Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.42 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Add To Value, Cyclicals

The weight of the evidence remains positive and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. Value and cyclical Sectors remain our favorite areas to be invested, and recent bullish price and RS inflections within Energy and Financials suggest they are likely resuming their leadership status -- add exposure.

S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish as it hovers near potential resistance at the megaphone pattern. Short-term support levels to watch include 4175 and 4118, however we are constructive as long as the S&P 500 is above major 4000-4030 support.
Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. The cyclical value theme remains our primary focus, with the majority of our overweight Sectors generally classified under this theme (Energy, Financials, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation). Additionally, short-term bullish price and RS inflections for Energy and Financials suggests that these Sectors are resuming their leadership status following a healthy 1.5-month period of underperformance... see charts below and page 2.
Positives Outweigh Negatives. Small-caps (IWM) display short-term bullish price and RS inflections, cyclicals continue to outperform relative to defensives (RCD/RHS), commodities remain bullish, high yield spreads are near 14-year lows, and the US dollar is back near the low-end of its consolidation range. All these developments are consistent with a risk-on environment which is bullish for the broad market... see page 3.
Areas Of Concern. Semiconductors (SOXX, XSD) and software (IGV) have weakened considerably over the past
Underlyings
At Home Group Inc.

At Home Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a home decor superstore. The company's product mix includes home furnishings, which consists of accent furniture, furniture, mirrors, patio cushions, rugs and wall art. Accent decor consists of artificial flowers and trees, bath, bedding, candles, garden and outdoor decor, holiday accessories, home organization, pillows, pottery, vases and window treatments. The company operates its stores primarily in the South Central, Southeastern, Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern regions of the U.S. In addition, the company operates a distribution center and warehouse premises in Texas, which services its stores, and a second distribution center in Pennsylvania.

Bassett Furniture Industries Inc.

Bassett Furniture Industries is a retailer, manufacturer and marketer of branded home furnishings. The company's products are sold primarily through a network of the company-owned and licensee-owned branded stores under the Bassett Home Furnishings (BHF) name. The company's wholesale home furnishings segment is involved principally in the design, manufacture, sourcing, sale and distribution of furniture products to a network of BHF stores and independent furniture retailers. The company's Retail segment includes its store network of the company-owned stores and licensee-owned stores. The company's Logistical Services segment provides network line haul freight (middle mile) and warehousing, distribution and inventory management.

Beazer Homes USA Inc.

Beazer Homes USA is engaged as a homebuilder. The company's homebuilding operations consist of the design, sale, and construction of single-family and multi-family homes. The company purchases land or obtains an option to purchase land, which, in either case, requires certain site improvements prior to home construction. When available in certain markets, the company also buys finished lots that are ready for home construction. The company has investments with land developers, other homebuilders and financial partners to acquire land positions, to manage its risk profile and to utilize its capital base. The company also acts as the general contractor for the construction of its new home communities.

Blueknight Energy Partners LP

Century Communities Inc.

Century Communities is engaged in the development, design, construction, marketing and sale of single-family attached and detached homes. The company builds and sells homes under its Century Communities and Wade Jurney Homes brands. The company's Century Communities brand targets a range of buyer profiles including: first time, first and second time move up, and lifestyle homebuyers, and provides its homebuyers with the ability to personalize their homes through certain option and upgrade selections. The company's Wade Jurney Homes brand targets first time homebuyers, primarily sells homes through retail studios and over the internet and provides no option or upgrade selections.

Delek Logistics Partners

Enbridge Inc.

Enbridge is an energy transportation and distribution companyoperating in 5 segments: Liquids Pipelines, consists of common carrier and contract crude oil, natural gas liquids and refined products pipelines and terminals; Gas Distribution, of Co.'s natural gas utility operations; Gas Pipelines and Processi consists of investments in natural gas pipelines and processing facilities; Green Power and Transmission, consists of Co.'s investments in renewable energy assets and transmission facilities; and Energy Services, consist of physical commodity marketing activity and logistical services.

Ethan Allen Interiors Inc.

Ethan Allen Interiors, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ethan Allen Global, Inc., and Ethan Allen Global, Inc.'s subsidiaries, is an interior design company, manufacturer and retailer in the home furnishings marketplace. The company aligns its business into two reportable segments: Retail, which sells home furnishings and accents to consumers through a network of the company operated design centers; and Wholesale, which is principally involved in the development of the Ethan Allen brand and encompasses all aspects of design, manufacture, sourcing, marketing, sale, and distribution of the company's range of home furnishings and accents. The company's product line includes case goods, upholstery, and home accents.

Flexsteel Industries Inc.

