Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.63 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher

Our outlook remains neutral and we continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&P 500. With that said, there has yet to be any meaningful deterioration, and a move up to test the August 2022 highs in the 4300-4325 range is not out of the question. Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes. Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.

Treasury Yields Reversing Downtrends, U.S. Dollar (DXY) and High Yield Spreads to Follow? Treasury yields (1-, 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year) all display multi-month breakouts or downtrend reversals; continued rising rates is likely to become a problem for the equity market indexes. Considering the generally strong positive correlation yields have with the DXY and high yield spreads, we are monitoring them for upside reversals as well -- something that would be a clear risk-off signal for the equity indexes... see charts below and page 3.
Index Overview. Important support levels we are watching include 4090 on the S&P 500, $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM); breaks/closes below these levels would indicate false breakouts and we would expect further downside ahead, but as long as they hold, the indexes lean bullish. Resistance levels we are watching include 4165-4200 and 4300-4325 on the S&P 500, $315 on QQQ, $202 on IWM, and 34,280 on the Dow Jones Industrials. Shorter-term, the S&P 500 and QQQ are forming 2-week bull flags, with both currently testing resistance... see pages 4-5.
Failed Breakouts? Last week (Feb. 7 Compass) we noted several areas of interest (ETFs) that were breaking above resistance, including QQQ, ARKK, XLY, IWM, and IYT. We also noted that we were watching for possible failed breakouts (which would be bearish), and we appear to be getting just that on ARKK as long as it stays below $41. For now, QQQ, XLY, IWM, and IYT are all holding above their breakout levels of $297, $148, $190, and $234, respectively... see pages 4-6.
Underlyings
Axis Capital Holdings Limited

Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Cincinnati Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in property casualty insurance. The company's market property casualty insurance group includes its subsidiaries, The Cincinnati Casualty Company and The Cincinnati Indemnity Company, which write business, homeowner and auto policies. The company's subsidiary, The Cincinnati Insurance Company conducts the business of the company's reinsurance assumed operations. Other subsidiaries include: The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company, which provides life insurance policies and fixed annuities; and The Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance Company, which provides excess and surplus lines insurance products.

CNA Financial Corporation

CNA Financial is an insurance holding company. The company's property and casualty and remaining life and group insurance operations are primarily conducted by its subsidiaries. The company's insurance products primarily include commercial property and casualty coverages, including surety. The company's services include warranty, risk management information services and claims administration. The company's commercial property and casualty underwriting operations in the United States consists of field underwriting locations and centralized processing operations which handle policy processing, billing and collection activities and also act as call centers to support service.

DHT Holdings Inc.

DroneShield

DroneShield is engaged in the development and commercialization of proprietary hardware and software acoustic technology for drone detection and security. Co.'s hardward and software detect drones up to 1km away and instantly alert users in real-time though multiple channels. Co. utilizes audio/acoustic signatures (obtained at the U.S. Department of Defence approved anechoic chamber) to detect drones more accurately when compared with traditional radar, radio frequency, camera, LIDAR and laser methods.

Euronav NV

Euronav is a provider of maritime shipping and offshore services engaged primarily in the transportation and storage of crude oil. As of Apr. 4, 2017, Co. owned and operated a modern fleet of 55 vessels (including four chartered-in vessels) with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 13.7 million deadweight tons, or dwt, consisting of 31 very large crude carriers, one ultra large crude carrier, 21 Suezmax vessels, and two floating, storage and offloading vessels. Co. has two operating segments: the operation of crude oil tankers on the international markets (tankers) and the floating production, storage and offloading operations.

Fidelity National Financial Inc. - FNF Group

Fidelity National Financial is a provider of title insurance, escrow and other title-related services, including trust activities, trustee sales guarantees, recordings and reconveyances and home warranty products and transaction services to the real estate and mortgage industries. The company has two segments: Title, which consists of the operations of the company's title insurance underwriters and related businesses which provide title insurance and escrow and other title-related services including trust activities, trustee sales guarantees, and home warranty products; and Corporate and Other, which includes the operations of the parent holding company, and the company's real estate technology subsidiaries.

First American Financial Corporation

First American Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the business of providing financial services through its segments. The title insurance and services segment issues title insurance policies on residential and commercial property; provides closing and/or escrow services; accommodates tax-deferred exchanges of real estate; provides access to title plant data and records; and provides appraisals and other valuation-related products and services, lien release and document custodial services, and warehouse lending services. The specialty insurance segment issues property and casualty insurance policies and sells home warranty products.

