Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 238.60 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

As higher lows continue within a broader YTD sideways consolidation, the S&P 500 is poised to retest the 2,790-2,800 horizontal resistance level that we have highlighted in previous reports. While we continue to expect the broad YTD consolidation to continue, below we highlight additional factors that lead to our overall constructive outlook:

• XLF bouncing off critical support with authority. We have voiced our concern regarding a potential breakdown below $26.50 on the XLF and the negative implications that it would have on the broad market. We have also noted a failure to break down would be extremely bullish for the market as a whole - which is what has played out thus far.

• Internals holding strong. The S&P 500's advance/decline line and percentage of stocks above their 200-day and 50-day moving average indicators remain neutral at worst. Also, the cyclicals vs. staples ratio continues to point to a healthy, risk-on environment.

• Cyclicals still long-term leadership. Technology's long-term price and relative strength uptrends remain intact. Within Discretionary, retail and restaurants continue to outperform and indicate a strong consumer. Smid-cap biotechs and medical devices remain leadership within Health Care as price and RS uptrends persist. Long-term RS downtrends remain intact for defensive Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP) despite short-term countertrend rallies.

• Nasdaq, small-caps outperforming -- remain overweight. Not something we would expect to see prior to a market top. Risk-on.

• USD, Treasury yields remain below resistance. We are monitoring 95 on the DXY and 3.2-3.3% on the 30-year Treasury yield. And more importantly, monitoring the market's reaction to potential breakouts in either, which we believe could be problematic.

• In today's report we highlight attractive Groups within Consumer Staples, Technology, and Health Care: CS-06 Food Distributors, TE-12 Electronic Equipment Components, HC-15 Diagnostic & Test Services, and HC-18 Bioscience R & D... see pages 7-19.
Underlyings
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops medicines that treat intractable diseases by silencing the genes that cause them. Using a portfolio of RNA chemistries and several modes of delivery, the company's therapies trigger the RNA interference (RNAi) mechanism to induce knockdown of target genes. The company is focused on developing drugs for diseases with a genetic basis, typically characterized by the overproduction of one or more proteins that are involved with disease. The company's pipeline includes, among others, ARO-AAT, a candidate for the treatment of liver disease, and ARO-APOC3, which is designed to reduce production of Apolipoprotein C-III, a component of triglyceride rich lipoproteins.

Blue Apron Holdings

Blue Apron provides recipes, ingredients, and cooking techniques to preparing meals to sharing photos and stories of culinary triumphs. The company also sells wine, which can be paired with its meals, and the company sells a curated selection of cooking tools, utensils, and pantry items. The company's products include: Meals, which provides a 2-Person Plan that serves two people, and a Family Plan that serves four people; Wine, which provides wine delivery service, including red and white wines (and roses, depending on the season), tasting notes, pairing tips, and the story behind each wine; and Market, which provides a selection of cooking tools, utensils, and pantry items.

CTS Corp.

CTS designs, manufactures, and sells a line of sensors, electronic components, and actuators primarily to original equipment manufacturers. The company's products perform specific electronic functions for a given product family and are designed for use in customer assemblies. The company's primary products consist principally of sensors and actuators used in passenger or commercial vehicles, electronic components used in telecommunications infrastructure, information technology and other applications, switches, and potentiometers supplied to various markets, and fabricated piezoelectric materials and substrates used in medical, industrial, aerospace and defense, and information technology markets.

ICON Plc

Icon is engaged in providing outsourced development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries. Co. specializes in the strategic development, management and analysis of programs that support clinical development from compound selection to Phase I-IV clinical studies. Co.'s services, which are integral elements of the clinical development process, include clinical trials management, biometric activities, consulting, imaging, contract staffing, informatics and laboratory services. Co. in engaged in conducting clinical trials in most therapeutic areas on a global basis and has the operational flexibility to provide development services on a stand-alone basis.

KEMET Corporation

KEMET is a manufacturer of tantalum capacitors, multilayer ceramic capacitors, film capacitors, electrolytic capacitors, paper capacitors and solid aluminum capacitors, and Electro-Magnetic Compatible (EMC) devices, sensors, and actuators. The company is organized into three reportable segments: Solid Capacitor, which produces tantalum, aluminum, polymer and ceramic capacitors; Film and Electrolytic, which produces film, paper and wet aluminum electrolytic capacitors as well as electromagnetic interference filters; and Electro-Magnetic, Sensors, and Actuators, which primarily produces EMC materials and devices, piezo materials and actuators and various types of sensors.

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings

Laboratory Corporation of America Holdings is a life sciences company that is focused on guiding patient care. The company reports its business in the following segments: LabCorp Diagnostics (LCD) and Covance Drug Development (CDD). LCD is an independent clinical laboratory business. LCD provides a menu of requested and specialty testing through a network of primary and specialty laboratories across the United States. CDD provides drug development, medical device and diagnostic development solutions from early-stage research to clinical development and commercial market access. CDD engages in early development and clinical trials in each therapeutic category.

Littelfuse Inc.

Littelfuse is a manufacturer of technologies in circuit protection, power control and sensing. The company has three segments: Electronics, which provides fuses and fuse accessories, positive temperature coefficient resettable fuses, polymer electrostatic discharge suppressors, varistors, and gas discharge tubes; Automotive, which consists of circuit protection, power control and sensing technologies for original equipment manufacturers, Tier-I suppliers and parts distributors in the passenger car, agricultural, construction and other commercial vehicle industries; and Industrial, which includes power fuses, protection relays and controls and other circuit protection products.

Medidata Solutions Inc.

