Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.71 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

In last week's Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes with three failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last four trading days. These remain important lines in the sand moving forward.

S&P 500. Last week we noted we were watching 3940-3990 for signs of support on the S&P 500, citing a significant confluence of support there, including the 4.5-month uptrend from the October lows the prior downtrend that began in January 2022, and the 200-day MA. The top-end of this support range (3990) was from the 4.5-month uptrend from the October lows. This uptrend broke on Friday and was subsequently back-tested yesterday; which tells us bearish momentum could pick up soon, but the fact remains the S&P 500 is still above its 200-day MA at 3940 and above the prior downtrend from January 2022 at 3915-3920. We continue to believe that
Underlyings
Ardmore Shipping

Costamare Inc.

Costamare is an international owner of containerships. Co. is engaged in chartering vessels to many of the world's liner companies. As of Feb 23 2018, Co. has a fleet of 71 containerships with a total capacity in excess of 466,000 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs). Co.'s strategy is to time charter its containerships to a geographically diverse, financially strong and loyal group of liner companies. Co.'s containerships operate primarily under multi-year charters and therefore are not subject to the effect of seasonal variations in demand. Some of Co.'s customers are A.P. Moller-Maersk, MSC, Evergreen, Hapag Lloyd and COSCO.

DHT Holdings Inc.

Diana Shipping Inc.

Diana Shipping is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is a global provider of shipping transportation services. Co. specializes in transporting dry bulk cargoes, including such commodities as iron ore, coal, grain and other materials along worldwide shipping routes. As of Dec 31 2017, Co.'s operating fleet consisted of 50 dry bulk carriers, of which 22 are Panamax, five are Kamsarmax, five are Post-Panamax, fourteen are Capesize and four are Newcastlemax vessels, having a combined carrying capacity of approximately 5.8 million dwt.

Eagle Bulk Shipping

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc.

Ethan Allen Interiors, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ethan Allen Global, Inc., and Ethan Allen Global, Inc.'s subsidiaries, is an interior design company, manufacturer and retailer in the home furnishings marketplace. The company aligns its business into two reportable segments: Retail, which sells home furnishings and accents to consumers through a network of the company operated design centers; and Wholesale, which is principally involved in the development of the Ethan Allen brand and encompasses all aspects of design, manufacture, sourcing, marketing, sale, and distribution of the company's range of home furnishings and accents. The company's product line includes case goods, upholstery, and home accents.

Euronav NV

Euronav is a provider of maritime shipping and offshore services engaged primarily in the transportation and storage of crude oil. As of Apr. 4, 2017, Co. owned and operated a modern fleet of 55 vessels (including four chartered-in vessels) with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 13.7 million deadweight tons, or dwt, consisting of 31 very large crude carriers, one ultra large crude carrier, 21 Suezmax vessels, and two floating, storage and offloading vessels. Co. has two operating segments: the operation of crude oil tankers on the international markets (tankers) and the floating production, storage and offloading operations.

Flexsteel Industries Inc.

Flexsteel Industries is a manufacturer, importer and marketer of residential and contract upholstered and wooden furniture products. With offerings for use in home, healthcare, and recreational seating, the company distributes its furniture throughout the United States and Canada through the company's sales force and various independent representatives. The company operates in one reportable segment, furniture products. The company's furniture products business involves the distribution of manufactured and imported products consisting of a line of upholstered and wooden furniture for residential and contract markets.

FRONTLINE PLC

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.

Global Ship Lease Inc. Class A

Global Ship Lease is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the business of owning and chartering out containerships under fixed rate charters to container liner companies.

Golden Ocean Group Ltd

Hooker Furniture Corp.

Hooker Furniture is a designer, marketer and importer of casegoods (wooden and metal furniture), leather furniture and fabric-upholstered furniture. The company is organized into two segments: Hooker Branded, which includes Hooker Casegoods that covers a range of design categories and includes home entertainment, home office, accent, dining and bedroom furniture in the upper-medium price points sold under the Hooker Furniture brand; and Home Meridian, which includes Accentrics Home, home furnishings centered around a mix of pieces and materials that provide a take on home fashion, and Samuel Lawrence Furniture, focuses on offerings in bedroom, dining room, home office and youth furnishings.

