Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and Treasury Yields Roll Over

The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. This is a hallmark of bull markets; we will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change. In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact.

Gold and Silver Breaking Out as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and Treasury Yields Roll Over. Gold is breaking out of a 3.5-year base to all-time closing highs -- buy. Silver is well-below its all-time highs, but is breaking out above a 3-month base at $23.50. Rising gold prices are historically a risk-on signal for the S&P 500; going back to the 1970s, eight of the last nine bullish periods for gold were also bullish periods for the S&P 500. Helping facilitate the rise of precious metals is toppy price action in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY) -- both of which are risk-on signals in their own right... see chart below and pages 3-4.
Large- to Micro-Caps are Bullish. Broad market indexes are all bullish across the market cap spectrum, which is yet another risk-on signal as it indicates improving breadth. This includes the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI, Russell 2000, S&P 400, Equal-Weight S&P 500, and Russell Micro-Cap indexes. We will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 days in order to get more cautious, though even that would likely set up another buying opportunity. In addition to the 20-day MA, we also see short-term support at 5040-5050 on SPX; if the 20-day MA and 5040 were to break, there are many other potential supports before getting to major support at 4800... see page 5.
More Risk-On Signals. Mid-caps are starting to outperform (and potentially small-caps as well). Retail ETFs (XRT, IBUY) are breaking out from 2-year bases. Broker-dealers (IAI) display a 2-month base breakout. Defensives including Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) continue to underperform and are hitting 20+ year RS lows. The equal-weighted Discretionary vs. Staples ratio (RSPD vs. RSPS) is hitting new 2+ year highs. U.S. high yield spreads are at 2-year narrows. Bitcoin is testing all-time highs (and we remain bullish). Every bullet point on this page is indicative of a strengthening bull market; there simply cannot be a meaningful correction until the majority of these dynamics take a turn for the worse.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Services and Materials: SV-13 Construction & Engineering, Large-Cap, SV-14 Construction & Engineering, Small-Cap, and MA-11 Cement/Aggregates
Underlyings
ARCADIS N.V.

Construction Partners

Construction Partners is a holding company. Through its wholly owned subsidiaries, the company provides a variety of products and services to infrastructure projects, with a focus on highways, roads, bridges, airports, and commercial and residential sites. The company's primary operations consist of manufacturing and distributing hot mix asphalt (HMA), paving activities, including the construction of roadway base layers and application of asphalt pavement, site development, including the installation of utility and drainage systems, mining aggregates, such as sand and gravel, that are used as raw materials in the production of HMA, and distributing liquid asphalt cement in connection with HMA production.

Dycom Industries Inc.

Dycom Industries is a provider of specialty contracting services. The company supplies telecommunications providers with a portfolio of specialty services, including program management; planning; engineering and design; aerial, underground, and wireless construction; maintenance; and fulfillment services for telecommunications providers. Additionally, the company provides underground facility locating services for various utilities, including telecommunications providers, and other construction and maintenance services for electric and gas utilities. The company supplies the labor, tools, and equipment necessary to provide these services to its customers.

EMCOR GROUP

EMCOR Group is an electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services firm. In addition, the company provides building services and industrial services. The company's services are provided to its customers through its operating subsidiaries and joint venture entities. The company engages in providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in various types of facilities and in providing various services relating to the operation, maintenance and management of facilities. The company also provides its construction services indirectly by acting as a subcontractor to general contractors, systems suppliers, construction managers, developers, property managers and other subcontractors.

Granite Construction Incorporated

Granite Construction is a holding company, which delivers infrastructure solutions for public and private clients. The company's segments are: Transportation, which focuses on construction and rehabilitation of roads, pavement preservation, bridges, rail lines, airports and marine ports; Water, which focuses on water-related construction and water management solutions; Specialty, which focuses on construction of various complex projects including infrastructure/site development, mining, public safety, tunnel and power projects; and Materials, which focuses on production of aggregates, asphalt and construction related materials as well as proprietary sanitary and storm water rehabilitation products.

IES Holdings Inc.

IES Holdings is a holding company. The company has four business segments: Commercial & Industrial, which provides electrical and mechanical design, construction, and maintenance services to the commercial and industrial markets in various regional markets and nationwide in certain areas such as the power infrastructure market; Communications, which provides technology infrastructure services to corporations and independent businesses; Infrastructure Solutions, which provides electro-mechanical solutions for industrial operations; and Residential, which provides electrical installation services for single-family housing and multi-family apartment complexes.

JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.

KBR Inc.

KBR provides services and technologies across the asset and program life-cycle within the government services and hydrocarbons industries. The company has three segments: Government Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions to defense, space, aviation and other programs and missions for military and other government agencies; Technology Solutions, which combines technologies, equipment and catalyst supply, digital solutions and associated knowledge-based services into a global business for refining, petrochemicals, inorganic and specialty chemicals; and Energy Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions across the upstream, midstream and downstream hydrocarbons markets.

Martin Marietta Materials Inc.