Medidata Solutions is a global life sciences technology provider to improve the way clinical research is designed, conducted, analyzed, and commercialized. The company's cloud-based platform of solutions, data analytics, and AI improves quality throughout clinical development programs. The company's Medidata Cloud provides a platform for demonstrating treatment efficacy and safety, supporting regulatory approval, improving outcomes for patients, providers, and payers. It has data capture, management, and reporting family of solutions. The company's services offerings include implementation services, sponsor enablement, strategic consulting, partner support, e-learning and training, and ongoing support.

Medpace Holdings Inc.

Medpace Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a clinical contract research organization focused on providing scientifically-driven outsourced clinical development services to the biotechnology, pharmaceutical and medical device industries. The company provides a range of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV. The company provides these services across a range of therapeutic areas. The company's line of clinical development services includes, but is not limited to, study start-up, patient recruitment and retention, clinical monitoring, risk-based monitoring, medical writing, data management, pharmacovigilance, and molecular and genetic testing.

Natera

Natera is a diagnostics company. The company engages in the discovery, development and commercialization of genetic testing services. The company's product offerings include: Panorama Non-Invasive Prenatal Test, which screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus typically with a blood draw from the mother; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test performed to identify single-gene disorders; Horizon Carrier Screening, which determines carrier status for a number of severe genetic diseases that could be passed on to the carrier's children; and Spectrum, which analyzes chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle to select embryos for a pregnancy.

NeoGenomics Inc.

NeoGenomics operate a network of cancer-focused testing laboratories in the United States as well as laboratories in Switzerland and Singapore. The company's testing services include the following: Cytogenetics (karyotype analysis), a study of chromosomes and their relationship to disease; Fluorescence In-Situ Hybridization, a molecular cytogenetic technique that focuses on detecting and localizing the presence or absence of specific DNA sequences and genes on chromosomes; Flow cytometry, a technique utilized to measure the characteristics of cell populations; Immunohistochemistry and Digital Imaging; Molecular testing; and Morphologic analysis, a process of analyzing cells under the microscope.

Performance Food Group Company

Performance Food Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company markets and distributes food and food-related products. The company's products include frozen foods, such as meats, appetizers and entrees, fruits, vegetables, and desserts; canned and dry foods; fresh meats; dairy products; beverage products; imported specialties; fresh produce; and candy, snack, and other products. The company also supplies non-food items including paper products such as pizza boxes, disposable napkins, plates and cups; tableware such as china and silverware; cookware such as pots, pans, and utensils; restaurant and kitchen equipment and supplies; cigarettes and other tobacco products; and cleaning supplies.

PRA Health Sciences Inc.

PRA Health Sciences is a contract research organization engaged in providing outsourced clinical development and data solution services to the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries. The company has two reportable segments: Clinical Research, which performs a range of services across the spectrum of clinical development programs, from the filing of investigational new drug applications and similar regulatory applications to conducting all phases of clinical trials; and Data Solutions, which provides data, analytics, technology, and consulting solutions to the life sciences market including market intelligence services, consulting and services, and apps and technology.

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Quest Diagnostics provides diagnostic information services. The company's diagnostic information segment provides information based on the menu of routine, non-routine and clinical testing and anatomic pathology testing, and other diagnostic information services. The company's testing capabilities, includes services for the predisposition, diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of cancers and other diseases, and provides tests in several fields, including endocrinology, immunology, neurology and oncology. The company's diagnostic solutions provides risk assessment services for the life insurance industry, as well as provides healthcare organizations and clinicians health information technology solutions.

SPARTANNASH CO

SpartanNash is a grocery distributor and grocery retailer. The company operates three segments: Food Distribution, which provides grocery products and perishable food products to independent retailers, the company's corporate owned retail stores, food service distributors and various other customers; Military, which contracts with manufacturers to distribute a range of grocery products, including dry groceries, beverages, meat, and frozen foods, primarily to military commissaries and exchanges; and Retail, which operated corporate owned retail stores in the Midwest region primarily under banners including Family Fare Supermarkets, D&W Fresh Markets, VG's Grocery, Dan's Supermarket and Family Fresh Market.

SUPERVALU INC.

Supervalu is a distributer of grocery and other products and provision of logistics and professional service solutions to retailers across the U.S. The company's business is classified into two reportable segments: Wholesale, which provides wholesale customers a variety of food and non-food products, including national and regional brands, and the company owns lines of private label products, as well as providing an array of professional services that provide wholesale customers with solutions; and Retail, which provides grocery offering and, depending on size, a variety of additional products, including general merchandise, home, health and beauty care, and pharmacy.

Sysco Corporation

Sysco, acting through its subsidiaries and divisions, is a distributor of food and related products primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry. The company has three reportable segments: United States Foodservice Operations, which primarily include United States Broadline operations, which distribute a line of food products, including custom-cut meat, seafood, specialty produce, specialty imports and a variety of non-food products; International Foodservice Operations, which include operations in the Americas and Europe, which distribute a line of food products and a variety of non-food products; and SYGMA, which consists of its United States customized distribution subsidiary.

TDK Corp. ADS

US Foods Holding Corp.

US Foods Holding. through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes fresh, frozen and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers throughout the United States. These customer locations include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities, and retail locations. The company provides fresh, frozen, and dry food stock-keeping units as well as non-food items, sourced from suppliers. The company's network of distribution facilities and trucks allow the company to operate and provide customer service.

Vishay Intertechnology Inc.

Vishay Intertechnology is a manufacturer and supplier of discrete semiconductors and passive components. The company's semiconductor products include metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistors, diodes, and optoelectronic components. Semiconductors are used to perform functions such as switching, amplifying, rectifying, routing, or transmitting electrical signals, power conversion, and power management. The company's passive components include resistors, capacitors, and magnetics such as inductors and transformers. Passive components are used to store electrical charges, to limit or resist electrical current, and to help in filtering, surge suppression, measurement, timing, and tuning applications.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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