Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.63 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Small-Caps Starting to Lead

We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals. Large-cap US indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but many other indexes such as the Russell 2000 (IWM), DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and China Internet (KWEB) have continued to move higher following their bullish reversals from the prior two weeks. We are also seeing major bullish reversals on Europe's STOXX 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225, topside 6- and 9-month downtrends, respectively. These are far from bearish signs.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have formed flag patterns over the past week. Flag support on the S&P 500 is at 4070 while resistance is at 4165-4170; for the rally to continue we will need to see a break above 4170 which would then target potential resistance levels at 4257-4300, the 200-day MA (currently 4449), and the YTD downtrend (currently 4480-4490). A break above the YTD downtrend would mean this bear market is over, and a new bull market has begun. Conversely, a breakdown from the flag pattern below 4070 would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and the downtrend channel support... see page 3.
Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC) show signs of reversing topside their 15-month RS downtrends, while the S&P 600 (IJR) similarly progresses through a RS bottoming process. Assuming it can continue, outperformance from small-caps is a risk-on signal for the broad market -- shift exposure to small-caps. Price continues to test important resistance levels at $188 and $102.50 on the IWM and IJR, respectively. Still, we will need to see them reverse their 7-month downtrends in order to have confidence that a new bull market has begun... see charts below.
Positive Signs. As previously mentioned, Europe's STOXX 50 and Japan's Nikkei 225 are the latest major global indexes to reverse key downtrends. China Internet (KWEB) is testing resistance at its huge 16-month downtrend. Semiconductors (SOXX), homebuilders (ITB), and banks (KRE, KBE) are hitting 2-2.5-month RS highs. Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding above major supports (29,000 and 1700). These are all risk-on signals...
Underlyings
Alliance Resource Partners L.P.

Alliance Resource Partners is a natural resource company. The company is a coal producer in the eastern United States. The company markets its coal production to main domestic and international utilities and industrial users. The company has two reportable segments: Illinois Basin, which comprises of multiple operating segments, including operating mining complexes Webster County Coal's Dotiki mining complex, Gibson County Coal's mining complex, River View's mining complex and the Hamilton mining complex; and Appalachia, which comprises of multiple operating segments, including the Mettiki mining complex, the Tunnel Ridge mining complex, the MC Mining mining complex and the Penn Ridge property.

Arch Resources Inc. Class A

Arch Coal is a coal producer. The company's main business is the production of thermal and metallurgical coal from surface and underground mines located throughout the United Staets, for sale to utility, industrial and steel producers both in the United States and around the world. The company's segments are based on two lines of business, metallurgical coal and thermal coal, and may include a number of mine complexes. The company's segments are: the Powder River Basin, containing primary thermal operations in Wyoming; the Metallurgical, containing metallurgical operations in West Virginia; and the Other Thermal, containing supplementary thermal operations in Colorado and Illinois.

Cabot Corporation

Cabot is a specialty chemicals and performance materials company. The company's principal products are rubber and specialty grade carbon blacks, specialty compounds, fumed metal oxides, activated carbons, inkjet colorants, and aerogel. The company's segments are: Reinforcement Materials, which combines the rubber blacks and elastomer composites product lines; Performance Chemicals, which combines its specialty grades of carbon black, fumed metal oxides and aerogel product lines in its Performance Additives business, and combines its specialty compounds and inkjet product lines in its Formulated Solutions business; and Purification Solutions, which represents the company's activated carbon business.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Canadian Natural Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company. Co.'s exploration and production operations are focused in North America, largely in Western Canada; the U.K. portion of the North Sea; and CA'te d'Ivoire, Gabon, and South Africa in Offshore Africa. Co. had total proved reserves of 5.71 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Co.'s gross proved crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), synthetic crude oil and natural gas liquids reserves totaled 4.70 billion barrels and its gross proved natural gas reserves totaled 6,106.00 billion cubic feet.