Flexsteel Industries is a manufacturer, importer and marketer of residential and contract upholstered and wooden furniture products. With offerings for use in home, healthcare, and recreational seating, the company distributes its furniture throughout the United States and Canada through the company's sales force and various independent representatives. The company operates in one reportable segment, furniture products. The company's furniture products business involves the distribution of manufactured and imported products consisting of a line of upholstered and wooden furniture for residential and contract markets.

Green Brick Partners

Green Brick Partners is a homebuilding and land development company. The company acquires and develops land, provides land and construction financing to its controlled builders and participates in the profits of its builders. The company is engaged in homebuilding process, including land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing and sales and the creation of brand images at its residential neighborhoods and communities. The company sells finished lots to its controlled builders or option lots from third-party developers for its controlled builders' homebuilding operations and provides them with construction financing and strategic planning.

Green Plains Partners LP

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.

Hilton Grand Vacations is a timeshare company engaged in developing, marketing, selling and managing timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand. The company's operations mainly consist of: selling vacation ownership intervals for it and third parties; financing and servicing loans provided to consumers for their timeshare purchases; operating resorts; and managing its points-based Hilton Grand Vacations Club and Hilton Club exchange program. The company has properties located in vacation destinations such as the Orlando, Las Vegas, Hawaiian Islands, New York City, Washington D.C. and South Carolina. The company's segments are: real estate sales and financing and resort operations and club management.

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc

Hilton Worldwide Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in hospitality with operations organized in two operating segments: management and franchise, which includes all of the hotels the company manages for third-party owners, as well as all franchised hotels operated or managed by someone other than the company; and Ownership, which includes hotels that the company owned or leased or that are owned or leased by entities in which the company owns a noncontrolling financial interest. Hilton Honors is the company's guest loyalty program that rewards guests with points for each stay at nearly all of its properties, which are then redeemable for free nights and other goods and services.

Hooker Furniture Corp.

Hooker Furniture is a designer, marketer and importer of casegoods (wooden and metal furniture), leather furniture and fabric-upholstered furniture. The company is organized into two segments: Hooker Branded, which includes Hooker Casegoods that covers a range of design categories and includes home entertainment, home office, accent, dining and bedroom furniture in the upper-medium price points sold under the Hooker Furniture brand; and Home Meridian, which includes Accentrics Home, home furnishings centered around a mix of pieces and materials that provide a take on home fashion, and Samuel Lawrence Furniture, focuses on offerings in bedroom, dining room, home office and youth furnishings.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A

Hovnanian Enterprises, through its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, markets, and sells single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, urban infill, and active lifestyle homes in planned residential developments and is a builder of residential homes. The company has two operations: homebuilding and financial services. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage loans and title services to the customers of its homebuilding operations. The company markets and builds homes for first-time buyers, first-time and second-time move-up buyers, luxury buyers, active lifestyle buyers and empty nesters.

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP

KB Home

KB Home is a homebuilding company. The company builds a variety of homes designed primarily for first-time and first move-up, as well as second move-up and active adult homebuyers, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes and condominiums. The company's financial services operations provide various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where it builds homes and provide title services in certain of those markets. The company's financial services operations also provide mortgage banking services, including residential consumer mortgage loan originations, to its homebuyers indirectly through KBHS Home Loans, LLC, a joint venture the company formed with Stearns Lending, LLC.

Kinder Morgan Inc Class P

Kinder Morgan is an energy infrastructure company. The company's segments are: Natural Gas Pipelines, which includes the ownership and operation of, among others, main interstate and intrastate natural gas pipeline and storage systems; Products Pipelines, which includes the refined petroleum products, crude oil and condensate pipelines; Terminals, which includes the ownership and/or operation of, among others, liquids and bulk terminal facilities; and carbon dioxide (CO2), which includes the production, transportation and marketing of CO2, ownership interests in and/or operation of oil fields and gasoline processing plants in West Texas.

LEG Immobilien AG

Leg Immobilien is a real estate company engaged in the management of its residential property portfolio as well as the acquisition of housing portfolios. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s portfolio comprised 94,311 residential units, 1,031 commercial units and 22,903 garages and parking spaces. These assets are distributed across around 160 locations, most of which are in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany.

Lennar Corp. Cl B

Lovesac

Lovesac is a technology omni-channel company that designs, manufactures and sells furniture comprised of couches called Sactionals and foam beanbag chairs called Sacs. The company markets and sells its products through showrooms and online sales.

M/I Homes Inc.

M/I Homes is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family residential homes. The company designs, sells and builds single-family homes on developed lots, which it develops or purchases ready for home construction. The company also purchases undeveloped land to develop into developed lots for future construction of single-family homes and, on a limited basis, for sale to others. The company has two operations: homebuilding and financial services. The company's homebuilding operations have two reporting segments: the Northern and Southern regions. The company's financial services operations support its homebuilding operations by providing mortgage loans and title services to the customers of its homebuilding operations.

