Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 43.84 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Cautious Overall; Favor Large-Caps & Growth

We continue to see a mixed market, and weak market dynamics lead us to be cautious. One of the primary issues is weak breadth; the large-cap indexes (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) remain bullish despite being held up by a relatively small number of mega-cap growth stocks, a condition that can persist for weeks or months. Ultimately, as long as there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level we remain constructive overall.

S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish, recently hitting our 4400-4406 target as large-caps remain attractive. As long as support at the 50-day MA and 4257 holds, we expect to see 4460 followed by 4560. Should 4257 fail to hold we expect more sideways to downward price action, and our next support levels to watch would be 4233, 4164, and 4140; we are constructive as long as 4140 holds... see chart below.
Big Picture Trends. We recommend large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials)... see page 3.
Weak Market Dynamics. Small-caps continue to underperform, our cyclical value vs. defensives ratio displays a bearish inflection, high yield spreads are widening, the 10-year Treasury yield is below 1.40-1.45%, breadth is weak, and emerging markets (EEM) are breaking below critical $52 support while hitting 18+ year RS lows. These are all reasons for a more cautious outlook, but are still not enough to be bearish... see pages 3-4.
Support Levels Holding; Positive Market Dynamics. Despite the above concerns, the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $208 support, the S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA and 4257, the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) is above $109, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is above $146; as long as these support levels hold, we cannot be negative on the overall market. Additional positives: not one S&P 500 Sector is breaking down below long-term support, broad commodities (the Bloomberg Commodity Index) remain bullish, WTI crude oil is holding above $66, copper is bullishly inflecting, and the copper vs. gold ratio is holding above support... see page 5.
Underlyings
Apple Inc.

Apple designs, manufactures and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables and accessories, and sells a variety of related services. The company's products include: iPhone; Mac; iPad; and wearables, home and accessories, which includes AirPods?, Apple TV?, Apple Watch?, Beats? products, HomePod?, iPod touch? and other Apple-branded and third-party accessories. The company's services include: digital content stores and streaming services; AppleCare, which includes AppleCare + (AC+) and the AppleCare Protection Plan; iCloud, which is the company's cloud service; licensing; and other services, which include Apple Arcade?, Apple Card?, Apple News+, and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), tacos, and salads. The company operates Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, international Chipotle restaurants, and non-Chipotle restaurants. The company uses various herbs, spices and seasonings to prepare its meats and vegetables. The company also serves tortilla chips that seasoned with lime juice and salt, with sides of hand mashed guacamole, salsas, or queso. In addition to sodas, fruit and tea drinks, and organic milk, most of the company's restaurants also provide a selection of beer and margaritas.

Deckers Outdoor Corporation

Deckers Outdoor is engaged in designing, marketing and distributing footwear, apparel and accessories. The company markets its products primarily under five brands. The UGG brand is comprised of a line of footwear, apparel and accessories for women, men and children. The HOKA brand is a line of footwear and apparel. The Teva brand's product line includes sandals, shoes, and boots. Sanuk brand is comprised of casual shoe and sandal categories. Other brands consist of Koolaburra by UGG brand, a casual footwear fashion using sheepskin and other plush materials. The company's retail stores are primarily UGG brand concept and UGG brand outlet stores.

Domino's Pizza Inc.

Domino's Pizza is a pizza company. The company is primarily engaged in the following business activities: retail sales of food through the company-owned Domino's Pizza stores; sales of food, equipment and supplies to the company-owned and franchised Domino's Pizza stores through the company-owned supply chain centers; receipt of royalties, advertising contributions and fees from United States Domino's Pizza franchisees; and receipt of royalties and fees from international Domino's Pizza franchisees. The company's menu features pizza products with varying sizes and crust types. The company's store also provides oven-baked sandwiches, pasta, boneless chicken and wings, bread side items, desserts and soft drink products.

McDonald's Corporation

McDonald's franchises and operates McDonald's restaurants. The company's menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, wraps, fries, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages. The company's restaurants in the United States and various international markets provide a full or limited breakfast menu. Breakfast offerings may include Egg McMuffin, Sausage McMuffin with Egg, McGriddles, biscuit and bagel sandwiches and hotcakes. The restaurants also sells a variety of other products during limited-time promotions

Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.

