Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 235.08 For Business Accounts Only

Insights: Bullish Stocks

Homebuilders decisively bottoming -- add exposure/overweight

Homebuilders have been one of our favorite themes in the market and we officially assigned an overweight to the Group in our 2/12/19 Compass. Based on the charts we believe outperformance for homebuilders has plenty of room to run. Below we lay out what we believe is a compelling case to add exposure at current levels.

• Substantial resistance for the 10-year Treasury yield. There is no doubt that falling yields have underpinned bottoming price and RS for homebuilders with more people willing to take on a mortgage at a lower rate. Looking ahead, the 10-year Treasury yield is near a substantial resistance area in the 2.60-2.63% range -- an area that we believe will hold as resistance. For this reason, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to the homebuilders.

• “Dr. Copper” is bottoming. Bottoming price action for copper is a sign that the economy is on the upswing and that recession is no longer a major concern. Higher demand for copper also serves to confirm the price and RS improvements for the homebuilders.

• Add exposure/overweight homebuilders. In today's report we highlight our favorite technical setups, including: LEN, NVR, PHM, TOL, KBH, TMHC, LGIH, MHO, WLH, and BZH. Buy.
Underlyings
Beazer Homes USA Inc.

Beazer Homes USA is engaged as a homebuilder. The company's homebuilding operations consist of the design, sale, and construction of single-family and multi-family homes. The company purchases land or obtains an option to purchase land, which, in either case, requires certain site improvements prior to home construction. When available in certain markets, the company also buys finished lots that are ready for home construction. The company has investments with land developers, other homebuilders and financial partners to acquire land positions, to manage its risk profile and to utilize its capital base. The company also acts as the general contractor for the construction of its new home communities.

Lennar Corporation Class A

Lennar is a homebuilder in the United States, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. The company's homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes as well as the purchase, development and sale of residential land directly and through unconsolidated entities in which it has investments. The company operates under the Lennar brand name. The company creates and participates in joint ventures that acquire and develop land for its homebuilding operations, for sale to third parties or for use in the ventures' own homebuilding operations.

LGI Homes Inc.

LGI Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, and Nevada. The company's product offerings include entry-level homes, including both detached homes and townhomes, and move-up homes sold, which are sold under its LGI Homes brand, and its luxury series homes, which are sold under its Terrata Homes brand. The company's homebuilding operations are organized and managed by seven divisions: West, Northwest, Central, Midwest, Florida, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

M/I Homes Inc.

M/I Homes is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family residential homes. The company designs, sells and builds single-family homes on developed lots, which it develops or purchases ready for home construction. The company also purchases undeveloped land to develop into developed lots for future construction of single-family homes and, on a limited basis, for sale to others. The company has two operations: homebuilding and financial services. The company's homebuilding operations have two reporting segments: the Northern and Southern regions. The company's financial services operations support its homebuilding operations by providing mortgage loans and title services to the customers of its homebuilding operations.

NVR Inc.

NVR is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are constructed on a pre-sold basis. The company conducts its homebuilding activities directly. The company's homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three trade names: Ryan Homes, which is marketed primarily to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes, which are marketed primarily to move-up and luxury buyers. The company's mortgage banking operations also include separate subsidiaries that broker title insurance and perform title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings.

PulteGroup Inc.

PulteGroup through its subsidiaries is engaged in the homebuilding business. The company also has mortgage banking operations, conducted principally through its susidiary, Pulte Mortgage LLC, and title and insurance brokerage operations. The company's homebuilding business includes the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes within the United States. The company provides a variety of home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes at different prices and with varying levels of options and amenities to its customer groups: first-time, move-up, and active adult.

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

Taylor Morrison Home is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates a residential homebuilding business and is a developer of lifestyle communities. The company provides a variety of homes across a range of price points. The company operates under the Taylor Morrison and Darling Homes brand names. The company also provides financial services to customers through its mortgage subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Home Funding, LLC, title insurance and closing settlement services through its title company, Inspired Title Services, LLC, and homeowner's insurance policies through its insurance agency, Taylor Morrison Insurance Services, LLC. The company's segments are: East, Central, West and Financial Services.

Toll Brothers Inc.

Toll Brothers designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges financing for residential single-family detached, attached home, master planned resort-style golf, and urban communities. The company also designs, builds, markets, and sells urban condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living?. The company operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, golf course development, and landscaping subsidiaries. The company also operates its own security company, TBI Smart Home Solutions, which provides homeowners with home automation and technology options. In addition, the company operates its own lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations.

William Lyon Homes Class A

Lyon (William) Homes is a regional homebuilder. The company is primarily engaged in the design, construction, marketing and sale of single-family detached and attached homes in California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Texas. The company's primary markets include Orange County, Los Angeles, the Inland Empire, the San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Denver, Seattle, Portland, Austin and San Antonio. The company builds and sells across a range of product lines at a variety of price points with sales to entry-level, first-time move-up and second-time move-up homebuyers, as well as a luxury brand and an active adult target segment.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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