FRONTLINE PLC

GasLog Partners LP

Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc.

Helix Energy Solutions Group is an international offshore energy services company that provides specialty services to the offshore energy industry. The company has three business segments: well intervention, which includes vessels and equipment used to perform well intervention services primarily in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, the North Sea and West Africa; robotics, which includes remotely operated vehicles (ROVs), trenchers and ROVDrills designed to complement offshore construction and well intervention services; and production facilities, which includes the Helix Producer I, a floating production vessel, the Helix Fast Response System, and its ownership interest in Independence Hub, LLC.

Hilltop Holdings Inc.

Hilltop Holdings is a financial holding company. The company provides business and consumer banking services from offices located throughout Texas through its subsidiary, PlainsCapital Bank. The company has three business units: PlainsCapital Corporation, which provides banking and wealth, investment and treasury management services, as well as residential mortgage loans throughout the U.S.; Hilltop Securities Holdings LLC, which provides investment banking and other related financial services; and National Lloyds Corporation, which provides fire and homeowners insurance to low value dwellings and manufactured homes primarily in Texas and other areas of the southern U.S.

International Seaways Inc.

Oceaneering International Inc.

Oceaneering International is a provider of engineered services and products, primarily to the offshore oil and gas industry. The company's segments are: Energy Services and Products; and Advanced Technologies. The company's business segments within the Energy Services and Products business are remotely operated vehicles, subsea products, subsea projects and asset integrity. The company's Advanced Technologies segment consists of government; and commercial business units: Government services and products include engineering and related manufacturing in defense and space exploration activities. The company's commercial business unit provides a turnkey solution that includes program management, and engineering design.

Old Republic International Corporation

Old Republic International is a holding company engaged in the business of insurance underwriting and related services. Through its regulated insurance company subsidiaries, the company conducts its operations in three main segments: General Insurance Group, which is a commercial lines insurance business focused on liability insurance coverages; Title Insurance Group, which consists mainly of the issuance of policies to real estate purchasers and investors based upon searches of the public records, which contain information concerning interests in real property; and the Republic Financial Indemnity Group Run-off Business, which consists of mortgage guaranty and consumer credit indemnity operations.

Overseas Shipholding Group

Overseas Shipholding Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates a fleet of oceangoing vessels engaged in the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products in the U.S. Flag trades. The company has one reportable business segment. The company's U.S. Flag Fleet consists of various owned and chartered-in Jones Act Handysize Product Carriers and Articulated Tug Barges and non-Jones Act U.S. Flag Handysize Product Carriers that participate in the U.S. Maritime Security Program. Under the Jones Act, shipping between U.S. ports, including the movement of Alaskan crude oil to U.S. ports, is reserved for U.S. Flag vessels.

Scorpio Tankers Inc.

Selective Insurance Group Inc.

Selective Insurance Group has four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, which is comprised of property and casualty insurance products and services provided in the standard marketplace to commercial enterprises; Standard Personal Lines, which is comprised of property and casualty insurance products and services provided to individuals acquiring coverage in the standard marketplace; Excess and Surplus Lines, which is comprised of insurance products and services provided to customers who are unable to obtain coverage in the standard marketplace; and Investments, which invests the premiums collected by the company's insurance operations and amounts generated through its capital management strategies.

Subsea 7 S.A. ADS

TechnipFMC Plc

TechnipFMC is global leader in oil and gas projects, technologies, systems, and services. Co. offers subsea, surface, onshore, and offshore solutions for oil and gas projects. Co. serves customers worldwide. With Co.'s technologies and production systems, integrated expertise, and comprehensive solutions, Co. is transforming Co.'s clients' project economics. Co. is uniquely positioned to deliver greater efficiency across project lifecycles from concept to project delivery and beyond. Through innovative technologies and improved efficiencies, Co.'s offering unlocks new possibilities for Co.'s clients in developing their oil and gas resources.

Teekay Tankers

Tidewater Inc

Tidewater provides offshore marine support and transportation services to the global offshore energy industry through the operation of a fleet of marine service vessels. The company's vessels and associated vessel services provide support of several phases of offshore oil and natural gas exploration, field development and production. These services include towing of, and anchor handling for, mobile offshore drilling units; transporting supplies and personnel necessary to sustain drilling, workover and production activities; offshore construction and seismic and subsea support; and a variety of services such as pipe and cable laying.

White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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