Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.46 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Mid-Caps Breaking Out, Are Small-Caps Next?

Risk-on signals remain the dominant theme. As a result, we continue to believe we are close to exiting the "mixed market environment" in favor of a new, broad-based advance.

More and More Cyclical Areas Breaking Out. In our September 28 Compass, we noted that small-caps (IWM) and cyclicals (XOP, XLF, RCD, XLI) were still consolidating, and that we need to see breakouts to new YTD highs in order to signal the end of the "mixed environment," and the start of a new, broad-based advance. Since that report, we have been gradually shifting to a more bullish outlook as Energy (XOP) and then Financials (XLF) broke out to new highs. We now have another breakout, this time from equal-weighted Consumer Discretionary (RCD), giving us more confidence that we are entering a new broad-based advance. That leaves small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) as the last two key areas that we would like to see break out to YTD highs, and we believe it will happen soon. Furthermore, the S&P 400 Mid-Caps (IJH) are breaking out to new highs, and we expect small-caps to follow... see charts below and page 3.
Defensives Underperforming. Several defensive areas are hitting new RS lows; this is a bullish sign for the broad market as it signals strong risk appetites. Specifically, Consumer Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), pharmaceuticals (PPH), and telecom (IYZ) are all hitting new RS lows or remain in RS downtrends... see page 4.
S&P 500. We remain bullish on the S&P 500 following the break above 4430. As long as the S&P 500 remains above supports at the 50-day MA (4448) and 4430, we expect to see 4600 followed by 4690.
Underlyings
Associated Banc-Corp

Associated Banc is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides banking and nonbanking products and services. The company has three segments: Corporate and Commercial Specialty, which includes lending solutions, deposit and cash management solutions, and financial services; Community, Consumer, and Business, which includes lending solutions, deposit and transactional solutions, investable funds solutions, trust and investment management accounts, insurance and benefits-related products and services, and fiduciary services; and Risk Management and Shared Services, which includes corporate risk management, credit administration, finance, treasury, and operations and technology.

Bank of New York Mellon Corporation

Bank of New York Mellon divides its businesses into two business segments, Investment Services and Investment Management. The company also has an Other segment, which includes the leasing portfolio, corporate treasury activities, derivatives and other trading activity, corporate and bank-owned life insurance, renewable energy investments and business exits. The company's two principal United States banking subsidiaries engage in trust and custody activities, investment management services, banking services and various securities-related activities. The company has four other United States bank and/or trust company subsidiaries concentrating on trust products and services across the United States.

CONOCOPHILLIPS

ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company engaged in exploring for, producing, transporting and marketing crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's segments include: Alaska, which operates in Alaska; Lower 48, which operates in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico; Canada, which operates in Alberta and British Columbia; Europe and North Africa, which consists of operations and exploration activities in Norway, the United Kingdom and Libya; Asia Pacific and Middle East, which operates in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Qatar, and Timor-Leste; and Other International, which operates in Colombia, Chile and Argentina.

Continental Resources Inc.

Continental Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas mainly in the North, South and East regions of the U.S. The North region consists of properties north of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River and includes North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken, and the Red River units. The South region includes all properties south of Nebraska and west of the Mississippi River including various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province and Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian Kingfisher areas of Oklahoma. The East region is comprised of undeveloped leasehold acreage east of the Mississippi River.

EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas primarily in main producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, The People's Republic of China, Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas.

F.N.B. Corporation

FNB is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial services, principally to consumers, corporations, governments and small- to medium-sized businesses in its market areas. Commercial banking solutions include corporate banking, small business banking, investment real estate financing, business credit, capital markets and lease financing. Consumer banking products and services include deposit products, mortgage lending, consumer lending and a complete suite of mobile and online banking services. Wealth management services include asset management, private banking and insurance.

Intrepid Potash

Mosaic Company

Mosaic is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company is organized into three reportable business segments: Phosphates, which owns and operates mines and production facilities in Florida that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and processing plants in Louisiana that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients; Potash, which mines and processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally; and Mosaic Fertilizantes, which produces and sells concentrated phosphates crop nutrients, phosphate-based animal feed ingredients and potash fertilizer.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum has three reporting segments: oil and gas, which explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas; chemical, which mainly manufactures and markets basic chemicals (chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates and calcium chloride) and vinyls (vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride and ethylene); and marketing and midstream, which purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGL, natural gas, carbon dioxide and power.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company

Pioneer Natural Resources is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production. The company explores for, develops and produces oil, Natural Gas Liquids and gas within the United States, with operations in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company's portfolio of resources are located in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp oil field.

Signature Bank

Signature Bank is a commercial bank with private client offices located in the New York metropolitan area, providing a variety of business and personal banking products and services. The company also has a private client banking office in San Francisco. The company provides a variety of financing and leasing products, brokerage, asset management and insurance products and services, and a range of municipal finance and tax-exempt lending and leasing products to government entities, including state and local governments, school districts, fire and police and other municipal entities. Additionally, the company purchases, securitizes and sells the guaranteed portions of U.S. Small Business Administration loans.

Sterling Bancorp

Sterling Bancorp is a bank holding company and financial holding company. Through its subsidiary, Sterling National Bank (the Bank), the company provides commercial, business, and consumer banking products and services. The Bank's principal business is accepting deposits and, together with funds generated from operations and borrowings, investing in various types of loans and securities. The Bank also operates its commercial finance businesses, which include asset-based lending, payroll financing, factoring, warehouse lending, equipment financing, and public sector financing. The company's commercial banking teams focus on the origination of commercial and industria loans and commercial mortgage loans.

UMB Financial Corporation

UMB Financial is a bank holding company and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides banking services and asset servicing to its customers. The company's segments include: Commercial Banking, which serves the commercial lending and leasing, capital markets, and treasury management needs of the company's mid-market businesses and governmental entities; Institutional Banking, which is a combination of banking services, fund services, and asset management services provided to institutional clients; Personal Banking, which combines consumer services and asset management provided to personal clients; and Healthcare Services, which provides healthcare payment solutions.

United Bankshares Inc.

United Bankshares is a financial holding company. Through its banking subsidiary, United Bank, the company provides a range of commercial and retail banking services and products. The company operates in two business segments: community banking and mortgage banking. Through its community banking segment, the company provides range of banking products and services through various delivery channels. The mortgage banking segment engages primarily in the origination and acquisition of residential mortgages for sale into the secondary market though George Mason Mortgage, LLC, an indirectly owned subsidiary of the company

Wintrust Financial Corporation

Wintrust Financial is a financial holding company.Through its community banking segment, the company's banking subsidiaries provide community-oriented, personal and commercial banking services. Through its specialty finance segment, the company provides financing of insurance premiums for businesses and individuals; accounts receivable financing, out-sourced administrative services; and other finance businesses. Through its wealth management segment, the company provides a range of wealth management services including trust and investment services, tax-deferred like-kind exchange services, asset management, securities brokerage services and 401(k) and retirement plan services.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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