International Seaways Inc.

Kirby Corporation

Kirby operates tank barge. The company's marine transportation segment provides marine transportation services, operating tank barges and towing vessels transporting bulk liquid products. The company transports petrochemicals, black oil, refined petroleum products and agricultural chemicals by tank barge. The company's distribution and services segment, sells genuine replacement parts, provides service mechanics to overhaul and repair engines, transmissions, reduction gears and related oilfield services equipment, rebuilds component parts or diesel engines, transmissions and reduction gears, and related equipment used in oilfield services, marine, power generation, on-highway and other industrial applications.

LaZBoy Incorporated

La-Z-Boy manufactures, markets, imports, exports, distributes and retails upholstery furniture products. In addition, the company imports, distributes and retails accessories and casegoods (wood) furniture products. The company's reportable operating segments are: Upholstery, which manufactures and imports upholstered furniture such as recliners and motion furniture, sofas, loveseats, chairs, sectionals, modulars, ottomans and sleeper sofas; Casegoods, which imports, markets, and distributes casegoods (wood) furniture as well as manufactures some custom upholstered furniture; and Retail, which sells upholstered furniture, in addition to some casegoods and other accessories.

Navios Maritime Holdings Inc.

Navios Maritime Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in global, seaborne shipping and logistics with focus on the transport and transshipment of drybulk commodities including iron ore, coal and grain. Co.'s core fleet (excluding the Navios Logistics fleet), the average age of which is approximately 7.4 years, consists of a total of 61 vessels, aggregating approximately 6.3 million dwt. Navios Holdings owns 13 Capesize vessels (169,000-182,000 dwt), 14 modern Ultra Handymax vessels (50,000-59,000 dwt), 12 Panamax vessels (74,000-85,000 dwt) and one Handysize vessel.

Safe Bulkers Inc.

Safe Bulkers is an international provider of marine drybulk transportation services, transporting bulk cargoes, particularly coal, grain and iron ore, along worldwide shipping routes for consumers of marine drybulk transportation services. As of Feb. 9, 2018, Co. had a fleet of 39 drybulk vessels, with an aggregate carrying capacity of 3,513,800 dwt and an average age of 7.6 years. Co. deploys its vessels on both period time charters and spot time charters. The vessels on period time charters provide Co. with relatively stable cash flow and utilization rates, while the vessels in the spot market allow Co. to maintain its flexibility in low charter market conditions.

Scorpio Tankers Inc.

Sleep Number Corporation

Sleep Number is a designer, manufacturer, marketer, retailer and servicer of Sleep Number beds. The company provides its customers individualized sleep solutions and services, including a line of Sleep Number beds, bases and bedding accessories. The company's Sleep Number 360 smart bed provides individualized comfort that is adjustable on each side of the bed. The company also provides a line of FlexFit? smart adjustable bases that allow customers to raise the head or foot of the bed. The SleepIQ Kids? k2 bed extends its technology to the children's mattress market. The company's Sleep Number? bedding collection features a line of sleep products. The company provides temperature-balancing products including the DualTemp? layer.

Star Bulk Carriers Corp.

Star Bulk Carriers is an international company providing worldwide transportation solutions in the drybulk sector through its vessels-owning subsidiaries for a range of customers of major and minor bulk cargoes including iron ore, coal, grain, cement, fertilizer, along worldwide shipping routes. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. owned and operated a fleet of 73 vessels consisting primarily of Newcastlemax, Capesize as well as Kamsarmax, Ultramax and Supramax vessels with a carrying capacity between 52,055 dwt and 209,537 dwt. Co.'s vessels transport a range of major and minor bulk commodities, including ores, coal, grains and fertilizers, along worldwide shipping routes.

TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL INC

Tempur Sealy International develops, manufactures, and markets bedding products. The company's portfolio of product brands includes Tempur?, Tempur-Pedic?, Sealy? featuring Posturepedic? Technology, Stearns & Foster? and Comfort Revolution?. The company operates in two segments: North America and International. The company's North America segment consists of Tempur and Sealy manufacturing and distribution subsidiaries and licensees located in United States and Canada. The company's International segment consists of Tempur and Sealy manufacturing and distribution subsidiaries, joint ventures and licensees located in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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