Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 233.15 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Waiting on Small-Caps

This market continues to be dominated by signals that suggest we are in the early stages of a new bull phase, which we discuss below. At the same time, small-caps continue to be one area of the market that gives us some reason for pause as neither the Russell 2000 or S&P Small Cap 600 indexes have been able to make bullish price or RS inflections.

• Small-Caps Still Below Resistance. The major US large- and mid-cap indexes have all decisively broken out to either all-time highs or 52-week highs, leaving small-caps behind. This situation can only happen for so long because at some point small-caps will either drag down the rest of the market or, conversely, small-caps will join mid- and large-caps on the march to new highs. We would bet on the latter... see charts below.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. The Health Care (XLV) and Comm. Svcs. (XLC) GICS Sectors are the latest to hit new highs, exactly what we want to see to help confirm a new bull market -- broad participation. Health Care is finally getting a reprieve as Medicare for All concerns abate... see pages 2-3.

• KBW Bank Index. The KBW Bank Sector is bottoming and is one of the more attractive charts out there. This is a great signal as banks are the linchpin of the economy due to their role in business activity. Additionally, bullish inflections for the Banks have historically been a defining characteristic of bull markets... see page 3.

• Investment Banking/Brokerage; Tech Software. Brokerage stocks have been under pressure due to fee compression, however price and RS trends suggest now is the time to be adding selective exposure. Additionally, we are seeing timely entry points within Tech Software. Stocks highlighted: SCHW, UBS, BGCP, APPS, PAYC, and EPAY... see pages 4-5.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Financials: Large- and Small-Cap Casinos & Gaming (CD-23 & -24), FN-15 Banks, Super-Regional, and FN-24 Asset Management & Custody Banks, Large-Cap... see pages 13-29.
Underlyings
BANK OF AMERICA CORP

Bank of America is a bank and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company's segments include: Consumer Banking, which provides credit, banking and investment products and services; Global Wealth & Investment Management, which provides investment management, brokerage, banking and retirement products; Global Banking, which provides lending-related products and services, integrated working capital management and treasury solutions, and underwriting and advisory services; and Global Markets, which provides sales and trading services and research services.

BLACKROCK INC.

BlackRock is an investment management firm. The company provides a range of investment and technology services to institutional and retail clients worldwide. Products are provided directly and through intermediaries in a variety of vehicles, including open-end and closed-end mutual funds, iShares? exchange-traded funds, separate accounts, collective investment trusts and other pooled investment vehicles. The company also provides technology services, including the investment and risk management technology platform, Aladdin?, Aladdin Wealth, eFront, Cachematrix and FutureAdvisor, as well as advisory services and solutions to a base of institutional and wealth management clients.

Blackstone Group Inc.

Blackstone Group, together with its subsidiaries, is a global manager of private capital. The alternative asset management business includes the management of private equity funds, real estate funds, real estate investment trusts, funds of hedge funds, hedge funds, credit-focused funds, collateralized loan obligation vehicles, separately managed accounts and registered investment companies (collectively referred to as the Blackstone Funds). The company's business is organized into four segments: Real Estate, Private Equity, Hedge Fund Solutions and Credit.

Boyd Gaming Corporation

Boyd Gaming is a multi-jurisdictional gaming company. The company operates owned gaming entertainment properties in Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The company has three reportable business segments: Las Vegas Locals, which includes casinos that primarily serve the resident population of the Las Vegas metropolitan area; Downtown Las Vegas, focuses on gaming enthusiasts from Hawaii and tour and travel agents in Hawaii; and Midwest and South, which includes land-based casinos, dockside riverboat casinos, racinos and barge-based casinos. The company also operates a travel agency and a captive insurance company that underwrites travel-related insurance.

Caesars Entertainment Inc

Eldorado Resorts is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a gaming and hospitality company that owns and operates gaming facilities. The company's properties, which are located in Ohio, Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Mississippi, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri, feature slot machines and video lottery terminals, table games and hotel rooms. The company's gaming operations include hotels, restaurants, bars, entertainment, racing, retail shops and other services. The company also operates Racelinebet.com, a national account wagering service that provides online and telephone wagering on horse races.

