Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 220.60 For Business Accounts Only

Insights: Bullish Stocks

Equal-Weighted Retail is Bottoming -- Add Exposure

As part of the improving cyclical value theme, several of the down-and-out retail stocks are bottoming. This is depicted by bullish price and RS reversals in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), helped by easing US-China trade tensions. Below we lay out what we believe is a timely and compelling case to add exposure to retail at current levels.

• Broad Reversal of Fortune. Virtually all of our ~20 Retail Groups have staged an impressive turnaround, going through a 2-month bottoming process where they went from being bottom-barrel performers to now being in the upper-echelon in terms of relative strength. This broad-based improvement throughout all areas of retail gives us added confidence that prices are likely to continue moving higher... see the Relative Strength Ranking (RSR) table below.

• Easing US-China Trade Tensions; Troughing Economy. There was a retail uproar, and related stocks were hit accordingly, when the Trump administration announced tariffs on items such as clothing, footwear, toys, and electronics. Much of this is getting unwound as the US and China work through “phase one” of the trade deal, with the removal or delay of tariffs very much on the table, providing a catalyst for the retail industry. Additionally, several indicators are pointing to a troughing global economy, creating an environment where more than just Lululemon (LULU) and Target (TGT) can succeed.

In today's report we highlight our favorite technical setups, including: AN, BKE, BOOT, BURL, CAL, CHS, DBI, GES, JWN, RAD, ROST, SFM, TJX, and URBN.
Underlyings
AutoNation Inc.

AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The company provides a range of automotive products and services, including new vehicles, used vehicles, parts and service, which includes automotive repair and maintenance services as well as wholesale parts and collision businesses, and automotive finance and insurance products, which include vehicle service and other protection products, and the arranging of financing for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. The company owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in the United States, in main metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company has three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.

Boot Barn Holdings

Boot Barn Holdings is a retail chain focused on western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories. The company's stores, which are freestanding or located in strip centers, feature an assortment of brands and styles, coupled with store associates. The company's product offering is anchored by a selection of western and work boots and an assortment of coordinating apparel and accessories. The company also carries assortments of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry and accessories. The company's work assortment includes footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts for the physically demanding jobs.

Buckle Inc.

The Buckle is a retailer of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories for young men and women. The company markets a selection of mainly brand name casual apparel including denims, other casual bottoms, tops, sportswear, outerwear, accessories, and footwear. The company provides denims from brands such as Miss Me, Rock Revival, KanCan, Flying Monkey, and Levi's. The company also incorporates services such as hemming, gift wrapping, layaways, a guest loyalty program, the Buckle private label credit card, personalized stylist services, and an order system that allows stores to obtain specifically requested merchandise from other the company stores or from the company's online order fulfillment center.

BURLINGTON STORES INC.

Burlington Stores is a holding company. Through its indirect subsidiary, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation sells merchandise including: women's ready-to-wear apparel, accessories, footwear, menswear, youth apparel, baby, home, coats, beauty, toys and gifts. The company operates stores under the names Burlington Stores, Cohoes Fashions, Super Baby Depot, MJM Designer Shoes and an online store. Cohoes Fashions provides products similar to those offered by Burlington Stores. MJM Designer Shoes provides moderately priced designer and fashion shoes. The Super Baby Depot stores provides baby clothing, accessories, furniture and other merchandise in the middle to higher price range.

Caleres Inc.

Caleres is a footwear retailer and wholesaler. The company is engaged in the operation of retail shoe stores and e-commerce websites as well as the design, sourcing and marketing of footwear for women, men and children. The company's Famous Footwear segment includes its Famous Footwear stores, which features a selection of athletic, casual and dress shoes for the entire family. The company's Brand Portfolio segment provides retailers and consumers a portfolio of brands by designing, sourcing and marketing footwear for women and men at a variety of price points. The company's Brand Portfolio segment sells footwear on a wholesale basis to retailers as well as through its branded retail stores and e-commerce businesses.

Chico's FAS Inc.

Chico's FAS is a retailer of women's private branded, casual-to-dressy apparel, intimates and complementary accessories. The company operates under the Chico's, White House Black Market (WHBM) and Soma brand names. Chico's primarily sells private branded clothing focusing on women 45 and older. WHBM primarily sells clothing focusing on women 35 and older with clothing and accessory items including everyday basics, polished casual apparel, relaxed workwear, black and white pieces, and feminine all-occasion dresses. The Soma brand primarily sells lingerie, sleepwear and loungewear products focusing on women. The company's boutiques are located in the U.S., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Canada.

