Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.42 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Risk Appetites Improving; Watching Financials, Copper, US Dollar
Market dynamics remain largely healthy, and new developments continue to point to improving risk appetites. Still, Energy (XOP, RYE) is the only cyclical value Sector that has been able to decisively break to new price highs, while others remain in congestion. Therefore, our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall, and we see pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Risk Appetites Improving. We continue to see signs of improving risk appetites, including (1) new RS lows/underperformance from defensives such as Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), pharma (PJP, PPH), and telecom (IYZ), (2) small-caps beginning to outperform relative to large-caps, (3) China (MCHI, KWEB) displays a bullish RS reversal as price attempts to bottom, (4) high yield spreads are narrowing, (5) the 10-year Treasury yield is moving higher, (6) WTI crude oil is breaking above major long-term resistance at $77, (7) the Energy Sector (RYE and XOP) is breaking above major resistance at $47.50 and $100, respectively, (8) banks (KRE, KBE) display bullish price and RS reversals, and (9) Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), and Transportation (IYT) display bullish short-term RS reversals. This is risk-on behavior and is not what we would expect to see if the major averages were headed for a significant correction... see pages 3-4.
Watching Financials, Copper, and the US Dollar. Financials (XLF) are on the cusp of a breakout above $39, while copper is on the cusp of a breakout above $4.38; breakouts above their respective resistance levels would be major bullish developments for the broad market, while a failure to break out would mean more consolidation. The US dollar (DXY) is testing longer-term resistance at $94.70-95; as long as the DXY is below $95, it is likely to be a risk-on signal for stocks... see charts below.
S&P 500. The S&P 500 has struggled since breaking below its 50-day MA, a level that is now resistance. The S&P 500 is going through a normal pullback and forming a short-term falling wedge pattern. We expect consolidation to continue on the S&P 500, and are watching for support at 4300-4305 followed by 4257, 4233, and 4164. Alternatively, a break above 4430 would signal the pullback is over... see page 5.
Underlyings
BANK OF AMERICA CORP

Bank of America is a bank and a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of banking, investing, asset management and other financial and risk management products and services. The company's segments include: Consumer Banking, which provides credit, banking and investment products and services; Global Wealth & Investment Management, which provides investment management, brokerage, banking and retirement products; Global Banking, which provides lending-related products and services, integrated working capital management and treasury solutions, and underwriting and advisory services; and Global Markets, which provides sales and trading services and research services.

Bank7 Corp

Bank7 is a bank holding company. The company has a particular focus in the following loan categories commercial real estate lending, hospitality lending, energy lending, and commercial and industrial. The company also provides consumer lending services to individuals for personal and household purposes, including secured and unsecured term loans and home improvement loans. Consumer lending services include residential real estate loans and mortgage banking services, personal lines of credit, loans for the purchase of automobiles, and other installment loans. The company also provides deposit banking products, including commercial deposit services, commercial checking, money market, and other deposit accounts.

BOK Financial Corporation

BOK Financial is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides service banking in Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Northwest Arkansas, Colorado, Arizona, and Kansas/Missouri. The company's principal lines of business are: Commercial Banking, which includes lending, treasury and cash management services and customer risk management products; Consumer Banking, which retail lending and deposit services, lending and deposit services; and Wealth Management, which provides fiduciary services, private bank services and investment advisory services, as well as underwrites state and municipal securities and engages in brokerage and trading activities.

Cenovus Energy Inc.

Cenovus Energy is in the business of development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids ("NGLs") in Canada with refining operations in the U.S. Co. operates in two business segments: Upstream, which includes Co.'s development and production of crude oil, NGLs in Canada, is organized into two operations: Oil sands and conventional; and Refining and Marketing, which is focused on the refining of crude oil products into petroleum and chemical products at two refineries located in the U.S. This segment also markets Co.'s crude oil and natural gas, as well as third-party purchases and sales of product.

CNO Financial Group Inc.

CNO Financial Group is a holding company for a group of insurance companies. The company's Bankers Life segment underwrites, markets and distributes Medicare supplement insurance, interest-sensitive life insurance, life insurance, fixed annuities and long-term care insurance products. The company's Washington National segment underwrites, markets and distributes supplemental health and life insurance to middle-income consumers at home and at the worksite. The company's Colonial Penn segment markets primarily graded benefit and simplified issue life insurance directly to customers in the senior middle-income market through television advertising, direct mail, the internet and telemarketing.

