Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.02 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Large-Cap Growth Playing Catch-Up
Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to view any weakness as a buying opportunity. Our bullish outlook is supported by continued positive market dynamics and the fact that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are holding above key support levels.
· S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. Key support levels we are watching on the S&P 500 remain unchanged; immediate short-term support is in the 3630-3645 zone, with the next important support levels coming in at 3588 and 3550. As long as 3550 holds, we believe a bullish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate. As for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $302 is short-term support; if that fails to hold, $298 is the next big support level to watch.
· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Cap-weighted Technology and Services were the top-performing Sectors last week as large-cap growth played catch-up with cyclical value & small-caps. Three actionable ideas include Apple (AAPL), Shopify (SHOP), and PayPal (PYPL)... see chart below and pages 2-3.
· Positive Market Dynamics Persist. The cyclicals vs. staples ratio (RCD/RHS) is at new highs yet again; we would see this ratio inflect bearishly if the broad market about to go through a meaningful pullback. After basing for three years, bitcoin (BTC) is breaking above the 20,000 resistance level to all-time highs; this breakout for bitcoin tells us risk appetites remain strong, and is a bullish sign for the broad equity market... see page 4.
· What Do The Equity & Commodity Markets Say About The 10-Year Treasury Yield? The 10-year Treasury yield remains in a 4.5-month uptrend, but has been unable to break above horizontal resistance at the 0.96-0.97% level -- something has got to give. While we would not be surprised to see rates break lower, we believe a breakout above 0.97% is more likely. That's because the equity and commodity markets have been pointing to higher rates for some time... see page 5.
Underlyings
Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

Boyd Gaming Corporation

Boyd Gaming is a multi-jurisdictional gaming company. The company operates owned gaming entertainment properties in Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The company has three reportable business segments: Las Vegas Locals, which includes casinos that primarily serve the resident population of the Las Vegas metropolitan area; Downtown Las Vegas, focuses on gaming enthusiasts from Hawaii and tour and travel agents in Hawaii; and Midwest and South, which includes land-based casinos, dockside riverboat casinos, racinos and barge-based casinos. The company also operates a travel agency and a captive insurance company that underwrites travel-related insurance.

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

Brookdale Senior Living is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operator of senior living communities. The company's Community offerings include: independent living, which is for middle to upper income seniors; assisted living and memory care, which provides housing and assistance to mid-acuity frail and elderly residents; and continuing care retirement, which provides living arrangements and services to accommodate various physical ability and health. Through its Health Care Services segment the company provides home health, hospice and outpatient therapy services, and education and wellness programs, to residents of its communities and to seniors living outside of its communities.

Caesars Entertainment Inc

Capital Senior Living Corporation

Capital Senior Living is an operator of senior housing communities. The company provides senior living services, including independent living services, which are provided to seniors who do not yet need assistance, but who prefer the physical and psychological comfort of a residential community that provides health care and other services; assisted living services, which include personal care services, 24-hour staffing, support services, and supplemental services; and memory care services, which maintain programs and living accomodations for residents with certain forms of dementia. The company makes home care services available to clients at its senior housing communities through third-party providers.

Churchill Downs Incorporated

Churchill Downs is a racing, online wagering and gaming entertainment company. The company manages its operations through three reportable segments: Churchill Downs, Online Wagering, and Gaming. Churchill Downs includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing at Churchill Downs Racetrack and Derby City Gaming. Online Wagering includes the company's TwinSpires business and its online sports betting and iGaming business. Gaming includes casino properties and associated racetrack or jai alai facilities which support the casino license as applicable.

Daimler AG

Daimler provides a range of transportation products, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, and also financial services. Co. operates in five segments. Mercedes-Benz Cars sells passenger cars and off-road vehicles under the Mercedes-Benz brand and small cars under the smart brand. The Daimler Trucks distributes its trucks (Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner, FUSO, Western Star, Thomas Built Buses and BharatBenz). The vans of the Mercedes-Benz Vans segment are sold under the brand name Mercedes-Benz and Freightliner. Daimler Buses sells completely built-up buses (Mercedes-Benz and Setra). The Daimler Financial Services division supports sales of Co.'s automotive brands.

Ensign Group Inc.

Ensign Group is a holding company. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company provides skilled nursing, senior living and rehabilitative services, as well as other ancillary businesses. In transitional and skilled services, the company provides short and long-term nursing care services for patients with chronic conditions, prolonged illness, and the elderly. The company's senior living companies provide residential accommodations, activities, meals, housekeeping and assistance in the activities of daily living to seniors who are independent or who require some support, but not the level of nursing care provided in a skilled nursing operation. The company's other business lines includes of mobile ancillary services.

Ferrari NV

Five Star Senior Living Inc

Five Star Senior Living is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates senior living communities, including independent and assisted living communities and skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). The company's segments are: senior living communities, in which the company operates for its owns account or manages for the account of others independent living communities, assisted living communities and SNFs that are subject to centralized oversight and provides housing and services to elderly residents; and rehabilitation and wellness, which provides physical therapy services, including physical, occupational, speech and other therapy services, in the inpatient setting and in outpatient clinics.

Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor designs, manufactures, markets, and services a line of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln vehicles, as well as provides financial services through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company LLC. The company is engaged in electrification; mobility solutions, including self-driving services; and connected vehicle services. The company has three operating segments: Automotive, which includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories; Mobility, which includes its autonomous vehicles and its investment in mobility through Ford Smart Mobility LLC; and Ford Credit, which includes vehicle-related financing and leasing activities.

General Motors Company

General Motors designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts. The company also provides automotive financing services through its subsidiary, General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). GM Financial provides retail loan and lease lending across the credit spectrum. GM Financial provides commercial lending products to dealers including new and used vehicle inventory floorplan financing and dealer loans, which are loans to finance improvements to dealership facilities, to provide working capital, and to purchase and/or finance dealership real estate. Other commercial lending products include financing for parts and accessories, dealer fleets and storage centers.

Honda Motor ADS

International Game Technology PLC

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Las Vegas Sands is a developer of destination properties (Integrated Resorts) that feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, restaurants and other amenities. The company owns and operates Integrated Resorts in Asia and the United States. Through its ownership of Sands China Ltd., the company owns and operates properties including The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao. In Singapore, the company owns and operates the Marina Bay Sands. The company's Las Vegas Operating Properties includes The Venetian Resort Las Vegas and the Sands Expo Center.

MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts across the United States and in Macau. The company's segments include: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, which consists of casino resorts such as Bellagio, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM; Regional Operations, which consists of casino resorts such as MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage, Gold Strike Tunica, Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park; and MGM China, which owns and operates casino resorts and the related gaming subconcession and land concessions.

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.

Monarch Casino & Resort, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Golden Road Motor Inn, Inc., owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel/casino facility in Reno, NV (the Atlantis). The company's wholly owned subsidiaries, High Desert Sunshine, Inc., Golden East, Inc. and Golden North, Inc., each owns separate parcels of land located proximate to the Atlantis. The Atlantis includes casino space, guest rooms and suites, food outlets, espresso and pastry bars, a health spa and salon with an enclosed pool, retail outlets providing clothing and gift shop merchandise, a family entertainment center, and banquet, convention and meeting room space.

NISSAN MOTOR ADR

PayPal Holdings Inc

PayPal Holdings is a technology platform and digital payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. The company's combined payment solutions include its PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom and iZettle products and services. PayPal's payment solutions enable the company's customers to send and receive payments. PayPal helps merchants and consumers connect, transact, and complete payments, whether they are online, on a mobile device, in an app, or in person. The company provides proprietary payment solutions accepted by merchants that enable the completion of payments on the company's Payments Platform on behalf of its customers.

Penn National Gaming Inc.

Penn National Gaming is an owner and manager of gaming and racing facilities and video gaming terminal operations with a focus on slot machine entertainment. In addition, the company operates an interactive gaming division through its subsidiary, Penn Interactive Ventures, LLC. The company's segment's properties include Ameristar East Chicago, Hollywood Casino Bangor, 1st Jackpot Casino, Ameristar Vicksburg, Boomtown Biloxi, Boomtown Bossier City, Ameristar Black Hawk, Cactus Petes and Horseshu, Ameristar Council Bluffs, Argosy Casino Alton, Argosy Casino Riverside, Freehold Raceway, Retama Park Racetrack, Sam Houston Race Park and Valley Race Park, and Sanford-Orlando Kennel Club, among others.

Peugeot S.A. ADS

Red Rock Resorts Inc. Class A

Red Rock Resorts is a holding company that manages and owns an indirect equity interest in Station Casinos LLC (Station LLC), through which it conducts all of its operations. Station LLC is a gaming, development and management company that develops and operates casino and entertainment properties. Station LLC owns and operates gaming and entertainment facilities and casinos, providing slot machines, table games and hotel rooms in the Las Vegas regional market. Station LLC also manages Graton Resort & Casino in Sonoma County, California on behalf of a Native American tribe. The company holds an indirect equity interest in Station LLC through its ownership interest in Station Holdco LLC.

SHOPIFY INC.

Shopify provides a cloud-based commerce platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. Merchants use its software to run their business across all of their sales channels, including web, tablet and mobile storefronts, social media storefronts, and brick-and-mortar and pop-up shops. Co. provides a platform for merchants to create an omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchant's brand and grow its business. Co.'s platform provides merchants with a single view of their business and customers across all of their sales channels and enables them to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, build customer relationships and leverage analytics and reporting.

Stellantis N.V.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is an international automotive group engaged in designing, engineering, manufacturing, distributing and selling vehicles, components and production systems. Co. has operations in approx. 40 countries and sells its vehicles directly or through distributors and dealers in more than 140 countries. Co. designs, engineers, manufactures, distributes and sells vehicles for the mass market under the Abarth, Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Fiat Professional, Jeep, Lancia and Ram brands and the SRT performance vehicle designation.

Tata Motors Limited Sponsored ADR

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.

Toyota Motor ADS

Wynn Resorts Limited

Wynn Resorts is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, developer, and operator of resorts featuring hotel rooms, retail space, an array of dining and entertainment options, meeting and convention facilities, and gaming. Through its subsidiary, Wynn Macau, Limited, the company operates two integrated resorts in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau. In Las Vegas, NV, the company also operates and, with the exception of certain retail space, own Wynn Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor, an integrated resort in Everett, MA, adjacent to Boston.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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