Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.65 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight

Near-term we continue to see the S&P 500 moving higher, likely heading toward 4600 resistance. We also still believe it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the S&P 500, and we see a low probability of a meaningful correction if the SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support). As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we would not be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight. We are downgrading Manufacturing to market weight due to the 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation on the S&P 500 Industrials Sector (XLI) -- reduce exposure... see chart below.
Major Supports Holding. Several other indexes/Sectors continue to hold above major 1-2-year price supports (in addition to 4325 on the S&P 500). This includes 34,280 on the Dow, $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI), $28 on equal-weighted Technology (RSPT), $163 on cap-weighted Technology (XLK), $155-157 on Dow Jones Internet (FDN), and $105-$106 on Industrials (XLI), just to name a few. The 1+ year uptrends on Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) and Russell Mid Cap Growth (IWP) remain intact as well. A positive outlook is appropriate as long as these supports hold. On the other hand, if these supports start to break, it would likely mean a test of SPX 4200... see chart below and page 3.
Risk-On Signals. Cap-weighted Consumer Discretionary (XLY) remains bullish in terms of price and RS (remain overweight), and the Discretionary vs. Staples ratio is breaking to 1.5-year highs. High yield spreads remain near 1+ year narrows, and RS for defensive Sectors including Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP) is hitting multi-year lows; these continue to be clear risk-on signals that suggest a major pullback is unlikely. RS on the XLU and XLP has ticked higher in recent days, but not to any meaningful extent; we would need to see sustained outperformance from them in order to provide a true risk-off signal... see chart below and pages 4-5.
Underlyings
Alliance Resource Partners L.P.

Alliance Resource Partners is a natural resource company. The company is a coal producer in the eastern United States. The company markets its coal production to main domestic and international utilities and industrial users. The company has two reportable segments: Illinois Basin, which comprises of multiple operating segments, including operating mining complexes Webster County Coal's Dotiki mining complex, Gibson County Coal's mining complex, River View's mining complex and the Hamilton mining complex; and Appalachia, which comprises of multiple operating segments, including the Mettiki mining complex, the Tunnel Ridge mining complex, the MC Mining mining complex and the Penn Ridge property.

Arch Resources Inc. Class A

Arch Coal is a coal producer. The company's main business is the production of thermal and metallurgical coal from surface and underground mines located throughout the United Staets, for sale to utility, industrial and steel producers both in the United States and around the world. The company's segments are based on two lines of business, metallurgical coal and thermal coal, and may include a number of mine complexes. The company's segments are: the Powder River Basin, containing primary thermal operations in Wyoming; the Metallurgical, containing metallurgical operations in West Virginia; and the Other Thermal, containing supplementary thermal operations in Colorado and Illinois.

Cameco Corporation

Cameco and its subsidiaries are engaged in the exploration for and the development, mining, refining, conversion and fabrication of uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and other countries. Co. has three reportable segments: uranium, which explores for, mines, mills, purchases, and sells uranium concentrate; fuel services, which refines, converts and fabricates uranium concentrate, and purchases and sells conversion services; and electricity, which generates and sells electricity through its 31.6% interest in the Bruce Power Limited Partnership, which operates four nuclear reactors and manages the overall site in southern Ontario.

Centrus Energy Corporation

Centrus Energy is a supplier of nuclear fuel and services for the nuclear power industry. The company operates two business segments: low-enriched uranium (LEU), which supplies various components of nuclear fuel to utilities; and contract services, which provides engineering, design, and manufacturing services to government and private sector customers. The company's LEU business involves the sale of low-enriched uranium, its components, and natural uranium to utilities operating commercial nuclear power plants. LEU is a component in the production of nuclear fuel for reactors that produce electricity. The company supplies LEU to both domestic and international utilities for use in nuclear reactors.

CVR Energy Inc.

CVR Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP (CVR Refining) and CVR Partners, LP (CVR Partners). CVR Refining is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. The company's segments include: Petroleum, which includes refineries located in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK and supporting logistics assets in the region; and Nitrogen Fertilizer, which includes nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL.

Da Nang Water Supply JSC

Delek US Holdings Inc

Delek US Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the downstream energy business focused on petroleum refining, the transportation, storage and wholesale distribution of crude oil, intermediate and refined products and convenience store retailing. The company's segments are: refining, which processes crude oil and other feedstocks for the manufacture of transportation motor fuels; logistics, which gathers, transports and stores crude oil and markets, distributes, transports and stores refined products; and retail, which includes the operations of Alon USA Energy, Inc.'s convenience store sites located primarily in central and West Texas and New Mexico.

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels is engaged in uranium mining, milling, development, and exploration with operating uranium mines, mines on standby, development projects and exploration properties located in the United States. Co.'s assets include its 100% ownership of the White Mesa Mill in Utah. Co. also produces vanadium as a co-product from some of its mines in Colorado and Utah. In addition, Co. recycles uranium-bearing waste materials, referred to as "alternate feed materials", for the recovery of uranium, alone or in combination with other metals, at its White Mesa Mill.

HOLLYFRONTIER CORP

Madison Pacific Properties Inc. Cl B

Madison Pacific Properties is engaged in owning, developing and operating industrial and commercial real estate properties located in British Columbia. As of Dec 31 2010, Co.'s property portfolio was comprised of interests in 1,152,358 sq. ft. of net rentable area of industrial properties, 190,383 sq.ft. of net rentable area of retail/highway commercial properties, and 59,080 sq.ft. of net rentable area of office property for a combined total of 1,401,821 sq. ft.

PBF Energy Inc. Class A

PBF Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants and other petroleum products in the U.S. The company operates in two business segments: refining, which the company produces a variety of products at each of its refineries such as gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals and asphalt; and logistics, which through its PBF Logistics LP subsidiary, the company owns or leases, operates, develops and acquires crude oil and refined petroleum products terminals, pipelines, storage facilities and similar logistics assets.

Phillips 66

Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The company's segments include: Midstream, which provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling and processing services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids transportation, storage, processing and marketing services; Chemicals, which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis; Refining, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products; and Marketing and Specialties, which purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, mainly in the United States and Europe.

Purpose Energy Transition Fund

Uranium Energy Corp

Uranium Energy is engaged in uranium mining and related activities, including exploration, pre-extraction, extraction and processing, on uranium projects located in the United States and Paraguay. The company utilizes in-situ recovery (ISR) mining, which involves circulating oxidized water through an underground uranium deposit, dissolving the uranium and then pumping the uranium-rich solution to the surface for processing. The company has one uranium mine located in the State of Texas, the Palangana Mine, which utilizes ISR mining and has commenced extraction of uranium oxide, or yellowcake. The company has one uranium processing facility located in the State of Texas, the Hobson Processing Facility.

Valero Energy Corporation

Valero Energy is an international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company's segments include: Refining, which includes its refining operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its refining operations; Ethanol, which includes its ethanol operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its ethanol operations; and Renewable Diesel, which includes the operations of its joint ventture, Diamond Green Diesel Holdings LLC, which owns and operates a renewable diesel plant in Norco, LA.

Warrior Met Coal Inc.

Warrior Met Coal is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a producer and exporter of met coal. The company sells its coal product to steel producers in Europe and South America. The company's mining operations consist of two underground met coal mines in Southern Appalachia's coal seam (Mines No. 7 and No. 4) and other surface met and thermal coal mines. The company's natural gas operations remove and sell natural gas from the coal seams owned or leased by the company and others as a byproduct of coal production. The company's degasification operations improve mining operations and safety by reducing natural gas levels in its mines. The company also owns mineral rights for recoverable reserves at its Blue Creek Energy Mine.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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