Churchill Downs Incorporated

Churchill Downs is a racing, online wagering and gaming entertainment company. The company manages its operations through three reportable segments: Churchill Downs, Online Wagering, and Gaming. Churchill Downs includes live and historical pari-mutuel racing at Churchill Downs Racetrack and Derby City Gaming. Online Wagering includes the company's TwinSpires business and its online sports betting and iGaming business. Gaming includes casino properties and associated racetrack or jai alai facilities which support the casino license as applicable.

Comerica Incorporated

Comerica is a financial holding company, engaged in lending to and accepting deposits from businesses and individuals. The company's segments are: Business Bank, which provides commercial loans and lines of credit, deposits, cash management, capital market products, international trade finance, letters of credit, foreign exchange management services and loan syndication services; Retail Bank, which provides consumer lending, consumer deposit gathering and mortgage loan origination; and Wealth Management, which provides products and services consisting of fiduciary services, private banking, retirement services, investment management and advisory services, investment banking and brokerage services.

Fifth Third Bancorp

Fifth Third Bancorp is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides financial products and services to the commercial, financial, retail, governmental, educational, energy and healthcare sectors. The company's segments are: Commercial Banking, which provides credit intermediation, cash management and financial services; Branch Banking, which provides a range of deposit and loan products to individuals and small businesses; Consumer Lending, which includes the company's residential mortgage, automobile and other indirect lending activities; and Wealth and Asset Management, which provides a range of investment alternatives for individuals, companies and not-for-profit organizations.

International Game Technology PLC

KeyCorp

KeyCorp is a bank holding company. Through its principal subsidiary, KeyBank National Association and certain other subsidiaries, the company has the following main business segments: Consumer Bank, which serves individuals and small businesses by providing a variety of deposit and investment products, personal finance and financial wellness services, lending, mortgage and home equity, student loan refinancing, credit card, treasury services, and business advisory services; and Commercial Bank, which is focused principally on serving the needs of middle market clients in the following industry sectors, including consumer, energy, healthcare, industrial, public sector, real estate, and technology.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Las Vegas Sands is a developer of destination properties (Integrated Resorts) that feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, restaurants and other amenities. The company owns and operates Integrated Resorts in Asia and the United States. Through its ownership of Sands China Ltd., the company owns and operates properties including The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao. In Singapore, the company owns and operates the Marina Bay Sands. The company's Las Vegas Operating Properties includes The Venetian Resort Las Vegas and the Sands Expo Center.

MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates casino, hotel, and entertainment resorts across the United States and in Macau. The company's segments include: Las Vegas Strip Resorts, which consists of casino resorts such as Bellagio, MGM Grand Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, The Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, Excalibur, and Park MGM; Regional Operations, which consists of casino resorts such as MGM Grand Detroit, Beau Rivage, Gold Strike Tunica, Borgata, MGM National Harbor, MGM Springfield, Empire City, and MGM Northfield Park; and MGM China, which owns and operates casino resorts and the related gaming subconcession and land concessions.

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.

Monarch Casino & Resort, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Golden Road Motor Inn, Inc., owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel/casino facility in Reno, NV (the Atlantis). The company's wholly owned subsidiaries, High Desert Sunshine, Inc., Golden East, Inc. and Golden North, Inc., each owns separate parcels of land located proximate to the Atlantis. The Atlantis includes casino space, guest rooms and suites, food outlets, espresso and pastry bars, a health spa and salon with an enclosed pool, retail outlets providing clothing and gift shop merchandise, a family entertainment center, and banquet, convention and meeting room space.

Northern Trust Corporation

Northern Trust is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, including The Northern Trust Company, the company provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking solutions. The company focuses on managing and servicing client assets through two segments: Corporate and Institutional Services, which provides asset servicing and related services to corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors; and Wealth Management, which focuses on individuals and families, business owners, executives, retirees, and privately-held businesses in its target markets.

Penn National Gaming Inc.