Comerica Incorporated

Comerica is a financial holding company, engaged in lending to and accepting deposits from businesses and individuals. The company's segments are: Business Bank, which provides commercial loans and lines of credit, deposits, cash management, capital market products, international trade finance, letters of credit, foreign exchange management services and loan syndication services; Retail Bank, which provides consumer lending, consumer deposit gathering and mortgage loan origination; and Wealth Management, which provides products and services consisting of fiduciary services, private banking, retirement services, investment management and advisory services, investment banking and brokerage services.

CONOCOPHILLIPS

ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company engaged in exploring for, producing, transporting and marketing crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's segments include: Alaska, which operates in Alaska; Lower 48, which operates in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico; Canada, which operates in Alberta and British Columbia; Europe and North Africa, which consists of operations and exploration activities in Norway, the United Kingdom and Libya; Asia Pacific and Middle East, which operates in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Qatar, and Timor-Leste; and Other International, which operates in Colombia, Chile and Argentina.

Continental Resources Inc.

Continental Resources is an independent crude oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas mainly in the North, South and East regions of the U.S. The North region consists of properties north of Kansas and west of the Mississippi River and includes North Dakota Bakken, Montana Bakken, and the Red River units. The South region includes all properties south of Nebraska and west of the Mississippi River including various plays in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province and Sooner Trend Anadarko Canadian Kingfisher areas of Oklahoma. The East region is comprised of undeveloped leasehold acreage east of the Mississippi River.

Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a financial holding company and a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of products and services throughout various Texas markets. The company provides commercial and consumer banking services, as well as trust and investment management, insurance, brokerage, mutual funds, leasing, treasury management, capital markets advisory and item processing services. The company serves a variety of industries including, among others, energy, manufacturing, services, construction, retail, telecommunications, healthcare, military and transportation. The company's reportable operating segments are: Banking and Frost Wealth Advisors.

Devon Energy Corporation

Devon Energy is an independent energy company engaged primarily in the exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. The company's operations are concentrated in various onshore areas in United States. The company's areas of operation include Delaware Basin, Eagle Ford, Powder River Basin and the STACK development, located primarily in Oklahoma's Canadian, Kingfisher and Blaine counties.

EOG Resources Inc.

EOG Resources, together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas primarily in main producing basins in the United States, The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, The People's Republic of China, Canada and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Fifth Third Bancorp

Fifth Third Bancorp is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides financial products and services to the commercial, financial, retail, governmental, educational, energy and healthcare sectors. The company's segments are: Commercial Banking, which provides credit intermediation, cash management and financial services; Branch Banking, which provides a range of deposit and loan products to individuals and small businesses; Consumer Lending, which includes the company's residential mortgage, automobile and other indirect lending activities; and Wealth and Asset Management, which provides a range of investment alternatives for individuals, companies and not-for-profit organizations.

Hess Corporation

Hess is a global exploration and production company engaged in exploration, development, production, transportation, purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL), and natural gas with production operations located primarily in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia and Denmark. The company's Midstream operating segment provides fee-based services, including gathering, compressing and processing natural gas and fractionating NGL; gathering, terminaling, loading and transporting crude oil and NGL; storing and terminaling propane, and water handling services primarily in the Bakken shale play in the Williston Basin area of North Dakota.

Imperial Oil Limited

Imperial Oil is an integrated oil company. Co. is active in all phases of the petroleum industry in Canada, including the exploration for, and production and sale of, crude oil and natural gas. In Canada, Co. is a producer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum refiner and a marketer of petroleum products. Co. is also a producer of petrochemicals. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. had 1.57 billion barrels of oil-equivalent basis of net proved reserves, which consisted of 44.0 million barrels of liquids, 641.00 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 473.0 million barrels of synthetic oil, and 946.0 million barrels of bitumen.

INDEPENDENT BANK GROUP INC

Independent Bank Group is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiary, Independent Bank, the company provides a range of banking services to individual and corporate customers in the north, central and southeast Texas areas. The company is engaged in community banking activities, which include commercial and retail lending, deposit gathering, investment and liquidity management activities. The company's primary deposit products are demand deposits, money market accounts and certificates of deposit, and its primary lending products are commercial business and real estate, real estate mortgage and consumer loans.

