Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.65 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Energy To Overweight

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.

Upgrading Energy. We are upgrading Energy to overweight -- add exposure. Energy has been outperforming sharply over the past month-plus, and we have made several recent buy recommendations, starting with our August 31st Compass when WTI crude oil made a false breakdown at $66. Now, recent developments lead us to believe that Energy is likely to outperform moving forward: WTI crude oil is breaking above $77, and the RYE and XOP are breaking above $47.50 and $100, respectively... see charts below and page 2. Additionally, we view these breakouts as signs of improving risk appetites, which is bullish for the broad equity market.
US Dollar. The US dollar (DXY) broke above the $93.50-93.75 resistance level last week, but remains below longer-term resistance at $94.70-95; as long as the DXY is below $95, it is likely to be a risk-on signal for stocks.
Value, Small-Caps, Reopening Themes. Value and small-caps remain our favorite areas to add exposure following the bullish inflections in value vs. growth and small- vs. large-cap ratios. Reopening themes such as hotels/leisure/restaurants are also heating up and we see several buy opportunities. We expect small-caps, value, and reopening themes to play catch-up as long as the 10-year Treasury yield is above 1.38%. Actionable stocks highlighted include: HLT, SEAS, DRI, and PLAY... see pages 3-4.
S&P 500, Equal-Weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW). The S&P 500 has struggled since breaking below its 50-day MA, largely due to rising rates and an exodus from growth stocks (QQEW testing major support at $109). This is simply large-caps and growth mimicking the reversion that small-caps and value experienced after peaking in the March-May timeframe. We expect consolidation to continue on the S&P 500, and are watching for support at 4300-4305 followed by 4257, 4233, 4210, and 4164... see page 5.
Underlyings
Antero Resources Corporation

Antero Resources is an oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties. The company focuses on unconventional reservoirs, which can generally be characterized as fractured shale formations. The company's drilling operations are focused in the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale of the Appalachian Basin. The company's industry segments are: the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, NGLs, and oil; marketing of excess firm transportation capacity; and the gathering and processing of natural gas. All of the company's operations are conducted in the United States.

APA Corporation

Black Stone Minerals LP

Callon Petroleum

ChampionX Corporation

Cimarex Energy Co.

Cimarex Energy is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The company's operations are mainly located in Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. The company's operations are focused in two main areas: the Permian Basin and the Mid-Continent. The company's Permian Basin region encompasses west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The company's Mid-Continent region consists of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

Ciputra Development

Co. is engaged in property investment and real estate development and sale. Co.'s real estate projects include shopping centers, office spaces, hotels, housing developments, golf courses, residential communities, and apartments. Co. is also engaged in the development and sale of industrial estates in the following industries: mining, forestry, plantation, agriculture, and fishing.

CompuGroup Medical SE & Co. KGaA

Continental Resources Inc.

Continental Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas mainly in the North, South and East regions of the U.S. The North region consists of properties north of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River and includes North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken, and the Red River units. The South region includes all properties south of Nebraska and west of the Mississippi River including various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province and Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian Kingfisher areas of Oklahoma. The East region is comprised of undeveloped leasehold acreage east of the Mississippi River.

Darden Restaurants Inc.

Darden Restaurants is a restaurant company. The company owns and operates restaurants through subsidiaries in the U.S. and Canada under the Olive Garden?, LongHorn Steakhouse?, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen?, Yard House?, The Capital Grille?, Seasons 52?, Bahama Breeze?, and Eddie V's Prime Seafood? trademarks. The company has four reportable segments: Olive Garden; LongHorn Steakhouse; Fine Dining (which includes The Capital Grille and Eddie V's); and Other Business (which includes Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Yard House, Seasons 52, Bahama Breeze and results from its franchise operations).

Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc.

Dave & Buster's Entertainment is an owner and operator of entertainment and dining venues (stores) that operate under the name Dave & Buster's. The company's concept is to provide its customers the opportunity to Eat Drink Play and Watch all in one location for adults and families, while serving food and beverages. The company's Eat and Drink is provided through a menu of entrees and appetizers and a selection of non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. The company's Play and Watch offerings provide an assortment of entertainment attractions centered around playing games and watching live sports and other televised events.

Devon Energy Corporation

Devon Energy is an independent energy company engaged primarily in the exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's operations are concentrated in various onshore areas in United States. The company's areas of operation include Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Powder River Basin and the STACK development, located primarily in Oklahoma's Canadian, Kingfisher and Blaine counties.

Diamondback Energy Inc.

Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition, development, exploration and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company's activities are primarily focused on horizontal development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the larger Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

Dorchester Minerals L.P.