Martin Marietta Materials is a natural resource-based building materials company. The company supplies aggregates (crushed stone, sand and gravel) through its network of quarries, mines and distribution yards. The company also provides cement and downstream products, namely, ready mixed concrete, asphalt and paving services. The company conducts its Building Materials business through three segments: Mid-America Group, Southeast Group and West Group. The Mid-America and Southeast Groups provide aggregates products only. The West Group provides aggregates, cement and downstream products. The company also has the Magnesia Specialties segment, which includes its magnesia-based chemicals and dolomitic lime businesses.

MasTec Inc.

MasTec is an infrastructure construction company operating mainly throughout North America across a range of industries. The company's segments include: Communications, which performs engineering, construction, maintenance and customer fulfillment activities related to communications infrastructure; Oil and Gas, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance services on oil and natural gas pipelines and processing facilities; Electrical Transmission, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance of electrical transmission lines and substations; and Power Generation and Industrial, which performs installation and construction of power facilities.

MYR Group Inc.

MYR Group is a holding company of electrical construction service providers. Through its subsidiaries, the company serves the electric utility infrastructure, commercial and industrial construction markets located throughout the U.S. and Canada. The company manages its operations through two segments: Transmission and Distribution, which provides services on electric transmission and distribution networks and substation facilities; and Commercial and Industrial, which provides services such as the design, installation, maintenance and repair of commercial and industrial wiring, installation of traffic networks and the installation of bridge, roadway and tunnel lighting.

Orion Group Holdings

Orion Group Holdings is a construction company in the building, industrial, and infrastructure sectors in the continental U.S., Alaska, Canada, and the Caribbean Basin. The company operates in two segments: marine, which operates under the Orion Marine Group brand and logo; and concrete, which operates under the TAS Commercial Concrete brand and logo. The company's marine construction services include construction, restoration, dredging, maintenance and repair of marine transportation facilities, marine pipelines, bridges and causeways, and marine environmental structures. The concrete segment provides its services in the following areas: light commercial, structural, and other services.

Primoris Services Corporation

Primoris Services, through its subsidiaries, provides a range of construction, fabrication, maintenance, replacement, and engineering services to main public and private utilities, petrochemical companies, energy companies, municipalities, state departments of transportation and other customers. The company installs, replaces, repairs and rehabilitates natural gas, refined product, water and wastewater pipeline systems; large diameter gas and liquid pipeline facilities; electric utility systems; and heavy civil projects, earthwork and site development. The company also constructs mechanical facilities and other structures. Finally, the company provides process and product engineering services.

Quanta Services Inc.

Quanta Services is a provider of contracting services, delivering infrastructure solutions for the electric power, energy and communications industries in the United States, Canada, Australia, Latin America and select other international markets. The company has two segments: Electric Power Infrastructure Services, which provides network solutions to customers in the electric power industry and services that support the development of renewable energy generation; and Pipeline and Industrial Infrastructure Services, which provides infrastructure solutions to customers involved in the development, transportation, distribution, storage and processing of natural gas, oil and other products.

Sterling Construction Company Inc.

Sterling Construction is a construction company that focuses in heavy civil construction and infrastructure rehabilitation as well as residential construction projects. The company operates primarily in Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas and Utah, as well as other states. The company's heavy civil construction projects include highways, roads, bridges, airfields, ports, light rail, water, wastewater and storm drainage systems, foundations for multi-family homes, commercial concrete projects and parking structures. Residential construction projects include concrete foundations for single-family homes.

Summit Materials Inc. Class A

Summit Materials is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a construction materials company. The company produces and sells aggregates, cement, ready-mix concrete, asphalt paving mix and concrete products and owns and operates quarries, sand and gravel pits, cement plants, cement distribution terminals, ready-mix concrete plants, asphalt plants and landfill sites. The company is engaged in paving and related services. The company has operations in various states across the United States and in British Columbia, Canada. The company operates a municipal waste landfill in its East segment, and has construction and demolition debris landfills and liquid asphalt terminal operations in its West and East segments.

Tutor Perini Corporation

Tutor Perini is a construction company. The company operates in three segments: Civil, which focuses on public works construction and the replacement and reconstruction of infrastructure; Building, which provides services to various building markets for private and public works customers, including hospitality and gaming, transportation, health care, commercial offices, sports and entertainment, education, correctional facilities, biotech and pharmaceutical, among others; and Specialty Contractors, which focuses on electrical, mechanical, plumbing, heating, ventilation and air conditioning, fire protection systems and pneumatically placed concrete for civil and building construction projects.

U.S. Lime & Minerals

United States Lime & Minerals through its Lime and Limestone Operations, is a manufacturer of lime and limestone products, supplying primarily the construction (highway, road and building contractors), industrial (paper and glass manufacturers), environmental (municipal sanitation and water treatment facilities and flue gas treatment processes), metals (steel producers), oil and gas services, roof shingle manufacturers and agriculture (poultry and cattle feed producers) industries. The company, through its wholly owned subsidiary has royalty interests and a non-operated working interest with respect to oil and gas rights on the company's land located in Johnson County, TX, in the Barnett Shale Formation.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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