Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 48.04 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value

The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials (currently our favorite areas). Meanwhile, some of our big picture "lines in the sand" are being violated, including the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) tests critical support at $207.50-$208. Overall, we continue to see a mixed market where we want to be very selective and pick our spots.

Risk-On Signals. The market is sending several encouraging risk-on signals, including: (1) High yield spreads are hitting multi-month narrows. (2) Emerging markets (EEM) and Industrials (XLI) display bullish RS reversals. (3) Banks (KRE, KBE) are trading at all-time highs and display bullish RS reversals. (4) Energy (RYE) is breaking out to multi-year price and RS highs as WTI crude oil hits highs last seen in 2014. (5) The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields display major breakouts and are likely starting a significant move higher... see charts below and pages 3-4.
Risk-Off Signals. There are several concerning risk-off signals, including: (1) The Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is breaking below major support $134. (2) The Russell 2000 index (IWM) is testing critical support at $207.50-$208 and a breakdown is possible. (3) Defensive areas including Consumer Staples (XLP) and large-cap pharma (PPH) display bullish RS reversals. (4) The equal-weighted Discretionary vs. Staples ratio (RCD vs. RHS) appears to be violating major long-term support. (5) Retail (XRT) and apparel stocks show concerning topping patterns and are largely bearish. (6) Small-caps continue to underperform... see pages 5-7.
S&P 500 Testing Support; Nasdaq 100 Uptrend Violation. The S&P 500 has pulled back to critical support at the 100-day MA and 4495-4545 area. Should 4495 break, the next levels to watch include the 200-day MA (4421), 4330-4340, and 4257. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is violating a 16-month uptrend while the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) tests key support at $109... see page 8.
Underlyings
Antero Resources Corporation

Antero Resources is an oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties. The company focuses on unconventional reservoirs, which can generally be characterized as fractured shale formations. The company's drilling operations are focused in the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale of the Appalachian Basin. The company's industry segments are: the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, NGLs, and oil; marketing of excess firm transportation capacity; and the gathering and processing of natural gas. All of the company's operations are conducted in the United States.

APA Corporation

Baker Hughes Company Class A

Baker Hughes is an energy technology company. The company's segments are: Oilfield Services, which provides products and services for onshore and offshore operations ranging from drilling, evaluation, completion, production, and intervention; Oilfield Equipment, which provides products and services for the subsea, offshore surface and onshore operating environments; Turbomachinery and Processing Solutions, which provides equipment and related services for mechanical-drive, compression and power-generation applications; and Digital Solutions, which includes condition monitoring, industrial controls, non-destructive technologies, measurement, sensing, and pipeline solutions.

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation

Cabot Oil & Gas is an independent oil and gas company engaged in the development, exploitation, exploration and production of oil and gas properties. The company operates in one segment, natural gas and oil development, exploitation, exploration and production, in the continental United States. The company's operations are primarily concentrated in one unconventional play—the Marcellus Shale in northeast Pennsylvania.

Cenovus Energy Inc.

Cenovus Energy is in the business of development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids ("NGLs") in Canada with refining operations in the U.S. Co. operates in two business segments: Upstream, which includes Co.'s development and production of crude oil, NGLs in Canada, is organized into two operations: Oil sands and conventional; and Refining and Marketing, which is focused on the refining of crude oil products into petroleum and chemical products at two refineries located in the U.S. This segment also markets Co.'s crude oil and natural gas, as well as third-party purchases and sales of product.

CNO Financial Group Inc.

CNO Financial Group is a holding company for a group of insurance companies. The company's Bankers Life segment underwrites, markets and distributes Medicare supplement insurance, interest-sensitive life insurance, life insurance, fixed annuities and long-term care insurance products. The company's Washington National segment underwrites, markets and distributes supplemental health and life insurance to middle-income consumers at home and at the worksite. The company's Colonial Penn segment markets primarily graded benefit and simplified issue life insurance directly to customers in the senior middle-income market through television advertising, direct mail, the internet and telemarketing.

CONOCOPHILLIPS

ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company engaged in exploring for, producing, transporting and marketing crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's segments include: Alaska, which operates in Alaska; Lower 48, which operates in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico; Canada, which operates in Alberta and British Columbia; Europe and North Africa, which consists of operations and exploration activities in Norway, the United Kingdom and Libya; Asia Pacific and Middle East, which operates in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Qatar, and Timor-Leste; and Other International, which operates in Colombia, Chile and Argentina.

Continental Resources Inc.

Continental Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas mainly in the North, South and East regions of the U.S. The North region consists of properties north of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River and includes North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken, and the Red River units. The South region includes all properties south of Nebraska and west of the Mississippi River including various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province and Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian Kingfisher areas of Oklahoma. The East region is comprised of undeveloped leasehold acreage east of the Mississippi River.

Core Laboratories NV

Core Laboratories is a holding company. Co. is a provider of reservoir description, production enhancement and reservoir management services to the oil and gas industry. Co. has three segments: reservoir description, which encompasses the characterization of petroleum reservoir rock, fluid and gas samples; production enhancement, which includes products and services relating to reservoir well completions, perforations, stimulations and production; and reservoir management, which combines and integrates information from reservoir description and production enhancement services to increase production and improve recovery of oil and gas from its clients' reservoirs.