Marriott International Inc. Class A

Marriott International is a worldwide operator, franchisor, and licensor of hotel, residential and timeshare properties under various brand names at different price and service points. The company has operations in the following reportable business segments: North American Full-Service, which includes the company's Luxury and Premium properties located in United States and Canada; North American Limited-Service, which includes the company's Select properties located in United States and Canada; and Asia Pacific, which includes all properties in the company's Asia Pacific region.

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is a vacation company that provides vacation ownership, exchange, rental and resort and property management, along with related businesses, products and services. The company's reportable segments are; Vacation Ownership, which develops, markets, sells, rents and manages vacation ownership and related products under its licensed brands; and Exchange and Third-Party Management, which includes exchange networks and membership programs comprised of exchange, getaways, interval gold and interval platinum, club interval, sales and marketing support for interval international network resorts, and operational support for interval international network resorts.

Meritage Homes Corporation

Meritage Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in designing and building single-family homes. The company provides homes that are designed with a focus on first-time and first move-up buyers. The company also operates a title company, Carefree Title Agency, Inc. (Carefree Title). Carefree Title's core business includes title insurance and closing/settlement services the company provides to its homebuyers. The company operates an insurance broker, Meritage Homes Insurance Agency (Meritage Insurance). Meritage Insurance works in collaboration with insurance companies to provide homeowners insurance and other various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where the company builds homes.

Mohawk Industries Inc.

Mohawk Industries is a global flooring manufacturer for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The company has three segments: Global Ceramic, which designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets a line of ceramic, porcelain and natural stone tile products used for floor and wall applications; Flooring North America, which designs, manufactures, sources and distributes broadloom carpet, carpet tile, rugs and mats, carpet pad, laminate, medium-density fiberboard, luxury vinyl tile (LVT) and sheet vinyl; and Flooring Rest of the World, which designs, manufactures, sources and distributes laminate, LVT and sheet vinyl, wood flooring, broadloom carpet and carpet tile collections.

New Home Co. Inc.

The New Home Company is a homebuilder focused on the design, construction and sale of homes in metropolitan areas within select growth markets in California and Arizona, including Southern California, the San Francisco Bay area, metro Sacramento and the greater Phoenix area. The company's operations are organized into three segments: two homebuilding segments (Arizona and California) and fee building. The company's homebuilding operations acquire and develop land and construct and sell single-family attached and detached homes and may sell land. The company's fee building operations build homes and manage construction and sales related activities on behalf of third-party property owners and its joint ventures.

Pembina Pipeline Corporation

Pembina Pipeline has four operating segments: conventional pipelines business, which is a tariff-based operation consisting of pipelines and related facilities that deliver crude oil and natural gas liquids; oil sands and heavy oil business, which consists of the Syncrude Pipeline, the Cheecham Lateral and the Horizon Pipeline; midstream and marketing business, which consists of Co.'s direct and indirect interest in a storage operation, its direct interest in terminals, storage and hub services under a mixture of short, medium and long-term contractual arrangements; and gas services business which consists of natural gas gathering and processing facilities.

TC Energy Corporation

TransCanada is an energy company. Co. operates three business segments: natural gas pipeline, which transports natural gas across Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, and has regulated natural gas storage facilities in Michigan with a total capacity of 250 billion cubic ft.; liquids pipelines, which consists of wholly-owned and operated crude oil pipeline systems that connects Alberta and U.S. crude oil supplies to U.S. refining markets, as well as connecting U.S. crude oil supplies from the Cushing, OK hub to refining markets in the U.S Gulf Coast; and energy, which includes a portfolio of power generation assets in Canada and the U.S., and unregulated natural gas storage assets in Alberta.

TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL INC

Tempur Sealy International develops, manufactures, and markets bedding products. The company's portfolio of product brands includes Tempur?, Tempur-Pedic?, Sealy? featuring Posturepedic? Technology, Stearns & Foster? and Comfort Revolution?. The company operates in two segments: North America and International. The company's North America segment consists of Tempur and Sealy manufacturing and distribution subsidiaries and licensees located in United States and Canada. The company's International segment consists of Tempur and Sealy manufacturing and distribution subsidiaries, joint ventures and licensees located in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

Travel Plus Leisure Co

Tri Pointe Homes Inc.

TRI Pointe Group is engaged in the design, construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes through its portfolio of six brands across 10 states, including Maracay in Arizona, Pardee Homes in California and Nevada, Quadrant Homes in Washington, Trendmaker Homes in Texas, TRI Pointe Homes in California, Colorado and the Carolinas and Winchester Homes in Maryland and Virginia. The company has two businesses: homebuilding, in which the company acquires and develops land and constructs and sells single-family detached and attached homes; and financial services, which consists of mortgage financing, title and escrow services, and property and casualty insurance agency operations.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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