Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support

Our expectations since late September remain unchanged; equities are not yet out of the woods, but as long as the S&P 500 is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640. Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, as long as supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.

Downgrades. We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) to market weight, and we are downgrading Materials (XLB) to underweight. The 10-month RS uptrend on the XLY is breaking, while RS on the XLB is breaking below 3.5-year support... see pages 2-3.
Risk-On Signals. Financial markets continue to produce a plethora of risk-on signals, including: (1) Many supports ar
Underlyings
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Class A

Abercrombie & Fitch, through its subsidiaries, is a retailer which primarily sells its products through its wholly-owned store and direct-to-consumer channels, as well as through various third-party wholesale, franchise and licensing arrangements. The company provides an assortment of apparel, personal care products and accessories for men, women and children under the Hollister, Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands. The company has operations in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. The company's operating segments are brand-based: Hollister and Abercrombie, the latter of which includes the company's Abercrombie & Fitch and abercrombie kids brands.

Acadia Healthcare Company Inc.

Acadia Healthcare Company is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides behavioral healthcare services, with operations in the U.S. and the U.K. The company's U.S. facilities and services are divided into four categories: acute inpatient psychiatric facilities; specialty treatment facilities; residential treatment centers; and outpatient community-based services. In the U.K., the company provides inpatient services through facilities, including mental health hospitals, clinics, care homes, schools, colleges and children's homes. The company's U.K. facilities and services can be divided into the following categories: healthcare facilities, education and children's services, and adult care facilities.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc.

American Eagle Outfitters is a multi-brand retailer. The company operates retail stores and online at www.ae.com and www.aerie.com. The company provides a range of apparel and accessories for men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters brand, and intimates, apparel and personal care products for women under the Aerie brand. The company operates stores in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Hong Kong, and China. The company also has license agreements with third-parties to operate American Eagle Outfitters and Aerie stores throughout Asia, Europe, India, Latin America and the Middle East. The company also operates two other brands, Tailgate, a vintage, sports-inspired apparel brand, and Todd Snyder New York, a menswear brand.

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

Brookdale Senior Living is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operator of senior living communities. The company's Community offerings include: independent living, which is for middle to upper income seniors; assisted living and memory care, which provides housing and assistance to mid-acuity frail and elderly residents; and continuing care retirement, which provides living arrangements and services to accommodate various physical ability and health. Through its Health Care Services segment the company provides home health, hospice and outpatient therapy services, and education and wellness programs, to residents of its communities and to seniors living outside of its communities.

Buckle Inc.

The Buckle is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women. The company markets a selection of mainly brand name casual apparel including denims, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories, and footwear. The company provides denims from brands such as Miss Me, Rock Revival, KanCan, Flying Monkey, and Levi's. The company also incorporates services such as hemming, gift wrapping, layaways, a guest loyalty program, the Buckle private label credit card, personalized stylist services, and an order system that allows stores to obtain specifically requested merchandise from other the company stores or from the company's online order fulfillment center.

Citi Trends Inc.

Citi Trends is a retailer of fashion apparel and accessories for the entire family. The company also provides a variety of products from less recognized brands and a lesser amount representing private label products under its brands. The company's merchandise includes apparel, accessories and home. Within apparel, the company provides fashion sportswear for men, women and children, including offerings for newborns, infants, toddlers, boys and girls. Accessories include handbags, jewelry, footwear, belts, intimate apparel, scrubs and sleepwear. Home includes functional bedroom, bathroom and kitchen products, as well as beauty and toys.

Ensign Group Inc.

Ensign Group is a holding company. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company provides skilled nursing, senior living and rehabilitative services, as well as other ancillary businesses. In transitional and skilled services, the company provides short and long-term nursing care services for patients with chronic conditions, prolonged illness, and the elderly. The company's senior living companies provide residential accommodations, activities, meals, housekeeping and assistance in the activities of daily living to seniors who are independent or who require some support, but not the level of nursing care provided in a skilled nursing operation. The company's other business lines includes of mobile ancillary services.

Gap Inc.

The Gap is an apparel retail company. The company provides apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, Athleta, Intermix, and Hill City brands. The company has stores in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France, Ireland, Japan, Italy, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Mexico, and has franchise agreements with unaffiliated franchisees to operate Old Navy, Gap, and Banana Republic stores throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Under these agreements, third parties operate stores that sell apparel and related products under the company's brand names.

Guess? Inc.

GUESS? designs, markets, distributes and licenses collections of apparel and accessories for men, women and children. The lines include collections of clothing, including jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, knitwear and intimate apparel. In addition, the company selectively grants licenses to design, manufacture and distribute a range of products that complement its apparel lines, including eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry and other fashion accessories. The company's businesses are grouped into five reportable segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia and Licensing.

Molina Healthcare Inc.

Molina Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides managed healthcare services under the Medicaid and Medicare programs, and through the state insurance marketplaces. The company has two segments: Health Plans and Other. The company's health plans are operated by its respective wholly owned subsidiaries in those states, each of which is licensed as a health maintenance organization. The company's business includes: Medicaid, which provides health care and long-term care services and support to low-income Americans; and Medicare, which provides eligible persons age 65 and over and some disabled persons with a variety of hospital, medical insurance, and prescription drug benefits.

National Healthcare Corp.

National HealthCare is engaged in the operation of skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities and homecare programs. The company's business activities include providing sub-acute and post-acute skilled nursing care, intermediate nursing care, rehabilitative care, memory and Alzheimer's care, senior living services, and home health care services. The company has a non-controlling ownership interest in a hospice care business that services the company-owned health care centers and others. In addition, the company provides management services, accounting and financial services, as well as insurance services to third party operators of health care facilities.

Tillys

Tilly's is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories for young men, young women, boys and girls. The company's stores are located in malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, community centers, outlet centers and street-front locations. Customers may also shop online, where the company features the same assortment of product as is carried in its stores, supplemented by additional online-only styles. The company provides a mix of merchandise for young men, young women, boys and girls across the apparel, footwear and accessories categories. The company's apparel merchandise includes branded, fashion, and core styles for tops, outerwear, bottoms, and dresses.

Urban Outfitters Inc.

Urban Outfitters is engaged in the operation of a general consumer product retail and wholesale business selling to customers through various channels including retail locations, websites, catalogs and mobile applications. The company has two segments: Retail, which consists of its Anthropologie, Bhldn, Free People, Terrain and Urban Outfitters brands and its Food and Beverage division; and Wholesale, which designs, develops and markets young women's contemporary casual apparel, intimates, FP Movement activewear and shoes under the Free People brand, home goods, including gifts, tabletop and textiles, under the Anthropologie brand and the BDG apparel collection under the Urban Outfitters brand.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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