Penn National Gaming is an owner and manager of gaming and racing facilities and video gaming terminal operations with a focus on slot machine entertainment. In addition, the company operates an interactive gaming division through its subsidiary, Penn Interactive Ventures, LLC. The company's segment's properties include Ameristar East Chicago, Hollywood Casino Bangor, 1st Jackpot Casino, Ameristar Vicksburg, Boomtown Biloxi, Boomtown Bossier City, Ameristar Black Hawk, Cactus Petes and Horseshu, Ameristar Council Bluffs, Argosy Casino Alton, Argosy Casino Riverside, Freehold Raceway, Retama Park Racetrack, Sam Houston Race Park and Valley Race Park, and Sanford-Orlando Kennel Club, among others.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

PNC Financial Services Group is a bank holding company. The company has businesses engaged in retail banking, including residential mortgage, corporate and institutional banking and asset management, providing its products and services nationally. The company's segments are: Retail Banking, which provides deposit, lending, brokerage, insurance services, investment management and cash management products and services; Corporate and Institutional Banking, which provides lending, treasury management, and capital markets-related products and services; Asset Management Group, which provides personal wealth management; and BlackRock, which provides a range of investment and technology services.

Regions Financial Corporation

Regions Financial is a banking holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company has the following segments: Corporate Bank, which represents its commercial banking functions including commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and investor real estate lending; Consumer Bank, which represents its branch network, including consumer banking products and services related to residential first mortgages, home equity lines and loans, branch small business loans, indirect loans, consumer credit cards and other consumer loans; and Wealth Management, which provides credit related products, trust and investment management, asset management, retirement and savings solutions and estate planning.

State Street Corporation

State Street is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial products and services to institutional investors. The company's clients include mutual funds, collective investment funds and other investment pools, corporate and public retirement plans, insurance companies, foundations, endowments and investment managers. The company's Investment Servicing line of business performs custody and related functions, such as providing institutional investors with clearing, settlement and payment services. The company's Investment Management line of business, through State Street Global Advisors, provides a range of investment management strategies and products for its clients.

SunTrust Banks Inc.

SunTrust Banks is a financial services holding company. Through its subsidiary, SunTrust Bank (the Bank), the company provides a line of financial services for consumers, businesses, corporations, institutions, and not-for-profit entities, both through branches (located primarily in Florida, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Maryland, South Carolina, and the District of Columbia) and through other digital and national delivery channels. The Bank provides deposit, credit, mortgage banking, and trust and investment services to its clients through a selection of channels, including branch, call center, Teller Connect? machines, automated teller machines, online, mobile, and tablet.

T. Rowe Price Group

T. Rowe Price Group is a financial services holding company that provides global investment management services. The company provide a range of United States mutual funds, subadvised funds, separately managed accounts, and other T. Rowe Price products. The company also provides certain investment advisory clients with related administrative services, including distribution, mutual fund transfer agent, accounting, and shareholder services; participant recordkeeping and transfer agent services for defined contribution retirement plans; brokerage; and trust services. The company also provide non-discretionary advisory planning services to fund shareholders and potential investors.

The Stars Group

Truist Financial Corporation

BB&T is a financial holding company. Through its bank subsidiary, Branch Banking and Trust Company, the company provides banking services to individuals, businesses and municipalities. The company provides loans and lease financing, including commercial and residential mortgages; permanent commercial real estate financing arrangements; loan servicing for third-party investors; direct consumer finance loans to individuals; credit card lending; automobile financing; and equipment financing. The company also provides other services, including deposits; discount and brokerage, annuities and mutual funds; life insurance, property and casualty insurance, health insurance and commercial general liability insurance.

U.S. Bancorp

U.S. Bancorp is a multi-state financial services holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services. The company also engages in credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing. The company's subsidiary, U.S. Bank National Association, is engaged in the general banking business, principally in domestic markets. The company's bank and trust subsidiaries provide a range of asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations and charitable organizations.

Wells Fargo & Company

Wells Fargo & Company is a financial and a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides banking, investment and mortgage products and services, as well as consumer and commercial finance. The company provides consumer financial products and services including checking and savings accounts, credit and debit cards, and automobile, student, mortgage and home equity and small business lending, as well as financial planning, private banking, investment management, and fiduciary services. The company also provides financial solutions including commercial loans and lines of credit, letters of credit, asset-based lending, trade financing, treasury management, and investment banking services.

Wynn Resorts Limited

Wynn Resorts is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, developer, and operator of resorts featuring hotel rooms, retail space, an array of dining and entertainment options, meeting and convention facilities, and gaming. Through its subsidiary, Wynn Macau, Limited, the company operates two integrated resorts in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau. In Las Vegas, NV, the company also operates and, with the exception of certain retail space, own Wynn Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor, an integrated resort in Everett, MA, adjacent to Boston.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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