Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Small Caps Outperform Despite "Hot" Inflation Reports

In spite of last week's hotter-than-expected inflation reports (CPI and PPI), the S&P 500 remains above its 20-day MA, and, more notably, the Russell 2000 (IWM) outperformed relative to the SPX and QQQ, and ended the week at YTD weekly closing highs. Small-caps are supposed to fall and/or underperform if inflation is on the rise. When stocks do the opposite of what is expected of them, that is valuable information. The fact that small- and mid-caps outperformed during a week with two hot inflation reports is a sign that we could see them continue to outperform in the weeks/months ahead, as large-cap growth potentially takes a breather. Our bullish outlook that we have had since early November 2023 remains intact.

Bullish Developments. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) and Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF) display 2-month base breakouts, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM) is breaking out from a 1.5-month bull flag pattern. Several Sectors/industries display similar breakouts from 2-month to 2.5-year bases, including Health Care (XLV, RSPH), Industrials (XLI), Transportation (IYT), retail (XRT), global airliners (JETS), ARKK, ARKF, ARKW, IPO, and more. This broadening participation is a bullish sign as it signals healthy breadth. Perhaps all the market really cares about is that the Fed's next move will be a cut, and it is less concerned about when it will happen... see charts below and page 3.
S&P 500, Small-, and Mid-Caps. The S&P 500 remains above its 20-day MA and 21-day EMA, currently about 4940; as long as the 4940 area holds, the short-term trend is up. If 4940 breaks, support to watch would be at 4800-4850; a pullback to this area would be healthy, and likely a buying opportunity. Anything below 4800 on the S&P 500 and we would look for 4682 or 4600 as a sort of worst-case scenario. In terms of small- and mid-caps, we continue to expect higher prices in 2024 as long as the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF) remain above $178.50 and $157 supports.
U.S. Dollar (DXY), 10-Yr Treasury Yield. The U.S. dollar (DXY) appears to be staging a false breakout at the important $104.60-$104.70 level that we have discussed for the past two weeks. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury yield is below critical resistance at 4.35%. If these are topping here, it would be a significant risk-on signal... see page 4.
Underlyings
ARCADIS N.V.

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

Brookdale Senior Living is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operator of senior living communities. The company's Community offerings include: independent living, which is for middle to upper income seniors; assisted living and memory care, which provides housing and assistance to mid-acuity frail and elderly residents; and continuing care retirement, which provides living arrangements and services to accommodate various physical ability and health. Through its Health Care Services segment the company provides home health, hospice and outpatient therapy services, and education and wellness programs, to residents of its communities and to seniors living outside of its communities.

BWX Technologies Inc.

BWX Technologies is a manufacturer of nuclear components, a developer of nuclear technologies and a service provider. The company operates three segments: Nuclear Operations Group, which engineers, designs and manufactures precision naval nuclear components, reactors and nuclear fuel for the U.S. Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program; Nuclear Services Group, which provides services including nuclear materials processing and management and operating services; and Nuclear Power Group, which designs and manufactures commercial nuclear steam generators, heat exchangers, pressure vessels, reactor components and other auxiliary equipment.

Capital Senior Living

Community Health Systems Inc.

Community Health Systems is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates general acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. The company provides healthcare services through the hospitals that it owns and operates and affiliated businesses in non-urban and selected urban markets. Services provided through the company's hospitals and affiliated businesses include general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery, critical care, internal medicine, obstetrics, diagnostic, psychiatric and rehabilitation services. The company also provides additional outpatient services at urgent care centers, occupational medicine clinics, imaging centers, cancer centers and ambulatory surgery centers.

Enova International Inc

Enova International is a technology and analytics company focused on providing online financial services. The company provided or arranged loans to consumers under the names CashNetUSA and NetCredit in 33 states in the U.S., under the names QuickQuid, Pounds to Pocket and On Stride Financial in the U.K., and under the name Simplic in Brazil. The company also provided financing to small businesses in all 50 states and Washington D.C. in the U.S. under the names Headway Capital and The Business Backer. The company originates, arranges, guarantees or purchases short-term consumer loans, line of credit accounts, installment loans and receivables purchase agreements.

Ensign Group Inc.

Ensign Group is a holding company. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company provides skilled nursing, senior living and rehabilitative services, as well as other ancillary businesses. In transitional and skilled services, the company provides short and long-term nursing care services for patients with chronic conditions, prolonged illness, and the elderly. The company's senior living companies provide residential accommodations, activities, meals, housekeeping and assistance in the activities of daily living to seniors who are independent or who require some support, but not the level of nursing care provided in a skilled nursing operation. The company's other business lines includes of mobile ancillary services.

EZCORP Inc. Class A

EZCORP is a provider of pawn loans in the United States and Latin America. The company's business consists of the following three reportable segments: United States Pawn, which includes its EZPAWN, Value Pawn and Jewelry and other pawn operations in the United States; Latin America Pawn, which includes its Empeno Facil and other branded pawn operations in Mexico, as well as the company's GuatePrenda and MaxiEfectivo pawn operations in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Peru; and Other International, which includes primarily the company's CASHMAX financial services operations in Canada and its equity interest in the net income of Cash Converters International.

FIRSTCASH HLDGS INC

Granite Construction Incorporated

Granite Construction is a holding company, which delivers infrastructure solutions for public and private clients. The company's segments are: Transportation, which focuses on construction and rehabilitation of roads, pavement preservation, bridges, rail lines, airports and marine ports; Water, which focuses on water-related construction and water management solutions; Specialty, which focuses on construction of various complex projects including infrastructure/site development, mining, public safety, tunnel and power projects; and Materials, which focuses on production of aggregates, asphalt and construction related materials as well as proprietary sanitary and storm water rehabilitation products.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

MYR Group Inc.

MYR Group is a holding company of electrical construction service providers. Through its subsidiaries, the company serves the electric utility infrastructure, commercial and industrial construction markets located throughout the U.S. and Canada. The company manages its operations through two segments: Transmission and Distribution, which provides services on electric transmission and distribution networks and substation facilities; and Commercial and Industrial, which provides services such as the design, installation, maintenance and repair of commercial and industrial wiring, installation of traffic networks and the installation of bridge, roadway and tunnel lighting.

NHC Communications, Inc.

Sterling Construction Company Inc.

Sterling Construction is a construction company that focuses in heavy civil construction and infrastructure rehabilitation as well as residential construction projects. The company operates primarily in Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas and Utah, as well as other states. The company's heavy civil construction projects include highways, roads, bridges, airfields, ports, light rail, water, wastewater and storm drainage systems, foundations for multi-family homes, commercial concrete projects and parking structures. Residential construction projects include concrete foundations for single-family homes.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Universal Health Services Inc. Class B

Universal Health Services owns and operates, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioral health care facilities. The company owns and/or operates inpatient facilities and outpatient and other facilities located in several states including, Washington, D.C., the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Services provided by the company's hospitals include general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. The company's reportable operating segments consist of acute care hospital services and behavioral health care services.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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