NIKE Inc. Class B

NIKE is engaged in the design, development and marketing and selling of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories and services. The company focuses its NIKE Brand product offerings in Running, NIKE Basketball, the Jordan Brand, Football (Soccer), Training and Sportswear categories. The company markets products designed for kids, as well as for other athletic and recreational uses such as American football, baseball, cricket, golf, lacrosse, tennis, walking, and other outdoor activities. The company has license agreements that permit unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell, using the company-owned trademarks, certain apparel, digital devices and applications and other equipment designed for sports activities.

Oracle Corporation

Oracle provides products and services that address enterprise information technology (IT) environments. The company's products and services include applications and infrastructure offerings. The company's cloud and license business engages in the sale, marketing and delivery of its applications and infrastructure technologies through cloud and on-premise deployment models including its cloud services and license support offerings; and its cloud license and on-premise license offerings. The company's hardware business provides Oracle Engineered Systems, servers, storage, industry-specific hardware, operating systems, virtualization, management and other hardware-related software to support diverse IT environments.

ServiceNow Inc.

ServiceNow provides enterprise cloud computing services that define, structure, manage and automate digital workflows for global enterprises. The company markets its services to enterprises in a variety of industries, including consumer products, education, financial services, government, health care, information technology (IT) services and technology. The company sells its subscription services through direct sales and, to a lesser extent, through indirect channel sales. The company also provides a portfolio of personnel and other services, both directly and through its network of partners. The company's products include IT service management, IT operations management, IT business management, and security operations.

SHOPIFY INC.

Shopify provides a cloud-based commerce platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. Merchants use its software to run their business across all of their sales channels, including web, tablet and mobile storefronts, social media storefronts, and brick-and-mortar and pop-up shops. Co. provides a platform for merchants to create an omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchant's brand and grow its business. Co.'s platform provides merchants with a single view of their business and customers across all of their sales channels and enables them to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, build customer relationships and leverage analytics and reporting.

Skechers U.S.A. Inc. Class A

Skechers USA designs and markets Skechers-branded lifestyle footwear for men, women and children, and performance footwear for men and women under the Skechers Performance brand name. The company also designs and markets men's and women's Skechers branded lifestyle apparel, and license the Skechers brand to others for accessories, leather goods, eyewear and scrub manufacturers, among others. The company's product offering is sold through department and specialty stores, athletic and independent retailers, boutiques and internet retailers. In addition to wholesale distribution, the company's footwear is available at its direct-to-consumer websites and its own retail stores.

Steven Madden Ltd.

Steven Madden designs, sources, markets and sells name brand and private label footwear for women, men and children and name brand and private label handbags and accessories. The company licenses its trademarks for use in connection with the manufacturing, marketing and sale of various products by third party licensees. The company's products are marketed through its retail stores and its e-commerce websites within the U.S., Canada, Mexico, the company's joint ventures in South Africa, China, Taiwan and Israel, as well as department stores, specialty stores, retailers, national chains, mass merchants, online retailers and catalog retailers throughout the U.S., Canada, Mexico, certain European nations and Tunisia.

Wolverine World Wide Inc.

Wolverine World Wide is a designer, marketer and licensor of a range of casual footwear and apparel, performance outdoor and athletic footwear and apparel, kids' footwear, industrial work boots and apparel, and uniform shoes and boots. The company has two segments: Wolverine Michigan Group, consisting of Merrell? footwear and apparel, Cat? footwear, Wolverine? footwear and apparel, Chaco? footwear, Hush Puppies? footwear and apparel, Bates? uniform footwear, Harley-Davidson? footwear and Hytest? safety footwear; and Wolverine Boston Group, consisting of Sperry? footwear and apparel, Saucony? footwear and apparel, Keds? footwear and apparel, and the Kids footwear business.

Yum! Brands Inc.

Yum! Brands franchises or operates a system of quick service restaurants through its KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands. The company's operating segments consist of the KFC Division, the Pizza Hut Division and the Taco Bell Division. KFC restaurants provides fried and non-fried chicken products such as sandwiches, chicken strips, chicken-on-the-bone and other chicken products marketed under a variety of names. Pizza Hut is engaged in the sale of ready-to-eat pizza products. Pizza Hut operates in the delivery, carryout and casual dining segments. Taco Bell is engaged in Mexican-style food products, including various types of tacos, burritos, quesadillas, salads, nachos and other related items.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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