mexico, and has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic stores throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Under these agreements, third parties operate stores that sell apparel and related products under the company's brand names.

GYRE THERAPEUTICS INC

Installed Building Products Inc.

Installed Building Products is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company primarily install insulation, waterproofing, fire-stopping, fireproofing, garage doors, rain gutters, window blinds, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors and other products for residential and commercial builders located in the continental U.S. The company provides its portfolio of services for new and existing single-family and multi-family residential and commercial building projects from its national network of branch locations. The company provides a range of insulation materials, including: fiberglass and cellulose insulation, and spray foam insulation.

Masco Corporation

Masco designs, manufactures and distributes home improvement and building products. The company's Plumbing Products include faucets, showerheads, handheld showers, valves, bath hardware and accessories, bathing units, shower bases and enclosures and toilets. This segment also includes brass, copper and composite plumbing system components and other non-decorative plumbing products. The company's Decorative Architectural Products include cabinet and door hardware, functional hardware, wall plates, hook and hook rail products, and picture hanging accessories. This segment also includes decorative indoor and outdoor lighting fixtures, ceiling fans, landscape lighting and LED lighting systems.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

OWENS CORNING INC

Owens Corning is engaged in manufacturing and delivering a range of insulation, roofing, and fiberglass composite materials. The company's Composites segment includes vertically integrated downstream activities. The company manufactures, fabricates and sells glass reinforcements in the form of fiber. The company's Insulation segment includes a portfolio of high, mid and low-temperature products with a geographic mix of United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America, a market mix of residential, commercial, industrial and other markets, and a channel mix of retail, contractor and distribution. The company's products in the Roofing segment are laminate and strip asphalt roofing shingles.

PEPGEN INC

PULSE BIOSCIENCES

Pulse Biosciences is a bioelectric medicine company. The company is pursuing regulatory clearance to market CellFX? System (CellFX). The CellFX System utilizes its Nano-Pulse Stimulation? (NPS) technology to treat various applications for which an optimal solution remains unfulfilled. NPS is a proprietary technology that delivers nanosecond duration pulses of high amplitude electrical energy to non-thermally clear targeted cells while sparing adjacent non-cellular tissue. The company's CellFX System allows for the adjustment of four key treatment parameters: pulse duration, pulse amplitude, pulse frequency, and the number of pulses, depending on the target tissue, application and desired treatment outcome.

ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP

Simpson Manufacturing Co. Inc.

Simpson Manufacturing, through its subsidiary, designs, engineers and manufactures wood and concrete building construction products. The company's wood construction products are used in light-frame construction and include connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners and pre-fabricated lateral systems. The company's concrete construction products are used in concrete, masonry and steel construction and include adhesives, mechanical anchors, carbide drill bits, powder actuated tools, and fiber reinforced materials. The company also provides engineering services in support of some of its products and provides design and other software that facilitates the specification, selection and use of its products.

The AZEK Company

TopBuild Corp.

TopBuild is an installer and distributor of insulation and other building products to the construction industry. The company's products and services are primarily for residential new construction, commercial construction, and residential repair/remodel activity. The company operates in two segments: installation, which installs various insulation applications that include fiberglass batts and rolls, blown-in loose fill fiberglass, blown-in loose fill cellulose, and polyurethane spray foam; and distribution, which distributes insulation and other building products including rain gutters, fireplaces, closet shelving, and roofing materials through its Service Partners business.

UFP Industries Inc.

Universal Forest Products is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, manufactures and markets wood and wood-alternative products for national home centers and other retailers, structural lumber and other products for the manufactured housing industry, engineered wood components for residential and commercial construction, specialty wood packaging, components and packing materials for various industries, and customized interior fixtures used in a variety of retail and commercial structures. In addition, the company provides outdoor living products. The company also sells engineered wood components to this market, which include roof trusses, wall panels and engineered floor systems.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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