Devon Energy Corporation

Devon Energy is an independent energy company engaged primarily in the exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's operations are concentrated in various onshore areas in United States. The company's areas of operation include Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Powder River Basin and the STACK development, located primarily in Oklahoma's Canadian, Kingfisher and Blaine counties.

Diamondback Energy Inc.

Diamondback Energy is an independent oil and natural gas company focused on the acquisition, development, exploration and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company's activities are primarily focused on horizontal development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland Basin and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware Basin, both of which are part of the larger Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas primarily in main producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, The People's Republic of China, Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas.

FIRST TRUST NASDAQ-100 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX FUND

Halliburton Company

Halliburton assists its customers throughout the lifecycle of the reservoir, from locating hydrocarbons and managing geological data, to drilling and formation evaluation, well construction and completion and optimizing production throughout the life of the asset. The company's segments are: Completion and Production, which delivers cementing, stimulation, intervention, pressure control, specialty chemicals, artificial lift and completion products and services; and Drilling and Evaluation, which provides field and reservoir modeling, drilling, evaluation and wellbore placement solutions that enable customers to model, measure, drill and optimize their well construction activities.

Hess Corporation

Hess is a global exploration and production company engaged in exploration, development, production, transportation, purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL), and natural gas with production operations located primarily in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia and Denmark. The company's Midstream operating segment provides fee-based services, including gathering, compressing and processing natural gas and fractionating NGL; gathering, terminaling, loading and transporting crude oil and NGL; storing and terminaling propane, and water handling services primarily in the Bakken shale play in the Williston Basin area of North Dakota.

Imperial Oil Limited

Imperial Oil is an integrated oil company. Co. is active in all phases of the petroleum industry in Canada, including the exploration for, and production and sale of, crude oil and natural gas. In Canada, Co. is a producer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum refiner and a marketer of petroleum products. Co. is also a producer of petrochemicals. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had 1.57 billion barrels of oil-equivalent basis of net proved reserves, which consisted of 44.0 million barrels of liquids, 641.00 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 473.0 million barrels of synthetic oil, and 946.0 million barrels of bitumen.

Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1

iShares Micro-Cap ETF

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

Marathon Oil Corporation

Marathon Oil is an independent exploration and production company focused on the United States resource plays. The company also has international operations in Equatorial Guinea (E.G.). The company's segments are: United States, which explores for, produces and markets crude oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas in the United States; and International, which explores for, produces and markets crude oil and condensate, NGLs and natural gas outside of the United States as well as produces and markets products manufactured from natural gas, such as liquefied natural gas and methanol, in E.G.

Murphy Oil Corporation

Murphy Oil is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The company explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids worldwide. The company's principal exploration and production activities are conducted in United States by wholly owned Murphy Exploration & Production Company - USA and its subsidiaries, in Canada by wholly-owned Murphy Oil Company Ltd. and its subsidiaries, and in Australia, Brazil, Brunei, Mexico and Vietnam by wholly-owned Murphy Exploration & Production Company - International and its subsidiaries. The company's hydrocarbon production is in United States, Canada and Brunei.

NOV Inc.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum has three reporting segments: oil and gas, which explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas; chemical, which mainly manufactures and markets basic chemicals (chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates and calcium chloride) and vinyls (vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride and ethylene); and marketing and midstream, which purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGL, natural gas, carbon dioxide and power.

Ovintiv Inc

Encana is an energy producer that is focused on developing its multi-basin portfolio of oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas producing plays. The company's reportable segments are: Canadian Operations, which includes the exploration for, development of, and production of oil, NGLs, natural gas and other related activities within Canada; USA Operations, which includes the exploration for, development of, and production of natural gas, oil and NGLs and other related activities within the U.S.; and Market Optimization activities are managed by the Midstream, Marketing & Fundamentals team, which is primarily responsible for the sale of the company's proprietary production to third party customers.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company

Pioneer Natural Resources is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production. The company explores for, develops and produces oil, Natural Gas Liquids and gas within the United States, with operations in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company's portfolio of resources are located in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp oil field.

Rare Element Resources

Schlumberger NV

Schlumberger provides technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. The company has four segments: Reservoir Characterization, which consists of the principal technologies involved in finding and defining hydrocarbon resources; Drilling, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the drilling and positioning of oil and gas wells; Production, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the lifetime production of oil and gas reservoirs; and Cameron, which consists of the principal technologies involved in pressure and flow control for drilling and intervention rigs, oil and gas wells and production facilities.

Select Sector SPDR-Industrial

SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF

Spirax-Sarco Engineering PLC

Spirax-Sarco Engineering is an industrial engineering group. Co. operates in two businesses: Spirax Sarco, which is engaged in supplying solutions for the design, maintenance and provision of industrial and commercial steam systems; and Watson-Marlow, which is engaged in the design and manufacture of peristaltic pumps and associated fluid path technologies, with its pumps are suited for a range of applications from biotechnology processes that require sterility and precision to corrosive slurries typically seen in precious metal processing. Co.'s customers span a range of sectors from food and beverage processing, to water treatment plants and pharmaceutical research.

Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy is an energy company. Co.'s operations include oil sands development and upgrading, onshore and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Co.'s segments include: oil sands, which develop and produce synthetic crude oil and related products through the recovery and upgrading of bitumen; exploration and production, which include offshore activity, and the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and refining and marketing, which include the refining of crude oil products, and the distribution and marketing of these and other purchased products, as well as a lubricants plant.

Weatherford International Plc

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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