Cenovus Energy Inc.

Cenovus Energy is in the business of development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids ("NGLs") in Canada with refining operations in the U.S. Co. operates in two business segments: Upstream, which includes Co.'s development and production of crude oil, NGLs in Canada, is organized into two operations: Oil sands and conventional; and Refining and Marketing, which is focused on the refining of crude oil products into petroleum and chemical products at two refineries located in the U.S. This segment also markets Co.'s crude oil and natural gas, as well as third-party purchases and sales of product.

CNX Resources Corporation

CNX Resources is an independent oil and gas company focused on the exploration, development, production, gathering, processing and acquisition of natural gas properties primarily in the Appalachian Basin. The company's operations are centered on unconventional shale formations, primarily the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale. The company operates, develops and explores for natural gas in Appalachia (Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, and Virginia).

CVR Energy Inc.

CVR Energy is a holding company. The company is engaged in the petroleum refining and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing industries through its holdings in CVR Refining, LP (CVR Refining) and CVR Partners, LP (CVR Partners). CVR Refining is an independent petroleum refiner and marketer of transportation fuels. CVR Partners produces and markets nitrogen fertilizers in the form of urea ammonium nitrate and ammonia. The company's segments include: Petroleum, which includes refineries located in Coffeyville, KS and Wynnewood, OK and supporting logistics assets in the region; and Nitrogen Fertilizer, which includes nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing facilities located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL.

Delek US Holdings Inc

Delek US Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the downstream energy business focused on petroleum refining, the transportation, storage and wholesale distribution of crude oil, intermediate and refined products and convenience store retailing. The company's segments are: refining, which processes crude oil and other feedstocks for the manufacture of transportation motor fuels; logistics, which gathers, transports and stores crude oil and markets, distributes, transports and stores refined products; and retail, which includes the operations of Alon USA Energy, Inc.'s convenience store sites located primarily in central and West Texas and New Mexico.

HOLLYFRONTIER CORP

Imperial Oil Limited

Imperial Oil is an integrated oil company. Co. is active in all phases of the petroleum industry in Canada, including the exploration for, and production and sale of, crude oil and natural gas. In Canada, Co. is a producer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum refiner and a marketer of petroleum products. Co. is also a producer of petrochemicals. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had 1.57 billion barrels of oil-equivalent basis of net proved reserves, which consisted of 44.0 million barrels of liquids, 641.00 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 473.0 million barrels of synthetic oil, and 946.0 million barrels of bitumen.

Invesco Dynamic Biotechnology & Genome ETF

Koppers Holdings Inc.

Koppers Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of treated wood products, wood treatment chemicals, and carbon compounds. The company operates three principal business segments: Railroad and Utility Products and Services, which supplies railroad crossties to the North American railroads; Performance Chemicals, which manufactures and supplies water-based wood preservatives and wood specialty additives to treaters who supply the residential, agricultural and industrial pressure-treated wood markets; and Carbon Materials and Chemicals, which processes coal tar into a variety of products, including creosote and other related railroad products.

Madison Pacific Properties Inc. Cl B

Madison Pacific Properties is engaged in owning, developing and operating industrial and commercial real estate properties located in British Columbia. As of Dec 31 2010, Co.'s property portfolio was comprised of interests in 1,152,358 sq. ft. of net rentable area of industrial properties, 190,383 sq.ft. of net rentable area of retail/highway commercial properties, and 59,080 sq.ft. of net rentable area of office property for a combined total of 1,401,821 sq. ft.

Methanex Corporation

Methanex is a producer and supplier of methanol to the international markets of Asia Pacific, North America, Europe and South America. Co.'s operations consist of the production and sale of methanol, a commodity chemical.

