Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 44.14 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Expecting a Test of All-Time Highs

The market remains relentlessly strong, shrugging off the latest "bearish" headline regarding Moody's U.S. debt downgrade on Friday. This is exactly what we would expect to happen in a bull market, particularly during this "lockout rally," and helps confirm our bullish outlook. To recap, we have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but we upgraded our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well, as of last week's Compass (5/14/25). Our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500, while short-term gap support is at 5700-5785. We expect a test of all-time highs soon.

Recent Developments. At this point, there is not much "new" to say, as the vast majority of positive developments have already happened (see below for a recap). A few new developments include major price and RS bottoms for the crypto industry (BITQ, MSTR), and laggard areas of the market bottoming -- notably h
Underlyings
ARDENT HEALTH PARTNERS INC

ARTIVA BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC

Eaton Corp. Plc

Ensign Group Inc.

Ensign Group is a holding company. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company provides skilled nursing, senior living and rehabilitative services, as well as other ancillary businesses. In transitional and skilled services, the company provides short and long-term nursing care services for patients with chronic conditions, prolonged illness, and the elderly. The company's senior living companies provide residential accommodations, activities, meals, housekeeping and assistance in the activities of daily living to seniors who are independent or who require some support, but not the level of nursing care provided in a skilled nursing operation. The company's other business lines includes of mobile ancillary services.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

National Healthcare Corp.

National HealthCare is engaged in the operation of skilled nursing facilities, assisted living facilities, independent living facilities and homecare programs. The company's business activities include providing sub-acute and post-acute skilled nursing care, intermediate nursing care, rehabilitative care, memory and Alzheimer's care, senior living services, and home health care services. The company has a non-controlling ownership interest in a hospice care business that services the company-owned health care centers and others. In addition, the company provides management services, accounting and financial services, as well as insurance services to third party operators of health care facilities.

Robert Walters PLC

Robert Walters plc is a United Kingdom-based professional recruitment consultancy. The Company offers specialist professional recruitment and recruitment process outsourcing services. The Company's segments are Asia Pacific, UK, Europe and Other International. Other International consists of the United States, South Africa, the Middle East and Brazil. As part of its specialist professional recruitment services, it offers permanent, contract and interim recruitment across accounting and finance, banking and financial services, engineering, human resources, information technology, legal, sales and marketing, secretarial and support, and supply chain and procurement disciplines. Its Resource Solutions business offers recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) and managed services. The Company's subsidiaries include Robert Walters Pty Limited, Resource Solutions Corporation Pty Limited, Robert Walters Germany GMBH and Robert Walters Brazil Limitada, among others.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Trane Technologies plc

Ingersoll-Rand provides products, services and solutions to enhance air in homes and buildings, transport and protect food. Co.'s segments are: Climate. which includes Trane® and American Standard® Heating & Air Conditioning, providing heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, and commercial and residential building services, parts, support and controls, energy services and building automation as well as transport temperature control solutions; and Industrial, which includes compressed air and gas systems and services, power tools, material handling systems, ARO® fluid management equipment, as well as Club Car ® golf, utility and rough terrain vehicles.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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