Dorchester Minerals is engaged in the acquisition, ownership and administration of Royalty Properties and Net Profits Interests (NPIs). The Royalty Properties consist of producing and nonproducing mineral, royalty, overriding royalty, net profits, and leasehold interests located in several counties and parishes in several states. The NPIs represent net profits overriding royalty interests in various properties owned by the operating partnership. The company's general partner is Dorchester Minerals Management LP, which is managed by its general partner, Dorchester Minerals Management GP LLC.

EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas primarily in main producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, The People's Republic of China, Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc

Hilton Worldwide Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in hospitality with operations organized in two operating segments: management and franchise, which includes all of the hotels the company manages for third-party owners, as well as all franchised hotels operated or managed by someone other than the company; and Ownership, which includes hotels that the company owned or leased or that are owned or leased by entities in which the company owns a noncontrolling financial interest. Hilton Honors is the company's guest loyalty program that rewards guests with points for each stay at nearly all of its properties, which are then redeemable for free nights and other goods and services.

Laredo Petroleum Inc.

Marathon Oil Corporation

Marathon Oil is an independent exploration and production company focused on the United States resource plays. The company also has international operations in Equatorial Guinea (E.G.). The company's segments are: United States, which explores for, produces and markets crude oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas in the United States; and International, which explores for, produces and markets crude oil and condensate, NGLs and natural gas outside of the United States as well as produces and markets products manufactured from natural gas, such as liquefied natural gas and methanol, in E.G.

Matador Resources Company

Matador Resources is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development, production and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources in the United States, with a focus on oil and natural gas shale and other unconventional plays. The company's operations are focused on the oil and liquids-rich portion of the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in the Delaware Basin in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. The company also operates in the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas and the Haynesville shale and Cotton Valley plays in Northwest Louisiana. Also, the company conducts midstream operations, through its midstream joint venture, San Mateo Midstream, LLC together with San Mateo Midstream II, LLC.

Murphy Oil Corporation

Murphy Oil is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The company explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids worldwide. The company's principal exploration and production activities are conducted in United States by wholly owned Murphy Exploration & Production Company - USA and its subsidiaries, in Canada by wholly-owned Murphy Oil Company Ltd. and its subsidiaries, and in Australia, Brazil, Brunei, Mexico and Vietnam by wholly-owned Murphy Exploration & Production Company - International and its subsidiaries. The company's hydrocarbon production is in United States, Canada and Brunei.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum has three reporting segments: oil and gas, which explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas; chemical, which mainly manufactures and markets basic chemicals (chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates and calcium chloride) and vinyls (vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride and ethylene); and marketing and midstream, which purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGL, natural gas, carbon dioxide and power.

PDC Energy Inc.

PDC Energy is an independent exploration and production company that acquires, explores and develops properties for the production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids with operations in the Wattenberg Field in Colorado and the Delaware Basin in Texas. The company's operations in the Wattenberg Field are focused in the horizontal Niobrara and Codell plays and its Delaware Basin operations are primarily focused in the Wolfcamp zones. The company is engaged in two operating segments: its oil and gas exploration and production segment and its gas marketing segment.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company

Pioneer Natural Resources is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production. The company explores for, develops and produces oil, Natural Gas Liquids and gas within the United States, with operations in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company's portfolio of resources are located in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp oil field.

Range Resources Corporation

Range Resources is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an independent natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil company, engaged in the exploration, development and acquisition of natural gas and oil properties, located in the Appalachian and North Louisiana regions of the United States, primarily in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania and the Lower Cotton Valley formation in Louisiana.

SeaWorld Entertainment Inc.

SeaWorld Entertainment is a holding company. The company, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment, Inc., owns and operates theme parks within the U.S. The company operates SeaWorld theme parks in Orlando, FL; San Antonio, TX; and San Diego, CA, and Busch Gardens theme parks in Tampa, FL, and Williamsburg, VA. The company operates water park attractions in Orlando, FL (Aquatica); San Antonio, TX (Aquatica); San Diego, CA (Aquatica); Tampa, FL (Adventure Island); and Williamsburg, VA (Water Country USA). The company also operates a reservations-only theme park in Orlando, FL (Discovery Cove) and a seasonal park in Langhorne, PA (Sesame Place).

SM Energy Company

SM Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. The company's operations are concentrated in the Midland Basin and South Texas.

Southwestern Energy Company

Southwestern Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an independent energy company engaged in exploration, development and production activities, including the related marketing of natural gas, oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) produced in its operations. The company's primary business is the exploration for, and production of, natural gas, oil and NGLs. The company's operations in northeast Pennsylvania are primarily focused on the unconventional natural gas reservoir known as the Marcellus Shale, and its operations in West Virginia and southwest Pennsylvania are focused on the Marcellus Shale, the Utica and the Upper Devonian unconventional natural gas, oil and NGL reservoirs.

Viper Energy Partners LP

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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