Orion Engineered Carbons SA

Ovintiv Inc

Encana is an energy producer that is focused on developing its multi-basin portfolio of oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas producing plays. The company's reportable segments are: Canadian Operations, which includes the exploration for, development of, and production of oil, NGLs, natural gas and other related activities within Canada; USA Operations, which includes the exploration for, development of, and production of natural gas, oil and NGLs and other related activities within the U.S.; and Market Optimization activities are managed by the Midstream, Marketing & Fundamentals team, which is primarily responsible for the sale of the company's proprietary production to third party customers.

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy is a coal company, engaged in the mining of thermal coal for sale primarily to electric utilities and metallurgical coal for sale to industrial customers. The company owns interests in several coal mining operations located in the U.S. and Australia. The company has a majority interest in several of those mining operations and an equity interest in Middlemount Coal Pty Ltd. (Middlemount), which owns the Middlemount Mine in Queensland, Australia. In addition to its mining operations, the company markets and brokers coal from other coal producers, both as principal and agent, and trade coal and freight-related contracts through trading and business offices in the U.S., Australia, China, and the U.K.

Phillips 66

Phillips 66 is an energy manufacturing and logistics company with midstream, chemicals, refining, and marketing and specialties businesses. The company's segments include: Midstream, which provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling and processing services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids transportation, storage, processing and marketing services; Chemicals, which manufactures and markets petrochemicals and plastics on a worldwide basis; Refining, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products; and Marketing and Specialties, which purchases for resale and markets refined petroleum products, mainly in the United States and Europe.

Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy is an energy company. Co.'s operations include oil sands development and upgrading, onshore and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Co.'s segments include: oil sands, which develop and produce synthetic crude oil and related products through the recovery and upgrading of bitumen; exploration and production, which include offshore activity, and the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and refining and marketing, which include the refining of crude oil products, and the distribution and marketing of these and other purchased products, as well as a lubricants plant.

Valero Energy Corporation

Valero Energy is an international manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products. The company's segments include: Refining, which includes its refining operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its refining operations; Ethanol, which includes its ethanol operations, the associated marketing activities, and logistics assets that support its ethanol operations; and Renewable Diesel, which includes the operations of its joint ventture, Diamond Green Diesel Holdings LLC, which owns and operates a renewable diesel plant in Norco, LA.

Valvoline Inc.

Valvoline is a marketer and supplier of engine and automotive maintenance products and services. The company's segments are: Quick Lubes, which services the passenger car and light truck quick lube market via the company-owned, independent franchises and joint venture retail quick lube service center stores, as well as independent Express Care stores that service vehicles with the company's products; Core North America, which sells Valvoline? and other branded and private label engine and automotive maintenance products in the United States and Canada; and International, which sells Valvoline? and other branded engine and automotive products for the maintenance of consumer and commercial vehicles and equipment.

Warrior Met Coal Inc.

Warrior Met Coal is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a producer and exporter of met coal. The company sells its coal product to steel producers in Europe and South America. The company's mining operations consist of two underground met coal mines in Southern Appalachia's coal seam (Mines No. 7 and No. 4) and other surface met and thermal coal mines. The company's natural gas operations remove and sell natural gas from the coal seams owned or leased by the company and others as a byproduct of coal production. The company's degasification operations improve mining operations and safety by reducing natural gas levels in its mines. The company also owns mineral rights for recoverable reserves at its Blue Creek Energy Mine.

Westlake Chemical Corporation

Westlake Chemical operates as a manufacturer and marketer of basic chemicals, vinyls, polymers and building products. The company operates in two operating segments: Olefins, which manufactures and markets polyethylene, styrene monomer and various ethylene co-products; and Vinyls, which manufactures and markets polyvinyl chloride (PVC), vinyl chloride monomer, ethylene dichloride, chlor-alkali (chlorine and caustic soda), chlorinated derivative products and ethylene, as well as manufactures and sells building products fabricated from PVC, including residential siding, trim and mouldings, pipe and fittings for various water, sewer and industrial applications, and profiles for windows and doors.

Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. Ltd. ADS

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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