Key Petroleum Limited

Key Petroleum is engaged in acquisition of petroleum permits, and the exploration of these permits with the objective of identifying economic oil and gas deposits.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum has three reporting segments: oil and gas, which explores for, develops and produces oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas; chemical, which mainly manufactures and markets basic chemicals (chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organics, potassium chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates and calcium chloride) and vinyls (vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride and ethylene); and marketing and midstream, which purchases, markets, gathers, processes, transports and stores oil, condensate, NGL, natural gas, carbon dioxide and power.

Ovintiv Inc

Encana is an energy producer that is focused on developing its multi-basin portfolio of oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas producing plays. The company's reportable segments are: Canadian Operations, which includes the exploration for, development of, and production of oil, NGLs, natural gas and other related activities within Canada; USA Operations, which includes the exploration for, development of, and production of natural gas, oil and NGLs and other related activities within the U.S.; and Market Optimization activities are managed by the Midstream, Marketing & Fundamentals team, which is primarily responsible for the sale of the company's proprietary production to third party customers.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company

Pioneer Natural Resources is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in oil and gas exploration and production. The company explores for, develops and produces oil, Natural Gas Liquids and gas within the United States, with operations in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company's portfolio of resources are located in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp oil field.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

PNC Financial Services Group is a bank holding company. The company has businesses engaged in retail banking, including residential mortgage, corporate and institutional banking and asset management, providing its products and services nationally. The company's segments are: Retail Banking, which provides deposit, lending, brokerage, insurance services, investment management and cash management products and services; Corporate and Institutional Banking, which provides lending, treasury management, and capital markets-related products and services; Asset Management Group, which provides personal wealth management; and BlackRock, which provides a range of investment and technology services.

Prosperity Bancshares Inc.(R)

Prosperity Bancshares is a financial holding company, engaged in providing a variety of financial products and services to small and medium-sized businesses and consumers. The company is a real estate lender with commercial real estate (including multifamily residential), one-to-four family residential and construction, land development and other land loans. The company also provides commercial loans, agricultural loans, loans for automobiles and other consumer durables, home equity loans, debit and credit cards, internet banking and other cash management services, mobile banking, trust and wealth management, retail brokerage services, mortgage banking services and automated telephone banking.

Regions Financial Corporation

Regions Financial is a banking holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company has the following segments: Corporate Bank, which represents its commercial banking functions including commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and investor real estate lending; Consumer Bank, which represents its branch network, including consumer banking products and services related to residential first mortgages, home equity lines and loans, branch small business loans, indirect loans, consumer credit cards and other consumer loans; and Wealth Management, which provides credit related products, trust and investment management, asset management, retirement and savings solutions and estate planning.

Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy is an energy company. Co.'s operations include oil sands development and upgrading, onshore and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Co.'s segments include: oil sands, which develop and produce synthetic crude oil and related products through the recovery and upgrading of bitumen; exploration and production, which include offshore activity, and the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and refining and marketing, which include the refining of crude oil products, and the distribution and marketing of these and other purchased products, as well as a lubricants plant.

Transilvania Broker de Asigurare SA

Truist Financial Corporation

Truist Financial is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiary, Truist Bank, the company provides a range of banking and trust services for consumer and commercial clients in its geographic markets. The company's consumer services include asset management, automobile lending, bankcard lending, consumer finance, home equity lending, home mortgage lending, insurance, investment brokerage services, mobile/online banking, and wealth management/private banking. The company's commercial services include asset based lending, asset management, association services, capital markets services, commercial deposit and treasury services, commercial finance, commercial mortgage lending, and supply chain financing.

Wall Financial Corporation

Wall Financial is engaged in the business of hotel operations, real estate development and real estate investment, mainly in Metro Vancouver and the Lower Mainland of Canada. Co. is focused on the development, acquisition and management of residential income producing properties, the development and sale of single and multi-family housing and the development and management of hotel properties. As of Jan 31 2011, Co. had 1,057 residential and commercial rental units and 1,050 hotel rooms.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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