Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 42.74 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Breakouts Continue; Upgrading Discretionary

We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we flipped to neutral. We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold. Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below). Our intermediate-term bullish outlook has been in place since our 5/14/25 Compass. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200. SPX supports include 6720-6770, 6690, 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6290, and 6200.

Russell 2000 (IWM) and Many Other Breakouts. Not only has the Russell 2000 (IWM) held above the major 4+ year base ($245 level), it also appears be breaking out from
Underlyings
ArcelorMittal

Baker Hughes Company Class A

Baker Hughes is an energy technology company. The company's segments are: Oilfield Services, which provides products and services for onshore and offshore operations ranging from drilling, evaluation, completion, production, and intervention; Oilfield Equipment, which provides products and services for the subsea, offshore surface and onshore operating environments; Turbomachinery and Processing Solutions, which provides equipment and related services for mechanical-drive, compression and power-generation applications; and Digital Solutions, which includes condition monitoring, industrial controls, non-destructive technologies, measurement, sensing, and pipeline solutions.

Century Aluminum Company

Century Aluminum is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities in the U.S. and Iceland. The company's principal subsidiaries are: Century Kentucky, Inc., which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Hawesville, KY; Nordural ehf, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Grundartangi, Iceland; Century Aluminum Sebree LLC, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Robards, KY; Century Aluminum of South Carolina, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Goose Creek, SC; and Nordural Helguvik ehf, which owns a greenfield primary aluminum project in Helguvik, Iceland.

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Gerdau S.A. ADS

Halliburton Company

Halliburton assists its customers throughout the lifecycle of the reservoir, from locating hydrocarbons and managing geological data, to drilling and formation evaluation, well construction and completion and optimizing production throughout the life of the asset. The company's segments are: Completion and Production, which delivers cementing, stimulation, intervention, pressure control, specialty chemicals, artificial lift and completion products and services; and Drilling and Evaluation, which provides field and reservoir modeling, drilling, evaluation and wellbore placement solutions that enable customers to model, measure, drill and optimize their well construction activities.

Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc.

Helix Energy Solutions Group is an international offshore energy services company that provides specialty services to the offshore energy industry. The company has three business segments: well intervention, which includes vessels and equipment used to perform well intervention services primarily in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, the North Sea and West Africa; robotics, which includes remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), trenchers and ROVDrills designed to complement offshore construction and well intervention services; and production facilities, which includes the Helix Producer I, a floating production vessel, the Helix Fast Response System, and its ownership interest in Independence Hub, LLC.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Howmet Aerospace is a provider of engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The company's primary businesses focus on jet engine components, aerospace fastening systems, and titanium structural parts necessary for mission-critical performance and efficiency in aerospace and defense applications, as well as forged wheels for commercial transportation.

INNOVEX INTERNATIONAL INC

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

Oceaneering International Inc.

Oceaneering International is a provider of engineered services and products, primarily to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company's segments are: Energy Services and Products; and Advanced Technologies. The company's business segments within the Energy Services and Products business are remotely operated vehicles, subsea products, subsea projects and asset integrity. The company's Advanced Technologies segment consists of government; and commercial business units: Government services and products include engineering and related manufacturing in defense and space exploration activities. The company's commercial business unit provides a turnkey solution that includes program management, and engineering design.

Oil States International Inc.

Oil States International, through its subsidiaries, is an oilfield products and services company serving the drilling, completion, subsea, production and infrastructure sectors of the oil and gas industry. The company is also a provider of completion services to the industry. The company operates through three segments: well site services, whose operations primarily include completion-focused equipment and services as well as land drilling services; downhole technologies, which provides oil and gas perforation systems and downhole tools; and offshore/manufactured products, which designs, manufactures and markets capital equipment utilized on floating production systems, among others.

Rio Tinto PLC ADS (Mexico)

Schlumberger NV

Schlumberger provides technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. The company has four segments: Reservoir Characterization, which consists of the principal technologies involved in finding and defining hydrocarbon resources; Drilling, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the drilling and positioning of oil and gas wells; Production, which consists of the principal technologies involved in the lifetime production of oil and gas reservoirs; and Cameron, which consists of the principal technologies involved in pressure and flow control for drilling and intervention rigs, oil and gas wells and production facilities.

Subsea 7 S.A. ADS

TechnipFMC Plc

TechnipFMC is global leader in oil and gas projects, technologies, systems, and services. Co. offers subsea, surface, onshore, and offshore solutions for oil and gas projects. Co. serves customers worldwide. With Co.'s technologies and production systems, integrated expertise, and comprehensive solutions, Co. is transforming Co.'s clients' project economics. Co. is uniquely positioned to deliver greater efficiency across project lifecycles from concept to project delivery and beyond. Through innovative technologies and improved efficiencies, Co.'s offering unlocks new possibilities for Co.'s clients in developing their oil and gas resources.

Ternium S.A. Sponsored ADR

Tidewater Inc

Tidewater provides offshore marine support and transportation services to the global offshore energy industry through the operation of a fleet of marine service vessels. The company's vessels and associated vessel services provide support of several phases of offshore oil and natural gas exploration, field development and production. These services include towing of, and anchor handling for, mobile offshore drilling units; transporting supplies and personnel necessary to sustain drilling, workover and production activities; offshore construction and seismic and subsea support; and a variety of services such as pipe and cable laying.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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