Designer Brands Inc. Class A

Designer Brands is a footwear and accessories designer, producer and retailer. The company has three segments: U.S. Retail, which includes stores operated in the U.S. under the DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse banner and its related e-commerce site; Canada Retail, which includes stores operated in Canada under The Shoe Company, Shoe Warehouse, and DSW Designer Shoe Warehouse banners and related e-commerce sites; and Brand Portfolio, which includes sales from wholesale, serving retailers as the design and buying agent for products under private labels, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce sites. The company separates its merchandise into three categories: women's footwear; men's footwear; and accessories and other.

Guess? Inc.

GUESS? designs, markets, distributes and licenses collections of apparel and accessories for men, women and children. The lines include collections of clothing, including jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, knitwear and intimate apparel. In addition, the company selectively grants licenses to design, manufacture and distribute a range of products that complement its apparel lines, including eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids' and infants' apparel, outerwear, fragrance, jewelry and other fashion accessories. The company's businesses are grouped into five reportable segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia and Licensing.

Nordstrom Inc.

Nordstrom is a fashion retailer providing a selection of brand-name and private label apparel, shoes, cosmetics and accessories for women, men, young adults and children. The company serves customers through two businesses: Full-Price and Off-Price. The company's operations consist of the company's Nordstrom U.S. and Canada full-line stores, U.S. and Canada Nordstrom Rack stores, Jeffrey boutiques, Last Chance clearance stores, Trunk Club clubhouses and Nordstrom Local. Additionally, customers are served online through Nordstrom.com, Nordstromrack.com, HauteLook and TrunkClub.com.

Rite Aid Corporation

Rite Aid is a pharmacy retail healthcare company. The company's Retail Pharmacy segment sells brand and generic prescription drugs, as well as an assortment of front-end products including health and beauty aids, personal care products, seasonal merchandise, and a private brand product line. The company's Pharmacy Services segment provides pharmacy benefit management (PBM) options through its EnvisionRxOptions and MedTrak PBMs, respectively. EnvisionRxOptions also provides mail-order and specialty pharmacy services through EnvisionPharmacies; a claims adjudication software platform in Laker Software; and a national Medicare Part D prescription drug plan through its EnvisionRx Plus product offering.

Ross Stores Inc.

Ross Stores and its subsidiaries operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores, which are Ross Dress for Less? (Ross) and dd's DISCOUNTS?. Ross provides name brand and designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 60% off department and specialty store regular prices every day. dd's DISCOUNTS provides name brand apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 70% off moderate department and discount store regular prices every day. Both of the company's Ross and dd's DISCOUNTS brands target women and men between the ages of 18 and 54.

Sprouts Farmers Markets Inc.

Sprouts Farmers Market operates as a healthy grocery store. The company categorizes the varieties of products it sells as perishable and non-perishable. Perishable product categories include produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery, floral and dairy and dairy alternatives. Non-perishable product categories include grocery, vitamins and supplements, bulk items, frozen foods, beer and wine, and natural health and body care. The company's stores include the following departments: packaged groceries, meat and seafood, deli, vitamins and supplements, dairy and dairy alternatives, bulk items, baked goods, frozen foods, natural health and body care, and beer and wine.

TJX Companies Inc

TJX Companies is an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. The company's segments comprised of: Marmaxx, which sells family apparel (including footwear and accessories), home fashions (including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware) and other merchandise; HomeGoods, which provides a range of home fashions, including home fashions, including furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop and cookware as well as pet, kids and gourmet food departments; TJX Canada, which operates the Winners, HomeSense and Marshalls chains in Canada; and TJX International, which operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe and the T.K. Maxx chain in Australia.

Urban Outfitters Inc.

Urban Outfitters is engaged in the operation of a general consumer product retail and wholesale business selling to customers through various channels including retail locations, websites, catalogs and mobile applications. The company has two segments: Retail, which consists of its Anthropologie, Bhldn, Free People, Terrain and Urban Outfitters brands and its Food and Beverage division; and Wholesale, which designs, develops and markets young women's contemporary casual apparel, intimates, FP Movement activewear and shoes under the Free People brand, home goods, including gifts, tabletop and textiles, under the Anthropologie brand and the BDG apparel collection under the Urban Outfitters brand.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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